Warfare is Bloody at the Best of Times

As Russia bashes its troops against Ukraine's defensive belt, we seek alternative in maneuver to avoid that bloody fate. War is an all-of-the-above sort of endeavor where three basic forms of ground warfare blend into each other and trade places in what is most possible in any given time and place.

The flavors of ground warfare:

Military Science nerds will inevitably quibble over the above definitions and conceptions. Nevertheless, I think it provides a rough shorthand guide to how these ‘forms’ of warfare are conceived, especially by western militaries on a day-to-day level.

Do read it all. I added my two cents for avoiding stalemate in this Army article based on learning to cope with and overcome attritional warfare on the World War I Western Front to restore maneuver.

Have no doubt that attrition is a part of ground warfare. But it should not be the totality of ground warfare.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Table from the cited article. 

The FPV Suicide Drone is a Winter War of 2022 "10" and Great Power "7"

Persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) makes loitering FPV suicide drones effective. Loitering suicide drones are not the only means to exploit the surveillance. If your ISR is persistent, you can hit fleeting targets with other types of weapons.

Singing the praises of suicide drones: 

Loitering munitions are aerial weapons that can stay in the air while they search for a target, with some capable of returning to base in the case of unsuccessful target identification. While they operate similarly to armed drones, their self-destructive capabilities are what set them apart. Loitering munitions initially only played a limited role in the war in Ukraine, but the scope and scale of their use has grown dramatically such that they have become a key capability for modern militaries globally. 

If you have the information that the persistent battlefield ISR provides, couldn't other weapons provide the attack options? And might those weapons be superior to the FPV suicide drones once drone counter-measures spread through military formations?

Will it make sense to rely on manpower-intensive drone units that launch short-range FPV loitering munitions all along the front? Or will it make more sense to mostly use missiles from ground, air, and sea launchers as well as air-dropped glide bombs? High-altitude balloons could be a launch platform, too. 

These means of launching loitering munitions will provide the range to concentrate the loitering munitions and reach deep behind the lines, evading frontline short-range counter-measures.

Not that cheap FPV suicide drones--likely AI-flown--won't be part of a expanded combined arms effort. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Image from the article credited to Sergey Dzyuba via Shutterstock.com.

Spare a Little Nuance for Vietnam's Position

Vietnam is not aligning with Russia against America. China is the party that should worry.

Vietnam is buying Russian Su-35 fighter planes:

Vietnam has significantly increased its military purchases from Russia despite US efforts to counter Moscow’s war economy—and has done so using concealed financial channels, according to an investigation by The New York Times on October 27.

The probe, based on internal documents from Russian state exporter Rostec and interviews with officials from Vietnam, the US, and elsewhere, offers a rare view into how Vietnam’s willingness to buy Russian systems has quietly tipped its strategic alignment. ... 

Vietnam has historically depended on Soviet and Russian arms, but its current initiative is seen as a broader geopolitical shift: Hanoi is diversifying suppliers and hedging between Beijing, Moscow, and Washington as regional tensions intensify.

This is not an anti-American shift by Vietnam.Vietnam uses Russian weapons. It is difficult to switch suppliers rapidly. And Vietnam needs to counter looming China--not distant America. I see this arms deal as reinforcing Vietnam's anti-China posture. 

Breathe, people. And work up a little nuance.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE   Map from https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/red-against-red.html with my country notations added.

Run Away: INDOPACOM Edition

Ah, nuanced and--dare I say sophisticated--retreat from China is on the menu today. For so many Americans, there is always a greater threat we must prepare to face than the one standing in front of us.

Blaming America's "pivot" to the Pacific for increasing tensions:

The United States does not need to increase its military footprint in Asia to secure its core interests: defending the homeland and assuring American economic prosperity. Instead, U.S. national and regional security would be better protected by a reduced U.S. military presence alongside continued investment to help allies take responsibility for their own defence burden. Such a strategy will have its detractors, in Washington and in the region, but it will benefit all parties while dramatically reducing the risk of major power war. 

That is insane. How are things better if China's neighbors alone are too weak to stop China's territorial ambitions? By averting our eyes and distracting ourselves on TikTok?

One, America's pivot has consisted of prioritizing forces in the Pacific and increasing their quality; while force levels in Europe and the Middle East declined. 

Two, passivity in the face of aggression (a form of retreat) looks like calm--until it doesn't. 

And three, did I call it, or what?

China is the problem in Asia--not America. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Friendly Net Fairies Are Not Real

Threats to America are not all military threats. Recognizing the need to fight those non-military threats is good. Vital even. Equally vital is not thinking the tools to fight those "4th generation warfare" non-military threats are the right tools to defeat military threats. Or thinking that optimizing the military to fight non-military threats is wise.

I'm good on defeating non-state and non-military threats to America that are being called 4th generation warfare:

Because 4GW is, at its essence, a battle for legitimacy, and Cultural Marxism is its domestic vanguard. External 4GW threats like narco-invasions or unassimilated migrations succeed only when they exploit internal fractures—precisely the fissures widened by cultural subversion. A military schooled solely in generations of war, without grasping how Cultural Marxism preconditions the battlespace, will treat symptoms (sinking boats, sealing borders) while ignoring the disease: a society whose loyalty to the state frays under relentless ideological assault.  

What I worry about is that calling the fight against that kind of threat a new type of "war" confuses people into thinking the means of fighting that threat translate to defeating peer enemy military threats. 

The whole 4G Warfare thing has a "let the net fairies win for us" vibe. [WARNING: High rant-to-dignified ratio]

Moving from first to third generation warfare did not change the armies that evolved through those eras into something other than armies. While many silver-bullet advocates through the ages have championed a single weapon system as the key to avoiding hard and bloody wars, I will at least grant credit to 4th generation advocates for creating a more amorphous networked "solution" that avoids an easy target for rebuke. 

Dispersing and networking our troops to fight with less physical contact is absolutely necessary. But they are still soldiers. Turning them into something other than soldiers is 1G suicidal.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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The Winter War of 2022 Seeks to Escape Stalemate

Are the Russians and Ukrainians going to build the ability to move the front in wholesale scales as Russia initially did and as Ukraine did later in 2022? It doesn't really look like it. 

The war goes on. The hot spot of the week continues to be Pokrovsk and the nearly pinched Ukrainian salient east and southeast of that wrecked city. Russia is still trying to capture it. 

Russian and Ukrainian air campaigns take a toll as they expand in scope and volume. The Russians bleed heavily to claw their way forward at a pace so slow as to defy comprehension that their troops keep advancing into death. And Ukraine's infantry shortage continues, flaying my hope that Ukraine has been holding back infantry to form a strategic reserve. Is either side capable of breaking out of the ground stalemate somehow?

RUSI has a report on emerging method of restoring maneuver in the Winter War of 2022. The ability to mass effects to counter massed forces has crippled operations. 

Russia has responded with better controlled fires and infiltration of expendable poor quality infantry to slowly advance despite heavy casualties.

Ukraine has responded by going on the defensive (local counter-attacks excepted) to preserve scarce infantry with a thin front line and inflict losses on the attacking Russians using firepower with an emphasis on small drones that they can build themselves. 

Ukraine makes Russia pay a heavy price to attack; but Ukraine's response enables Russia's response to "work".

Clearly, Russia hopes to eventually overwhelm the Ukrainians; and Ukraine hopes to eventually exhaust the Russians. Despite these changes, I still don't know who will be proven correct.

To me, it doesn't seem like the Russians are trying to rebuild a mobile capability as it is trying to be a more effective bulldozer. Ukraine is trying to restore some movement (back to RUSI):

Ukrainian commanders have divided their operations to seize a contested sector into approximately seven phases, usually spanning five to 10 days of operations. This practice does not constitute doctrine but is rather a synthesis of how multiple officers described their approach to the author, although their exact language varied. To seize a contested sector, the force must survey it, isolate it, degrade the enemy, fix their forces, suppress them, close and destroy them, and then consolidate control of the sector. These phases are described below.

The illustration at the top from the report shows the enemy forces that help define this type of operation. But it doesn't seem that different--other than having armored vehicle support to reduce casualties--from Russia's new method of attack that uses air and ground fires plus drone strikes behind Ukrainian lines in order to disrupt supply and reinforcements for forward units, and make them vulnerable to attack.

What is missing is exploiting rather than simply consolidating the gains after destroying the enemy in the contested sector. We shall see. 

But what the combatants are doing nearly four years into the war reinforces my caution in Army magazine about drawing firm lessons for organizing, equipping, and employing the Army from a war that isn't even over yet. I based my warning on adaptations for the World War I Western Front.

But to be fair, the report is about emerging lessons. Work the problem. Let's not get over our skis in the PowerPoint presentations. 

UPDATE (Thursday): The idea that America is refusing to pressure Russia into ending the war is ridiculous given America's role in arming Ukraine and providing intelligence which results in massive Russian casualties, equipment losses, and economic hardship. No pressure? Seriously?? 

UPDATE (Friday): Zelensky has received the draft deal worked out with Russia's tilted details. Zelensky does not like it. I'm sure I wouldn't, too. 

But it is not an ultimatum to Ukraine. It seems like envoy Witkoff has the role of "good cop" will Secretary of State Rubio has the "bad cop" role of saying this is a garbage draft.

And I can't help but suspect that when Russia turns down a counter-proposal, Tomahawk cruise missiles will secretly arrive in Ukraine. 

Trump wants a deal that rules out NATO membership, cuts Ukraine's military, and concedes territory to Russia. That doesn't seem controversial. NATO membership can be withheld to get Russia to behave, obviously Ukraine will demobilize reserves to some extent, and I don't see Ukraine able to take back all--or even some--of its territory. But the latter doesn't mean legally recognizing the loss.

We'll see. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

NOTE: Image from the RUSI report.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: A Crude Counter-measure to Drones

In case you missed it on Substack: Does the Navy Force Structure Match its Doctrine?

In case you missed it on Substack: We Will Detect Chinese Preparations to Invade Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: The Tip of the Spear is Not the Entire Spear

The Army must transform as it has in the past. Indeed. But don't mistake as solutions the technological delusions the Army had to reject to transform in the past. Maintain the foundation of combined arms fighting and examine the lessons of Ukraine for the Army's needs, as I cautioned in Army magazine.  

It takes a village to raise cannon fodder.

Adding AI to suicide drones. 

Japan is shifting automobile production from China to India. 

Boy, Islamist hate escalated quickly in Britain: "The crowd with the blood of Jews in its nostrils flew many flags tonight: that of Palestine, that of Lebanon, that of Kashmir. One that was notable by its absence was the flag of Great Britain[.]"(tip to Instapundit): 

 

I suspect the judge wrongly rejected the president's use of the National Guard to protect federal property in cities that fail to adequately protect them and their lawful activities.

If American threats to use military force prompts Nigeria to protect its Christians from Islamic violence, good. And "invasion" talk is silly. And Al Jazeera just says the killings are "right-wing" allegations rather than the ongoing murderous ethnic cleansing that has made most of the Islamic world Infidel-free.

Sh*t got real: "The Philippine Marine Corps unveiled its first BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missile battery and future plans to enhance coastal defense on Friday[.]"

I doubt the Royal Navy will get much bigger. But at least its surface combatants should get more lethal individually. 

Presidential tariff powers are under Supreme Court review. I suspect Trump exceeded his authority. I hoped he'd leverage better trade terms before it was struck down. Generally, I don't like tariffs. On the other hand, I'm often shocked not at what presidents do that violate the law but do what is perfectly legal. 

Can the Marines evolve away from Force Design and modernize through the wreckage of that radical transformation? Of course, there is a way to keep the ground-based anti-ship support the Navy needs. In less exposed positions, of course.

Will the French National Rally break up the European Union if it takes power? Will it reject NATO? France has long been rogue or absent in NATO. As for the EU, Stop. Don't. Come back:
 

Does Iran's Tehran problem represent what is coming for all of Iran?

Israeli strikes on Hezbollah shouldn't inspire fear of a new war. Hezbollah rearming to fight again and undermine Lebanon should inspire fear of a new war. 

The West still won't admit what drives Islamist terror. Sadly--and suicidally--the "Why do they hate us?" questions always end with the same answer in too much of the West--"We deserve their hate."

Insurrection with foreign assistance? Tip to Instapundit. You can say a lot of stupid things under our Constitution. I'm not sure what bringing in foreign actors to support your "talk" implies. 

How gangs go from a law enforcement problem to an insurrection problem: "A Latin street gang in Chicago is reportedly telling its members to shoot federal immigration officers on sight, escalating the already highly dangerous and volatile situation in Chicago." Big--if true. But be careful out there. 

Is Russia mobilizing reservists for border defense missions or is it an avenue to funnel cannon fodder into the frontline?

America is "chipping away" at Russian influence in Central Asia. Just don't turn it over to China. And maybe if Russia pulls it Putin out of its buttocks and stops attacking Ukraine and demonizing NATO, our role could be helping Russia resist China. 

To boldly go: "There might be solid tactical reasons to put Space Force personnel in orbit, argues a new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies." Bring on SMOD!

When you think about a "calculated" risk approach to defense acquisition, consider the risk we've had with the old approach that has given us cost-overruns and long develop times that have spent money without getting assets in a timely manner--or at all.

The persistent accusation that Trump's foreign policy is isolationist is just wrong. Mind you, some of his supporters are. As are some on the left.

Pentagon officers: "adversaries are likely to exploit a natural flaw in artificial intelligence chatbots to inject instructions for stealing files, distorting public opinion or otherwise betraying trusted users." Indeed. 

On the surface an American base in Israel to monitor a Gaza peace seems unlikely. On the other hand, it would be easier for Arab countries willing to help suppress Hamas if they operated out of an American rather than an Israeli base. [LATER: I heard that is not happening.]

New German P-8A ASW/maritime patrol aircraft will deploy to Iceland and Norway to prevent Russian forces from reaching the North Atlantic. 

When you are on a Mission from Allah, those deemed insufficiently holy are just as much an enemy as Westerners are: "As many as 200 terrorists were killed in a turf war on Sunday between rival jihadists in north-east Nigeria."

Just because the Army wrongly said super carriers are obsolete 80 years ago doesn't mean that carriers are fully relevant today. One, I reject the argument about carrier damage resilience; and two, super carriers are an asset in only one of two major missions they conduct. 

Ukraine uses their Western fighter planes for knocking down Russian missiles and and attack drones.

The Houthi claim their missile attacks on Israel and Red Sea interdiction campaign is over (for now). Have the interdiction and sanctions against the supply line to Iran following Western air strikes had an effect?

Cheap drones are an interesting form of cheap strike ammunition (that has vulnerabilities that shells and rockets don't have), but they can't do everything. Here's the really high end: "A Mach-6 ISR/strike jet could compress decision cycles, pierce dense air defenses, and bridge satellites, drones, and shooters." 

Russia showed off their Su-57 weapons bay fully loaded. Another super weapon?

Uh oh: "A car explosion near the historic Red Fort in India’s capital on Monday killed eight people and injured at least 19 others, police in New Delhi said." If Pakistan is behind this, adjust your pucker factor accordingly. Both have nuclear missiles.

Russia's 2016 election interference was crude, had limited appeal and reach, and wanted to sow chaos and undermine the appeal of democracy abroad. The government-owned BBC's 2024 election interference was slick disinformation that reached over 20% of Americans, seeking to defeat one candidate. Discuss.

If you wonder what the objective of Islam's murder, persecution, and ethnic cleansing of Christians around the world, recall that the modern Middle East was once the center of Christianity. Until Islamic armies swept in and began persecuting, murdering, and cleansing the Christians into oblivion.

Some time ago, I speculated on means to put small aerial drones near enemy air fields. Little did I know how easy it would be for our enemies to do that. 

This seems prudent: "American Marines and soldiers are once again rucking through the Panamanian jungle, for the first time in more than two decades."

Russia's Baltic Sea fleet will lead a short but exciting life if it leaves port. And then NATO states can project power into the Baltic Sea littorals. 

Plans to change the 2-man B-21 crew to have a pilot and a weapon system officer suggests a multi-mission role for the plane. That makes sense. Anti-ship capability would be extremely useful. And would there be a fighter version?

Will AI cause more chaos than benefits? I suspect that is so. An AI will need to be air-gapped, I suspect, with curated and screened information. That will make it less effective. But it will make it less vulnerable to sowing chaos by sucking in new information all the time. So advantage air gap. Tip to Instapundit.

How much advance notice do they need to defeat threats? "the U.S. Army’s Northern Command has formed an operational team to rapidly counter drone threats to military bases within the United States." 

CONUS is no longer a sanctuary. So yes, critical infrastructure at home must be resilient. 

Europe allowed itself to be reliant on Russian energy. Will this work now? "Britain recently sanctioned 135 oil tanker ships as part of a crackdown on Russian efforts to sell oil." 

Russia is a more corrupt version of Ukraine. The West pressures Ukraine to fight it: "Ukraine's energy and justice ministers resigned on Wednesday over their alleged involvement in a sweeping corruption scandal in the country's energy sector." Ukraine needs to be much less corrupt than Russia to survive.

If being run by mullahs lets Allah do this, what use are mullahs: "President Masoud Pezeshkian has cautioned that if rainfall does not arrive by December, the government must start rationing water in Tehran."

China tightens its economic grip on Venezuela. I'm not sure if I should worry about this or laugh at China pursuing fool's gold there.

'Uge. If true. Or did China proliferate the precursor production it once provided Fentanyl cartels?

Coast Guard recruiting is booming.

Given that the IAEA was only able to inspect certain Iranian facilities, I doubt we ever knew the level of Iranian uranium enrichment. 

SIGINT: "A Royal Air Force RC-135 surveillance aircraft was deployed today to monitor Russian forces in occupied Ukraine." This has long been key for Ukrainian targeting. 

Even if America does nothing, we are costing broke Venezuela money it doesn't have. 

Will China's next carrier be nuclear powered?  More evidence that China does not plan a war with America? With due respect for the reality that intentions can change rapidly, of course.

FFS: "Pakistan’s parliament has passed a controversial amendment to its constitution that will expand the powers of the army chief and grant him lifelong legal immunity while limiting the independence of the supreme court[.]" The parasite sucks on the host even harder.

Oh? "The European Union is working to establish an intelligence unit under Commission President Ursula von der Leyen[.]" What could possibly go wrong? To be fair, people don't suppress themselves.

The military delivers aid to the Philippines after typhoons. Disaster relief is something our military does. And it is good practice for unanticipated military crises. 

The EU is unhappy with Germany's planned rearmament. But as the article notes, I have doubts if Germany--or a lot of other European states--can recruit the personnel for their plans.

Taiwan upgrades its defenses. They should prepare like their lives depend on it.

Light bulb? "A recent Pentagon directive officially broadens the responsibility of irregular warfare (IW) well beyond the remit of special operations forces, in a move that former practicioners and experts said could be a significant development for America’s posture in the gray zone[.]" Well ... yeah. and hurry up.

Will China really practice on smaller targets before taking on the big mission of invading Taiwan? Sounds like it could be a comforting delusion. Remember, China needs to defeat Taiwan and only delay America to win that big mission. China might still lose, but we'll have the big war. [I might have noted this before]

The problem in Europe is the lack of an environment for innovation and not getting what they have at continental scale. For the European Union, every problem--whether real or imaginary--must be solved with more EU. FFS, America-led NATO prevents Europe from being carved up.

America and Saudi Arabia draw closer: "A strong U.S.–Saudi defense partnership helps deter hostile actors, protect shipping lanes and secure global energy supplies that sustain the world economy." Did I call it, or what?

Is America standing down in the Pacific to get China's help to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Perhaps there is a deal. But with America's Asian allies rearming, I don't see a practical difference between a "containment" strategy abandoned and a new "balance of power" strategy. Also, NATO is "weakened"??

No longer fixated on the DMZ: "Destroyers from the South Korean Navy’s new surface action formation held the first fleet-level maritime training exercise over the weekend in a demonstration of Seoul’s growing blue water naval capabilities." I noticed the shift long ago. 

Any problems with Russian influence in Kazakhstan are the fault of Putin for destroying Russia's military, economy, and reputation in his nearly four-year-old invasion of Ukraine. Chess master, my butt. 

Huh: "An Iranian man who set himself on fire after municipal workers shut down his family's food stand has died from his injuries, prompting the country’s president to order an investigation." This is how the Arab Spring started in Tunis. 

Germany seeks to overcome reluctance to enroll in Germany's military. 

Define "us" please: "Describing President Donald Trump as a 'barbarian' who 'wants to frighten us,' Petro, a former Marxist revolutionary ... , called the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean 'undoubtedly an aggression against Latin America.'" As one would expect, we got more of what we rewarded. 

Whether or not the PLA Navy is strong, it looks strong. I've long said China's military is not as good as its shiny image projects. The question is whether it is good enough for its mission. Could the mission be looking strong?

The State Department designated four European Antifa groups as foreign terrorist organizations. We'll see how the ratlines across the Atlantic are followed. Tip to Instapundit.

I suspect that solving the problems of AWACs-type aircraft vulnerability in favor of the so-called safety of space is an illusion. The U.S. should not have abandoned support for the NATO E-7 aircraft program.

France unveiled the latest version of its ramjet-powered, nuclear-armed air-to-surface cruise missile. 

Not nice on ice: "Canada’s domestic spy agency says Russia and China have a “significant intelligence interest” in Canada’s Arctic, and are targeting both the country’s government and its private sector." Just don't stink on ice, Canada. 

This analysis is silly. Iran's pursuit of nukes is the cause of Western hopes for regime change--not the protection against it. And nukes aren't going to deter Israeli one-off strikes on those who host terrorists--Israeli nukes deter their nuclear weapons threats. If the Saudis want nukes, it's due to worry about Iran.

The mouse that roared on Russian oil export sanctions: "Norway is an enthusiastic enforcer of these sanctions because it has a growing list of complaints about Russian misbehavior." 

Fingers crossed: "Internet chatter about what was going on in Ukraine made it more difficult for Russia to obtain soldiers." 

South China Sea: "Marine Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadron (VMU) 1, an Arizona-based unit formation equipped with MQ-9A Reapers, was sent to the Southeast Asian nation to support 'Philippine regional maritime security[.]'" 

Does North Korea's commitment of troops to fight alongside Russia mean North Korea would help China fight Taiwan (and its allies)?  I'd say perhaps, but if Russia and North Korea are aligning to balance China, no.

Mali: "Advancing in Ukraine, Russia Troops Are Losing Ground to Al-Qaeda in Africa[.]" LOL. That "defeat" is a feature and not a bug. "Failure" sends migrants north to destabilize Europe. And Russia earns money while doing that. 

Can the West decisively squeeze Iran's mullah regime now? 

I'm relieved India wasn't behind that: "Pakistan has arrested four members of an Afghan cell over their alleged involvement in a deadly suicide bombing in its capital Islamabad earlier this week[.]" 

China knows if they can bully America into dialing back arms sales to Taiwan, few will defy China.

Russia creates Unmanned Systems Forces service to control all types of drones. Seems like it would be better to have air, naval, and ground services control their own drones to better integrate them. But sure, there's a danger in that of the new weapons getting ignored.

Despite my judgment that small drones are exploiting a counter-measures vacuum that will be filled, Ukraine needs them right now: "Each month nearly 400,000 drones are built in Ukrainian factories or home workshops." And Ukraine needs its own defense industry to avoid import reliance.

Cognitive warfare. Is it just me, or have we just slapped on a marketing label to the age-old practice of propaganda? 

Oh? "U.S. lawmakers are reportedly moving this week to formally establish a senior diplomatic role known as ambassador-at-large for Arctic affairs [.]" I say avoid the squishy stuff and establish POLARCOM. Also, in war the northern shipping route is easily cut at the Bering Strait, eh?

RUMORINT: "Some sources privately claim that Xi has lost real power and been sidelined. Others whisper that Xi’s health has deteriorated; the politician appearing in public, they say, is merely a lookalike, while a group of the party’s most venerable elder statesmen are actually calling the shots." Or Xi rules all.

Hmm: "Russia has launched its most modern Zircon anti-ship missile against targets in Ukraine’s Sumy region, using a weapon originally developed to counter U.S. naval forces." Real world test? Shortage of other weapons? A needed unique capability? Implicit threat to Western navies? Kitchen Sink strategy?

How much of the "division" in Latin America over American muscle flexing is from rulers that don't like us anyway? Doesn't refusal to deal with Maduro abandon allies? And if the price of muffling division is failure to defend our interests, I don't care. Still, speaking softly and wielding a big stick is probably wise.

We didn't really "bail out" Argentina, although we did help them: "The U.S. didn’t give Argentina money. It entered into a currency swap – and the U.S. has actually earned a profit on the transaction." Sounds more like we are betting on their recovery. Which we both could lose. But we want an ally's success.

Does Azerbaijan want all of Armenia more than it wants peace? Excellent question. If so, can Trump's promise of economic benefits from peace reverse that priority?

Colombia intends to buy 17 Gripen fighters from Sweden. 

This video describes American efforts to pressure Russia from the south and east while Russia is self-destructively focused on pounding Ukraine in the west. This might explain my observation on this Russian effort that on the surface embraces China.

Perhaps this is transactional: "Russian plans for roughly 12,000 North Korean workers to join the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (ASEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan by the end of 2025 to work at Russia’s factory producing Shahed-type drones." But could it be more?

The mullahs don't care that Canada is "nice": "Canada's domestic spy agency this year foiled potentially lethal threats by Iran directed against people whom Tehran sees as enemies, the agency's head said in a rare speech on Thursday." 

I'm going to need some new information to believe the French government suppressed information about jihadis torturing victims during the 2015 Bataclan massacre. Isn't slaughtering 130 innocents in the entire series of murder sprees enough to fight jihadis until they are no more?

China has new prototype flying wing drones/loyal wingmen for land and carrier operations. 

Can AI enable and accelerate this ideal? "The armed forces that perform most efficiently follow five steps: acquire combat experience, analyze it, propose recommendations, distribute the recommendations and lessons throughout the force, and, finally, apply what has been learned throughout the forces."

I'm not worried about the Pentagon getting rid of senior officers despite some claims it hurts us--I agree we need it. And part of the problem is the sheer size. As for much of the rest of the author's claims? Not so much. More later.

A reminder that mullahs on a Mission from Allah can't be partly defeated or even mostly defeated. Alive and in power, they are relentless. Ultimately, the ideology must be discredited and marginalized in Islamic society. To support that change, make good jihadis.

Fair weather silver bullet wonder weapon: "Russian forces used weather conditions to exploit vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s drone-based battlefield defenses in the Novopavlivka direction, highlighting Ukraine’s need for traditional weapons systems." FPV drones have not repealed combined arms warfare.

The Day of the Dead Government

Is Mexico rationalizing a slide into drug cartel governments? A decision not to fight the cartels is the first step. The Day of the Dead murder tragically symbolizes the death of government legitimacy in Mexico.

Mexico's government has decided to with the theory that the drug cartels are fiery but mostly peaceful organizations best left alone:

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ruled out a new "war on drugs" as a response to the assassination of a regional mayor who was shot at a Day of the Dead celebration, a brazen killing that has sparked national outrage.

"Returning to the war against el narco is not an option," Sheinbaum told reporters Monday, referring to the bloody anti-crime offensive launched almost two decades ago. "Mexico already did that, and the violence got worse."

The president spoke as the nation was reeling from the killing Saturday of Carlos Manzo, mayor of Uruapan in the west-central state of Michoacán, which has become an organized-crime battleground. She condemned the assassination as "vile" and vowed to track down his killers.

While Mexican mayors and other local officials are frequent cartel targets — scores have been assassinated in recent years as gangs fight for control of city halls, budgets and police forces — the killing of Manzo struck a nerve nationwide.

The nerve struck triggered a fetal position spasm. Mexico has adopted the "Let the Wookie win" theory. 

One day the cartels will decide it is easier to be the Mexican government than bribe or intimidate the government. Hell, the current government might believe it can invite the barbarians inside the walls in the belief that "hugging" the barbarians can control and civilize them.

America will have a major problem globally if that happens. Then it will be time to page General "Blackjack" Pershing. 

UPDATE: Does the government fear and/or value cartels or protesters more?

Several thousand people took to the streets of Mexico City on Saturday to protest crime, corruption and impunity in a demonstration organized by members of Generation Z, but which ended with strong backing from older supporters of opposition parties. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: Photo from the article.

Fortress America or Springboard America?

Securing the Western Hemisphere is not an alternative to a forward defense of America. It is the foundation to a forward defense.

I disagree with the premise of this article that America is deprioritizing far-off regions:

Donald Trump has a knack for raising big strategic questions. The US president is massing military power in the Caribbean; he’s reportedly on the verge of approving a military strategy that deprioritizes far-off regions. In doing so, Trump is reviving a debate with deep roots in history: Where should America draw its forward line of defense?

No doubt America is trying to shift defense burdens to allies in those far-off regions. But protecting the Americas helps create the foundation for projecting power to far-off regions to prevent North America from being our first line of defense.

Golden Dome reflects the need to protect what had once been America's power projection sanctuary. 

And I wonder what our objective is with the sabre rattling in the Caribbean Sea. Yet China could be an even bigger threat if it gets its way.

I've emphasized the longstanding threat from Europe across the Atlantic as some urge America to pull every swinging asset from Europe and send them to INDOPACOM to confront the China threat. 

Given Russia's aggression, Europe is a front even if it is an economy-of-force front. 

But if some want to pull back to Fortress America, remember that a retreat can be mistaken for peace--for a time. Until the enemy pursuit catches up. 

UPDATE: This story highlights the linkage:

Trump’s team is refortifying the Americas—using carrier presence, tariffs on Canada, and tougher rules for Mexico—to build a “continental fortress” that underwrites Indo-Pacific competition with China.  

But don't forget America's European shield for the Atlantic. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

Drone Action Leads to Reaction

I've long felt that First-Person-View (FPV) suicide drones have an outsized impact because they were scaled up in a counter-measures vacuum on a stalemated front that exaggerated their impact. Counter-measures are catching up in the prototypes if not in the armories of Western countries.

Here we go, an AI-assisted active drone counter-measure:

“Mechanized infantry & armor platforms from troop transports to fighting vehicles like this Bradley are vulnerable to cheap, fast, lethal drones acting as aerial IEDs,” Simoni said on X.

“The Allen Control Systems Bullfrog will reverse that, giving back control to US and allied ground forces.”

The system features a 400-pound (181-kilogram) mount that can carry an M240 machine gun chambered in 7.62×51mm, with a rate of fire of about 600 rounds per minute.

The Bullfrog integrates artificial intelligence, computer vision, and proprietary control software to adapt both legacy and modern weapon systems for precision engagement.

That could reduce the amount of passive protection that vehicles must attach to their hulls down to just front and side grill protection, and for the engine vents and rear, no? 

With this and other weapons, counter-measures (active and passive), tactics, and procedures, small drones will become just one more capability in the combined arms kit.

And hey, Bullfrog would fit nicely on my suggested model for a next generation tank, no? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

To the Shores of Venezuela. To the Halls of Maduro?

Is regime change the goal of America's military deployment near Venezuela? I speculated in Substack about a limited mission for American forces facing Maduro in Venezuela. I should expand on that.

Could American Marines deployed in the Caribbean (basically a Marine battalion reinforced with ground and air assets) be used to seize one of Venezuela’s islands in order to allow a rival government to establish a capital on Venezuelan soil? Ideally, Venezuelan rebels rise up on one of the islands, America recognizes the government, and then lands Marines to defend it. With naval and air power behind it.

Not sure what that would achieve. Give momentum to resistance to Maduro? Provide legal avenues in American and/or international law to undermine Maduro? Does it support a bigger covert plan? Would the Marines then be used to secure the American embassy that is still active with local employees?

I'm sure we don't want a full war. A short, limited war is nice work, if you can get it, as the saying goes.  

So I can't help but think this is a distraction for the real strike on Hezbollah, which no doubt has assets in Venezuela. Iran certainly has assets in the region. Settling down the Middle East is vitally important to prevent problems; and Hezbollah has a logistics tail in the Americas that operates even if America squeezes broke Iran's aid to Hezbollah. With America looking for additional basing options, where is the objective?

Or maybe all is as it seems. Perhaps this will be an enhanced Bay of Pigs operation (there are a lot of Venezuelan refugees in America in addition to the gang members Maduro sent here) in which America doesn't unleash the regime change and then abandon the tip of the spear at the last minute. 

Still, the forces that sustain Maduro now might simply shape his replacement in his image. Can we address that problem even if we succeed in Caracas? 

UPDATE: Last night my statistics indicated a hit in the Chinese language from Venezuela on this post about unleashing robots against civilians in a Tienanmen Square-type crisis.

What's up with that? 

UPDATE: Either this is the mission or we are really leaning in to the cover mission:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Thursday evening a new operation dubbed “Southern Spear” to quash “narco-terrorists” in the Western Hemisphere. 

UPDATE: If accurate, this does not indicate landing troops:

Senior military officials on Wednesday presented President Trump with updated options for potential operations in Venezuela, including strikes on land, according to multiple sources familiar with the meetings at the White House.  

What would the strikes on land hit? 

UPDATE: Huh: 

The Department of State intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), effective November 24, 2025. Based in Venezuela, the Cartel de los Soles is headed by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking individuals of the illegitimate Maduro regime who have corrupted Venezuela’s military, intelligence, legislature, and judiciary.

The cartel of the Suns has links to Hezbollah (and Iran) via Colombian ELN insurgents/criminals: 

International intelligence agencies revealed that there is an alliance between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the cartel of the Suns, allegedly led by the Venezuelan dictatorial regime. ... 

The general information revealed the existence of increasing cooperation between the ELN and international networks associated with Hezbollah, especially in money laundering activities and in the export of cocaine to West Africa and the Middle East.

That's the browser translation. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Map from https://besthotelshome.com/map-of-venezuela-venezuela-flag-facts-and-places-to-visit/ 

Time Heals All Post-World War II "Defeats"?

Time heals all wounds. Even our self-inflicted wounds of declaring defeats. 

Did America just win the Vietnam War? 

Over 50 years since America’s withdrawal from the Vietnam War, history has legitimized and vindicated its sacrifice in the Vietnam War.

While few Americans have noticed, Vietnam’s new General Secretary of the Communist Party, To Lam, has replaced Marxist-Leninism as the Party’s governing ideology with something more authentically Vietnamese: Truong Ton Dan Toc, or “Vietnamese nationalism.”

That is a bombshell. Hanoi has just abandoned its Communist ideology, which governed it since 1954 and sustained it in its wars against the United States and its ally South Vietnam, and with its Communist neighbors, Cambodia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Well, look narrowly at the Korean War [link updated]. So I'm open to that line of inquiry regarding the Vietnam War.

But the "wars" America and allies fought in Vietnam and Korea were really hot campaigns in the broader Cold War. We won that Cold War even if specific campaigns aren't reassessed. 

Still, there's a long list of post-World War II American"defeats" that could be reconsidered as time goes on. And heck, if World War II was judged the way we have judged recent wars, there is no way it would be enshrined as the "good war."

So thanks and congratulations to my brothers who served during the Vietnam war (one was sent) who received no parades for their sacrifice when their terms were over. And to all the other veterans who helped in their campaigns to win the bigger wars. 

Fingers crossed about Afghanistan. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Image from Pinterest.

The Winter War of 2022 Appeals to My Hopes

Is Russia reaching a breaking point? I've long hoped this would happen. It is a normal development in a long war. Russia is not immune to it despite their boasts and inability to fully see inside Russia. Behind a facade of confidence we can build up the worst case of our imagination of what lies behind that. 

Is Russia close to faltering despite the image of indifference it projects to casualties and hardship on its path to inevitable victory?

After four years of war in Ukraine, Russian leaders and a growing number of civilians are frustrated, angry, disillusioned and ready to quit. Over a million Russian soldiers have been lost to death, desertion, capture, disability or illegally leaving the country. Economic sanctions crippled the Russian economy and drove an increasing number of Russians into poverty. The government depleted its cash reserves by spending m0re and more money on cash bonuses to obtain soldiers and make ever higher payments to families of soldiers killed in Ukraine.

I've long hoped this natural progression will take place in Russia--or at least in Moscow. But because it is my hope, I am hesitant to cling to it as the way out of the war that is battering Ukraine every day. 

And Strategypage has been more optimistic than even I have been. Indeed, their posts often have lingering language from late 2022 that makes it seem like Ukraine is driving back the Russians right now. Which is incorrect. I may think Russia will break first, but I don't assume it. 

Yet reports that Russian recruiting is faltering from lack of money and willing men and that Russia will resort to involuntary mobilization to feed the meat grinder lend credibility, no?

And one more thing I always keep in mind is that it is easier to imagine the problems on your side while the enemy's internal situation is opaque. This quote from Rudyard Kipling I rant across in Rick Atkinson's An Army at Dawn always resonates as I read about wars:

Man cannot tell but Allah knows

How much the other side is hurt. 

I know Russia is hurt. I don't know how badly Russia is hurt. Honestly, I don't even know if Putin knows how much Russia is hurting. And I don't know if Russia can still cope with that hurt.

But if Putin doesn't know how much Russia is hurt, coping with the hurt will be difficult. And so the effects when the system as a whole can no longer cope will be inflated.

But how much of that is my hope speaking? 

Meanwhile, the war goes on. Russia is finally going to take Pokrovsk. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine is counter-attacking around the nearly pinched out Pokrovsk salient:

Why Ukraine hasn't pulled out its troops to avoid being nabbed in this slow-motion encirclement is beyond my comprehension. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

NOTE: Image from http://filmandfurniture.com/product/2001-space-odyssey-monolith/

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Surviving to Command and Control the Expanded Combined Arms Fight

In case you missed it on Substack: The World Moves Pretty Fast

In case you missed it on Substack: Wet Grains of Sand for a PLA Beachhead on Taiwan

In case you missed it on Substack: What the Iran-Iraq War Teaches About Restoring Mobile Warfare

Fingers crossed: "The primary justification for the B-21 is that it is hopefully more affordable than the B-2 with much superior defensive and offensive electronics." Don't forget the possible fighter variant. 

I have no problem with a mil-to-mil hotline with China. But I reject familiarization mil-to-mil contacts. 

Last week I noted this: "New tests of the U.S. nuclear weapons system ordered up by President Donald Trump will not include nuclear explosions, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday."

KEEP OUT: "U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth maintained Washington’s position on Taiwan and stressed the defense of U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region during a meeting with Chinese Minister of National Defense Adm. Dong Jun on Friday." 

China and not Russia is our common foe: "U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was in Vietnam on Sunday, reaffirming a partnership built on healing the scars of the Vietnam War in a trip that will test whether Washington can reassure a vital but wary partner." Russia supplies weapons to face China. And more?

The UN human rights chief can kiss our butt. The mounting human cost of letting those drug smugglers operate at sea freely is the real issue.

Attacking Venezuela likely requires Congressional consent. But what about this? "'potential targets' that were being looked at included 'ports and airports controlled by the military that are allegedly used to traffic drugs.'" That's a gray area. And could we declare the facilities free of Venezuelan control?

I don't believe a federal judge has this kind of power over the president's commander-in-chief role. I mean, Confederate governors would have said they had everything under control, eh? 

This is business-as-usual for our military: "Dozens of U.S. military personnel arrived in Jamaica today to provide humanitarian and disaster assistance after Hurricane Melissa tore through the country." 

I think the major capability of a cruiser over a destroyer is afloat command-and-control: "The Gettysburg is the second cruiser to take part in the operation, joining the USS Lake Erie."

Russia is using a cruise missile against Ukraine, which Russia developed in violation of the INF treaty, prompting America to withdrew from INF in 2019. 

Huh: "Canada and the Philippines, both staunch critics of China’s increasingly coercive actions in the disputed South China Sea, signed a key defense agreement on Sunday to boost combat drills and expand security alliances to deter aggression, officials said." That helps.

KEEP OUT: "American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enhance alliance defense cooperation." 

We're going to need China's Taiwan reassurances that last longer than Trump's term. 

The new Russian "hedgehog" tank looks like a giant loofah. It protects against FPV drones. But seriously, wouldn't APFSDS rounds punch through that drone protection? And the turret is pointless in such adaptations.

Crisis? "Delays in building new Ford-class CVN nuclear-powered aircraft carrier carriers means that, within a year, the U.S. Navy would have only ten carriers rather than the usual eleven." Or opportunity? 

The Air Force argues it needs more fighter planes. Increase availability rates, pilot training (for numbers and skills), ammunition reserves, and air base defenses to keep what they have flying and fighting.

The America-China trade war is a ceasefire to reload. Both America and China want to reduce trade dependence on the other. I think China's reliance on exports is more of a vulnerability than America's reliance on imports.

From the "Well, Duh" files: Iran on a Mission from God is already preparing for the next war. 

Europe's attitude is lacking and its aptitude is fading: "The China of the Nineties had the attitude, but lacked the aptitude, and sent its best students to Western universities to make up for it. The US has both — aptitude and attitude — and will continue to be a dominant global power for a long time to come." 

Israel has the advantage over numerous jihadis around it. But for peace with jihadis, trust but verify. 

Uh oh: "After years of managing crises that tested our foundations, across the European Union, there’s a renewed sense of purpose: Europe is back, and it means business." The European Parliament has objectives that do not represent the people of Europe. 

Paging "Blackjack" Pershing: "The Trump administration has begun detailed planning for a new mission to send American troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target drug cartels, according to two U.S. officials and two former senior U.S. officials familiar with the effort." I really hope Mexico is onboard. 

A British carrier task force sailed into Tokyo Bay: "During a single port visit, the United Kingdom showed that “Global Britain” is not a slogan but a policy—and that policy looks to the east, intentionally." Russia is the skunk at the global garden party.

I'm going to guess the puppy pack can only hunt close to shore in calm waters: "A flotilla of uncrewed "wolf pack" drone boats has successfully been used to escort warships in a Royal Navy and Army trial." At best it is a test of concept. And a reminder that unmanned systems are remotely manned systems.

More on the Detroit-area Islamist Halloween terrorism plot. Not long after 9/11 I read that American Moslems were mostly willing to turn in terrorists in their midst. I hope that is still true. Any group can have extremists. The key is whether the non-extremists tolerate or quietly celebrate the extremists.

Create a ruckus with ROKUS. 

Russia and China have sold Georgia the rope by which Russia will tie Georgia to Russia. To be fair, the Georgian government wants that. FFS, our efforts were wasted. Tip to OPFOR Jopurnal.

I assume that scores will lead provinces to earn good scores at the expense of capabilities: "Russian provinces will henceforth be assigned a “dronification” score by the country’s Ministry of Industry and Trade in an effort to boost the development of unmanned aerial vehicles across all of Russia." 

Indeed: "Army aviators face an existential crisis. They must find a meaningful role on the sensor-saturated modern battlefield or retire from combat entirely. The threat is not being shot down — it’s being benched." They need indirect fire capability. Which means a simple truck could do their job.  

Russians and Ukrainians adapt fishing nets for route security in the face of FPV drone threats. Back to basics, eh? 

Uh oh: "Belgium's defense minister expressed concern on Monday about a series of unidentified drone flights over the weekend near a military base where U.S. nuclear weapons are stored, saying they seem to be part of a spying operation." Tip to Instapundit.

Can Integrated Deterrence be rebuilt without all the stupidity the original had?  Well, fingers crossed. Because the original was nonsense.

To be fair, anything that Russia does aggressively short of nuclear weapons is deemed the mystical "hybrid war." 

Russia launched another mothership for the Poseidon nuclear tsunami torpedo. LOL. Release the Kraken! I do wonder what the motherships are really for. 

It is true that China's military still has major corruption problems. But that isn't a silver bullet solution to defense needs to stop China. Russia's corrupt military has inflicted a lot of damage in Europe, no?

A European threat to American free speech. Europe's desire for control isn't just a threat to Europeans. Nor is the threat just from Europeans (tip to Instapundit).

Excuse my skepticism, but I don't think international troops in Gaza will be willing to die to compel Hamas to disarm. Everyone will go through the motions and declare victory. 

If America intends to send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine--with ground launchers that must be built--I assume the first time we know Ukraine has them is when something blows up deep inside Russia.

Pentagon: "it will take 'a variety of types of forces, concepts, and posture to effectively deter and, if necessary, defeat a Chinese assault in the First Island Chain' in the Asia-Pacific region." When we get that perfect plan, I always remember China has their own perfect plan, too. 

In case Iran directs a missile and drone barrage that way instead of at Israel: "U.S. and Qatari forces at Al Udeid Air Base opened the Middle East’s first bilateral combined command post for air defense this week[.]"

AUKUS also provides American and British SSNs a base in the Pacific: "A U.S. Navy fast-attack submarine is undergoing maintenance at an Australian base where a multinational force of nuclear-powered boats may be in position in just over a year[.]" 

I really don't get the point of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile. It, unlike ballistic missiles, can be shot down by fighter planes and regular air defense assets. But sure, boast about it, Russia.

Great! Less to defend against Ukrainian deep strikes: "A high-ranking Russian lawmaker claims his government recently sent Venezuela air defense systems and could provide ballistic and cruise missiles in the future.[.]"

Sounds good: "South Korea pitched its submarines to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos for Manila’s ambitious naval modernization progra[.]"

In a war with China our biggest vulnerability would be "the unglamorous network of ships, aircraft, and supply depots that keep them fighting." Not going to argue with that.

Are airborne AWACS too vulnerable to survive over a modern battlefield? Maybe not. But is space really a safer environment for the warning and control assets? 

Defining "pacing threat": "Two months ago, China introduced its new J-35 carrier based stealth fighter and J-35A stealth fighter-bomber."

Latin America: "a confluence of political currents in the region is giving rise to a group of governments, almost unprecedented in number, aligned with and interested in strengthening relations with the United States." Good.

Yeah: "On Iraq, intelligence was equivocal; refusing to apologize, he judged outcomes over headlines, likening the case to Truman and Korea. Iraq ultimately improved, and history will judge it more favorably." The comparison is apt if rough. We did win the Iraq War, though few recognize that.

The SPY-6(V)1 radar system goes to sea. 

Is the M-7 rifle the right choice for the type of fighting American infantry will face? If smart rifle sights are adopted, I think fewer rounds with greater stopping power will be the right choice, as I addressed in this USNI essay.

Problem: "A potential fight in [the Pacific] will hinge on America and its allies’ ability to construct a bilateral battle network. The opening and closing of kill chains are complicated by parallel command structures, where countries retain command and control of their forces." Indeed. 

Putin plans two more years of war. Well, he planned a three-week special military operation. No plan survives contact with the enemy. 

Sh*t got real in the G-I-UK Gap. 

Huh: "The Philippine military will test a new defense plan to be spearheaded by a new command, as officials here game out what it would take to repel invaders without immediate help from allies." Win that first tiny war and perhaps China gets second thoughts. 

From the "Well, Duh" files: "NATO member states are increasing their military presence in the Baltic region and conducting exercises that include scenarios for blockading Russia’s Kaliningrad region, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said in an interview with Izvestia on November 5."

The beatings in Britain will continue until loyal submission improves. I expect better from the British than I do from those on the continent.

I would not sell the Saudis anything but a much less capable version of the F-35.  

The United States is upgrading military living quarters in Kenya. They support operations inside Somalia.

Taiwan wants more drones.

Japan deploys troops to protect civilians from guerilla bear violence. 

I have been puzzled by claims that Trump is isolationist. I think he is trying to reduce American risk in an internationalist policy. I don't think I've written about this explicitly. Now I don't have to. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia and Ukraine work to sustain their war industries. Russia is at a disadvantage in this duel.

Blowback to encouraging China's economic growth: "Without a strong domestic commercial shipbuilding industry, there was a critical shortage of workers to maintain U.S. warships." China was supposed to become a friend before it got strong enough to be a threat. Is that still possible or did we ef up?

Will somebody rescue the crew in the safe room? "Attackers have boarded a ship off the coast of Somalia after firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades at the vessel, according to a UK maritime agency." Maybe a new alliance will prevent the revival of piracy in the Horn of Africa. 

Hmm: "Ethiopia’s Afar region has accused forces from neighbouring Tigray of crossing into its territory, seizing several villages and attacking civilians, in what it called a breach of the 2022 peace deal that ended the war in northern Ethiopia." Uh oh.

From the "Well, Duh" files: There is no evidence Hezbollah is disarming. 

Iran needs a win in Iraq's elections to make up for recent regional losses. Sure, but don't be tempted to think voting is the problem. We need to stay to help Iraqis keep Iran out. And promote rule of law which is the needed aspect of real democracy.

Russia's faltering efforts to restore the empire. It's much worse than that.

Germany's new brigade deployed in Lithuania has Germany's most advanced tank that includes an active protection system. 

Bold move: "The United States is preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase in Damascus to help enable a security pact that Washington is brokering between Syria and Israel[.]" Make sure the UN has nothing to do with it. 

Trump's chance to win over Central Asia? We can't be everywhere. I say make the effort only if it is part of a Russian "flip" to the West that ends Russia's vassal status "partnership without limits" with China. 

I've often mentioned Islamist slaughter of Christians in Nigeria. Trump has deployed hyperbole to pressure Nigeria's government to do something. Hopefully it is more effective than Obama's hashtag campaign.

SADM: "Germany is set to develop and deploy a miniature missile designed to combat drones inexpensively[.]"

Logistics: "[Arc] is intended to deliver critical cargo from space to any point on Earth within an hour[.]" This is--and I'm going to use a technical term--stupid.

The British Army got its first new armored vehicle in 30 years, Ajax recon vehicles. Fewer than 100 variants to carry infantry are ordered.

NATO isn't worried about reductions in American Army strength in Romania. It is a secondary front against Russia--as long as Ukraine stands in the way of the Russians.

People are an asset: "The quantity and qualities of people in East Asia are changing. The populations of China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia are aging and shrinking, while India, the Philippines, Vietnam and Australia continue to grow." But how you grow is key, as our once-open border shows. 

Trump's recent trade deal with Xi has been portrayed as a win for China. I don't think so: "The importance of trade to the Chinese, who now have a declining middle class, is critical. Disrupt economic stability and you have chaos and maybe even another civil war." 

Big, if true: "China has an official population of 1.42 billion and an actual population of 800 million or less." The government lies at all levels. And the official number clearly seems inflated. But by that much?

Singapore introduces drones for coastal defense. And then a bunch about China and America. 

On record: "The Senate on Thursday rejected a bipartisan resolution to block President Donald Trump from conducting strikes against Venezuela as the U.S. continued to surge troops and military assets to the region." Failure to stop is a form of Congressional approval. Not saying war is a good idea.

It wouldn't be a target if it wasn't a good plane: "The F-35 has become a global rallying point for the far Left, sparking protests across Europe and even leading to militants’ destruction of a security firm’s office for its role in manufacturing components of the jet." I wouldn't be shocked if Russia is involved.

Ambiguity about our response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan has always been ambiguous, as Trump is now. We want to deter China from attacking not knowing how big the response would be. And we don't want to encourage Taiwan to be too aggressive believing our support is automatic.

Can Iraq use American ties to keep Iran from undermining Iraqi sovereignty? Iran exploits regional chaos. So regional peace is a weapon against Iran's mullah regime.

It takes a village to raise a jihadi. Thanks teachers! Tear down America enough and even scum bastards--whether jihadis or communists (and yes, socialism is the same economic system) look appealing because they "care" so much.

Are jihadis about to capture Mali's capital? Well, France seems convinced. Mali's government rejected UN and French help, turning to Russian mercenaries for security. But Russia seeks chaos to fuel destabilizing migration into Europe and not to stabilize Mali. Which Mali pays for. Gotta hand it to Putin.

Where the Sainted International Community® averts its gaze (and concern theater) most diligently. 

RUSI report on emerging methods for restoring maneuver in Ukraine. The report mentions "bomber UAVs" that can precisely strike targets at night (to avoid anti-aircraft fire). I assume they hover and drop bombs. Is there a daylight role for dive bombing drones?

NATO has either matched or is about to match Russian artillery ammunition manufacturing capacity. That's good news. Ukraine bought NATO the time to do this.

Is this significant? "North Korea fired a suspected short-range ballistic missile towards the eastern waters on Friday[.]" North Korea has the habit of firing off missiles and rockets getting too old to use, just for the propaganda value. 

Is this a promising sign? "China recently reached out to NASA over a maneuver to prevent a possible collision between satellites, a space sustainability official said, marking a first for space traffic management." Tip to Instapundit. 

Sh*t got real in Poland. 

Foreign countries learned to distrust them as bad actors exploited them: "NGOs have formal legal recognition in many countries, and internationally they, as a group, have some standing. NGOs have become a player in international affairs[.]" America is not immune to their harmful impact.

By being a contiguous--not overseas--empire, it avoided the grief European colonial states got: "Russia has to face the fact that when the Soviet Union broke up half the population enthusiastically went to the 14 new countries and most of those people were quite pleased with the demise of the Soviet Union." 

NATO 155mm shells: "While they are physically compatible, in the sense that they will safely fire with approved shell, propellant, and fuze combinations, they are not truly technically interoperable until a howitzer battery can achieve accurate first-round effects with munitions from another nation or nations."

Yeah: "Russian leaders frequently boast that Russia is different from the West and operates differently. Some of the differences include barbaric treatment of Russian soldiers by their officers, and brutal conduct by Russian soldiers when dealing with enemy prisoners or civilians going about their business." 

The Army trains troops to use FPV drones. 

Trapped Hamas terrorists in Rafah won't surrender: "The enemy must know that the concept of surrender and handing oneself over does not exist in the dictionary of the Al-Qassam Brigades." Fortunately, killing terrorists is in the IDF dictionary.

Residents of Russia's Kaliningrad exclave are feeling the isolation from the rest of Europe. Let them wallow in their special Russian-ness.

I will again note that links to my actual publications sometimes change. I can't possibly catch many of the bad links in posts. If a link in a post is dead, try my publications page links which I do try to keep up to date.

Sh*t got real: "the Norwegian government is currently looking at “several measures” to beef up security on the border with Russia in the Arctic north, such as fencing, increasing the number of border staff or stepping up monitoring." 

Ukraine strikes disrupted power and heat to two Russian cities. Until that happens to Moscow, does it matter? 

And happy 250th birthday to the Marine Corps on Monday.