The MDTF Finds Its True Home

The Army seems to believe the gods of jointness help those who help themselves. 

This makes sense: 

The 56th Artillery Command and 2nd Multi-Domain Task Force, both under U.S. Army Europe and Africa, are being combined, Gen. Christopher Donahue said Wednesday.

Artillery is good. MDTFs seem like Navy-friendly units to leverage funding for long range ground fire if the Air Force is too busy to support the Army in combat. I concede coastal defense artillery has a long history in the Army. But this from the article shows how long-range ground fires can hit the Russians before the Air Force is ready to intervene:

For U.S. and NATO ground forces, the heart of deterrence efforts centers around the Baltics, he said. Donahue said allies face “arguably the best A2-AD bubble in the world” there, referring to Russian anti-access and area denial capabilities in its exclave of Kaliningrad. 

Indeed. Long-range Army fires will be able to hit the air defenses and anti-ship missiles in Kaliningrad to help the other services dogpile on the isolated but dangerous Russians. And yeah, the Baltic region is NATO's main front.

Meanwhile in the Pacific, the Army will establish Multi-Domain Commands under a major general to control Multi-Domain Task Forces in INDOPACOM. Two other commands--in Europe and a reserve--will follow.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photograph from the article.

The Stealth Fleet Gets a Marketing Slogan

A Navy-Marine operating concept seems more like a hedge against Force Design changes rather than something emerging from that radical force change. Here come the [turning down the light and squinting] light carriers!

Marines supported by air power for island hopping in the Pacific:

As the U.S. military prepares for the possibility of a conflict in the Pacific, the Navy and Marine Corps are working on a new way to project airpower, and they’re calling it the Lightning Carrier.

The concept, which the Corps began testing in 2016, turns amphibious assault ships, like the Navy’s America-class USS America, which is both easy to remember and ultra patriotic in a “Team America” kind of way, into small, agile flat-top carriers bristling with F-35B Lightning II aircraft and about 1,800 Marines. With the F-35B vertical take-off and landing capability, they can fit up to 20 on the deck that can support Marines as they secure or defend remote outposts through the Pacific.

I discussed this new light carrier usage for the new America-class amphibious warfare ship in 2014, but cautioned that the ship is not optimized to be an aircraft carrier.

Notwithstanding the initial article, this concept seemingly predates Force Design. I discussed the uses for still-unnamed ship back in 2007. But I concede the "Lightning Carrier" terminology could be new and improved. Or refinements, of course.

Say, is this concept an admission that moving Marines around in Barges With Pretensions is a suicide mission?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Navy photo from the article. 

The Close Air Support Mission Will Die With the A-10

The A-10 has hung on despite longstanding Air Force efforts to rid itself of that troublesome and unwanted close air support plane. It's final days are in sight. 

The Air Force has been trying to kill the A-10 since it first rolled off the production line. The A-10 may be gone by 2027:

The US Air Force (USAF) hopes to dramatically accelerate retirements of its Fairchild Republic A-10 attack fighters, with fiscal year 2026 budget plans calling for the entire fleet to be phased out by 2027. 

Let's hope the plane lingers on in the Bone Yard in case it is needed when the high-tech stuff runs out in a large-scale conventional war.  

The Air Force was eventually going to be right about the value of the aging plane. But the issue was always trust about the mission. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Is Russia an Anchor? What Kind?

Has China changed its view on Russia as its junior Axis of Steal partner? Xi Jinping and his defense minister seemed to play good cop/bad cop with Putin.

This article's title sees the China-Russia partnership as an "anchor of stability". But the text of what China's Defence Minister Dong Jun conveys something very different:

China says the Russia-friendly states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) must be an "anchor of stability" in times of international unrest.

That sounds more like a condition of the partnership that Russia and other members of the SCO must fulfill rather than a description of the relationships. Shut up and obey.

And Putin in that BRICS summit meeting photo above sure looks like he knows his flailing war in Ukraine had called into question Russia's promotion of stability. Xi may have green lit the short and glorious war of conquest Putin promised, but that was almost 40 months ago.

I've long called Russia and China frenemies with benefits. And Xi's comment fully supports my suspicion that China won't let Russia be an anchor that drags it down. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

The Winter War of 2022 Switches From Carrots to Sticks

America's attempt to negotiate with Russia to end their invasion of Ukraine and hostility toward America has foundered on Putin's refusal to talk. In the past I've worried about talking to enemies because their intransigence often resulted in our leaders offering more concessions. But not this time. We offered as good a deal as Russia can get. Now Russia will get more pain.

The American government is unhappy with Russia's escalating bombardment of Ukraine's cities and unwillingness to seek a real end to the war:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed frustration following a June 10 meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about Russia's lack of progress towards ending the war in Ukraine. Rubio stated after the meeting with Lavrov that he conveyed US President Donald Trump's frustration with Russia's insufficient "flexibility" to end the war.

While Russian troops die in large numbers for mere meters, Russia has escalated its war on Ukraine's cities:

Russia's strike tactics, coupled with the increased scale and concentrated targeting of Russia's recent strike packages, aim to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and are resulting in significant damage.

Trump overruled what the Pentagon thought was a routine evaluation of American stockpile needs by suspending some arms shipments to Ukraine. Trump said Ukraine needs air defenses to protect its people, and has followed up:

The United States will supply weapons to Ukraine with NATO footing the bill, President Donald Trump announced on the heels of discussions with the leader of the 32-nation defense bloc.

What additional consequences will flow from Russia's brutality? I'm assuming that will include support for knocking out Russia's drone factories that are fueling the aerial bombardment of Ukraine.

UPDATE (Monday) Trump announces that Europeans will buy Patriot systems and missiles for Ukraine:

The commander in chief plans on meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to discuss Ukraine along with other pressing issues this week.“We basically are going to send them various pieces of very sophisticated military equipment. They are going to pay us 100% for that, and that’s the way we want it,” Trump said. 

Systems that defend cities could also defend bridgeheads across the Dnipro River. Just saying. 

Also, I've long argued Trump would find alternatives to simple "aid" for arming Ukraine. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Crouching Dragon, Hidden Siberian Tiger

In case you missed it on Substack: The Navy Needs Sloops-of-War

In case you missed it on Substack: Has Erdogan Decided To Go Fully Rogue?

In case you missed it on Substack: Building a Marine Expeditionary Battle Force

July 12th was the 23rd anniversary of The Dignified Rant. Here's my 20-year post. And a year of writing on Substack. I don't feel like more anniversary posts after blogging for almost 10% of the time America has been a country. Subscribe on Substack--it's free--to help me celebrate my long tradition of existence!

European officials expressed concern "that Iran may be able to build a weapon in secret unless a nuclear agreement enables the IAEA to resume inspections." I'm concerned there already is a secret location. So the IAEA is irrelevant. And maybe our B-2 strikes, too, for at least the initial Iranian nukes.

The Houthi appear to have severely damaged a commercial ship in the Red Sea, with explosives-packed drone vessels.

Collateral damage: "The military is full of young men who are drawn to risky behaviors, a demographic that experts say has the greatest probability for developing gambling addictions." They will be targets for foreign intelligence agents.

The military is setting up an inter-service task force for developing equipment and tactics to counter drones. No rush. Take your time.

While it may seem unseemly for Trump administration officials and foreign leaders to praise Trump so much, consider that in his first administration officials and foreign leaders actively undermined the president. So the pendulum is naturally swinging past the seemly center in the opposite direction. 

Huh: "The U.S. Coast Guard will receive a nearly $25 billion investment, marking the largest single commitment of funding in Service history." 

Opposing China's subliminal offensives: "A Newsweek map shows the United States conducting Coast Guard missions with allies—the Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Australia and India—in waters near China since May." 

Will Germany have the troops to man them? German is thinking about buying "up to 2,500 GTK Boxer infantry fighting vehicles and as many as 1,000 Leopard 2 main battle tanks." Of course, "up to" and "as many as" do a lot of work. 

Speeding up B-21 production.

Honey! I shrunk the aircraft carrier! "Ukraine is now using bomber drones launched from unmanned surface vessels (USVs aka drone boats) to attack targets in Crimea."

Poland will increase 155mm ammunition production. 

France has stopped pretending to believe Russia isn't behind clandestine cyber and real world attacks. That's the necessary first step.

India will equip its home-grown fighter with Israeli electronics. 

Russia's war on NATO: "[Russia's] GRU recruits a large number of operatives while not revealing that Russian intelligence services are paying for it. Anyone who needs some quick cash, including drug addicts and the mentally unstable, are hired. Russia wants to cause chaos[.]" We pretend it isn't a war.

Mass deportations amidst security concerns. But don't worry, it isn't evil. 

Huh: "We are getting our first full look at China’s wing-in-ground effect (WIG) craft." Add another means to move grains of sand across the Taiwan Strait.

Has the Viking funeral ride under Hamas led Palestinians to express a desire to get off the burning funeral pyre?

South Korea cancelled an order for Apache attack helicopters as it wonders if they can survive over a modern battlefield. Excellent question. Can they survive near enough to the battlefield to provide fire support? But even if they can, could other weapon systems provide the capability more inexpensively?

As I've long noted, Russia remains NATO's best recruiter. Nothing can soothe Russian paranoia.

Chinese and Taiwanese corruption. And a nice summary of Chinese military forces.

Despite politically convenient panic, the most recent NATO summit "injected new energy into transatlantic relations. It reinvigorated the alliance, evincing the complete failure of Russia’s plans to dismantle NATO from within." Ditto on NATO support for Ukraine.

This comparison of Germany's "far right" strategy for "seizing power" (i.e., getting elected) to American domestic politics ignores the original sin of the left falsely accusing the right of being literally Nazis. Both here and--I suspect--in Europe, too. I'm offended as a political science and history major.

A border dispute between a long-time U.S. ally and one of China's few friends: "In February, a brief altercation broke out between Thai [and Cambodian] forces after Cambodian personnel and their family members entered an ancient temple along the border and sang the Cambodian national anthem." 

Aggressive protests against legal immigrants because they change the character of the country and harm local people. But don't worry, it's surely the opposite of racist. Tip to Instapundit.

If Palestinians are rewarded with a state after their murder and rape invasion of Israel, we will encourage more terrorism. Stop trying to make Hamas the Queen of the Victim Prom. Even Arabs are over them. Any future must be innovately limited or highly supervised.

Is Britain headed for economic catastrophe?

I think last week I mentioned a new military containerized rocket launcher. It's the "Palletized Field Artillery Launcher (PFAL) project that is said to currently belong to U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM)." 

Seeking small, cheap American drone dominance. 

The pattern is China is asshole: "German Surveillance Plane Targeted By Chinese Warship’s Laser In Red Sea Points To Disturbing Pattern[.]"

The EU says the Russians are a threat to European states, wrongly saying it's a threat to the EU when actually it's a threat to NATO. The EU is shameless in exploiting a crisis to increase its power.

The world's pro-Hamas leftists/anti-Semites continue to insist Israeli women were dressed slutty and asking for it. Why feminists aren't the most stalwart anti-Islamists is beyond me. But no, keep cosplaying oppression in your Hand Maiden costumes. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia adapts it tactics to its losses as Ukraine uses small suicide drones to keep killing Russians with neither the training nor equipment to survive long on the front. Unless it is just a case that the Russians suck more than the FPV drones suck.

Russia is the Sick Man of Eurasia that China may pounce on if Russia doesn't pull its head out of its Putin. Preaching to the TDR choir, he is. How Russians sleep at night is beyond me. How Putin avoids falling out a Kremlin window is also beyond me.

Small drone defenses continue to be developed. 

Still doesn't seem like a lot: "The U.S. Army’s Fiscal Year 2026 budget request includes the acquisition of 233 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptors, scaling up PAC-3 MSE procurement by a factor of four[.]" Crawl, walk, run, I guess.

In fact, Ukraine is helping America focus on China: "With China dropping any pretense of neutrality in the Russia/Ukraine conflict (note they want it to continue as it keeps us from focusing on them), and Russia not able to close the deal on their own (so to speak), things could get interesting indeed." 

The notion that contingency plans for occupying Greenland would be triggered by anything other than China making good its farcical "near-Arctic state" claim either overtly or insidiously is ridiculous. And tossing in American military threats to Canadian islands is just deranged.

America has an opportunity to reduce Russian influence by inserting itself into the Armenia-Azerbaijan territorial dispute? What, the Israel-Palestinian and Russia-Ukraine disputes aren't enough fun? 

Via Instapundit, AI gets pretty twisted when the large language model is corrupted with hideous language. I imagine any military AI will be targets of similar corruption with bad data. 

An American Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarine visited Iceland for the first time to signal Arctic interests. 

Is there a new plan to finally destroy Hamas and end the war? 

Preaching to the TDR choir: "Offensive drones have had a brief window of domination. But it was only a matter of time before effective counter-drone capabilities emerged." Seriously.

Forget the crisis of the day, consider the grave and gathering global demographic crisis. 

The 25th Infantry Division is practicing territorial defense in the Philippines. Holding that territory would be needed to project Army and Marine units to Taiwan.

Corrupt builders in Kursk installing "dragons teeth" "caused the concrete barriers to crumble and fail if an armored vehicle rammed them. Russian authorities apprehended and prosecuted the contractors." I had hoped the 2023 Surovikin Line would suffer from this.

Hezbollah ordered hundreds of leaders to escape Lebanon and they headed for South America. Not Qatar?America said stop that. Or Iran? That's no sanctuary now. But why South America, you may ask. 

The B-1 is getting new external pylons able to hold hypersonic missiles, partly as a hedge in B-21 delays.

The Houthi are back in the Red Sea interdiction mission.

DARPA research proved a heavy seaplane able to land and take off in rough waters is possible. And now the project is over. 

Urging somebody to herd the cats in the Pacific.

This comparison of the situation in Syria to the Iraq War and aftermath is the dumbest thing I've read so far this year. And really, we can only wish history repeats itself in Syria!

Huzzah? "'While our adversaries have produced millions of cheap drones, before us we were mired in bureaucratic red tape,' he said in the video, which he posted from his official X account. 'Not anymore.'" Well, we'll need them even when past their "best before" date.

Sure, the MOPs might not have reached planned depth before detonating. And sure some enriched uranium could be buried. But hopefully everything that survived is buried beyond the ability to reach and restore or salvage. I've always said striking can only buy time.

Air defense: "The U.S. Air Force has transferred upgraded F-16 Fighting Falcons from Japan to South Korea, reinforcing its fighter capabilities on the Korean Peninsula amid ongoing efforts to deter airborne threats." That enables power projection.

Europeans are still working on a "stabilization force" for post-war Ukraine. I think such a token force can only work if Russia pulls its head out of its Putin. 

The original FPV suicide drones. 

Yes, don't cheapen campaign decorations by recognizing an individual strike as a campaign. If individuals or units deserve citations, there are means to recognize extraordinary effort. 

The Navy is working on layered defenses against Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles with missiles, electronic warfare, and anti-satellite weapons. If you follow the kill chain, there are places to break it. One bright side is that China's missiles are expensive and not swarm systems.

Gulp: "The U.S. Navy is no longer able to maintain or repair its ships." I suppose we could make China share that problem.

Europeans are going to be better able to defend Europe within a revitalized NATO now. The EU royalty-in-waiting hardest hit--not Russia, if it tries rubbing a couple of brain cells together.

Huh: "The Islamic Republic of Iran holds significant animosity toward its northern neighbor, Azerbaijan. ... Khamenei is responsible for the intense animosity directed at Azerbaijan[.]" I had wondered if Azerbaijan would help Israel strike Iran.

Georgia goes authoritarian, making resistance to Russia seem kind of pointless: "The government calls it combating hate speech. The reality is that it is criminalizing dissent, one fine at a time." Hey, we tried. 

They're back: "Houthi militia from Yemen have sunk the merchant ship Eternity C in the Red Sea, the EU military operation in the region said on Wednesday, the second such incident in four days." 

Ukraine's strategic warfare continues and Russia's ground forces get shaky.

Trouble in Mozambique, and jihadis to make it all much worse.

It's a tad early to be unfurling the Mission Unaccomplished banner. Also, 1.5 points of the 5%  of GDP NATO defense spending commitment is for related security spending. And Europe needs to spend more than America to catch up a bit to consistent superior American effort.

Will China risk chaos? "Xi has failed to achieve the 'national rejuvenation' and 'common prosperity' goals he set, and his approach to the U.S. has neither intimidated it into submission nor charmed it into cooperation. Economic problems are widespread ... The rise of an opposing faction is a direct response[.]" 

Your time in the box at the National Training Center is a gift that will hurt you--use it to be better when physics and not referees are determining your casualties. 

While rumors of peace for our time in Gaza swirl around, the necessary work of killing jihadis continues.

Sh*t got real in Europe.  

Israel's armored robotic bulldozer. It is usefulness despite being unarmed. I think so far robots--or remotely controlled vehicles seem very useful for urban warfare (or point security) but are not ready for the big stage. 

North Korea can only dream of being Upper Volta with missiles. If Russia supplies North Korea with nukes, that pretty much signals Russia-North Korea resistance to China's dominance.

I do not understand why I have gotten so many hits from Vietnam over the last four weeks. It's really odd. 

Mission Accomplished On European Rearmament!

It is reputed to be a Chinese curse to get what you wish for. America has finally convinced Europe to arm itself against the revived Russian threat. There's a dark lining to that silver cloud.

America and Russia got Europe to rearm. Russian threats to invade and American threats to watch Russia invade worked.

But ... :

Growing European power means the era of comfortable U.S. leadership is over. Now that it provides more for itself, Europe will feel less pressure to defer to Washington’s interests.

That's the thing, as I've warned about repeatedly. You can't lead real power from behind:

Please tell me our foreign policy isn't to have the Europeans arm up and expect them to fight to defend America. That didn't work out so well in the first half of the 20th century. It was folly when Obama proposed it. And it is folly now. ...

Europe could defend itself. With time. By design it doesn't without America to knit together atomized European capabilities. We should of course want stronger European--but not EU--military power within America-led NATO. We must not indulge in a reboot of "leading from behind" that pretends other countries will fight for American interests without consequences[.]

And with Europeans agreeing to defense spending targets and Trump joining America's NATO allies in reaffirming Article V,  it doesn't look like America will walk away. The risk of Europeans using their new military power for their objectives and not American objectives is still there. But with America in NATO, there is less chance of surprises.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Which is not letting me make new images that I can access. But some old ones can still be mined. Fingers crossed.

Threat Perception Moves Pretty Fast. If You Don't Stop and Look Around Once in a While, You Could Miss It.

Defense reviews are risky business. They freeze a moment in time and justify force planning to match the review. Britain's post-Brexit and post-Cold War global defense strategy ran right into a renewed Russian threat in Europe. A military built for the former is in a tough spot.

The British are getting reminded by a podcast of their vulnerability to a direct Russian attack on Britain:

The Wargame records a real-life simulation played by former members of the British political and security establishment, focused around an attack by Russia on the UK. It is gripping listening and quite alarming, if depressingly familiar to anyone who has worked in British defence.

That post discusses Britain's defense shortcomings posed by the podcast in light of real world events. So this seems about one Russian invasion of Ukraine ago relevant: 

The U.K.’s first Carrier Strike Group will operate for four months in the Indo-Pacific to complete the full operational capability milestone for the Royal Navy’s carrier strike group concept.

But before Russia made Europe the main battlefield again, a Pacific cruise made sense. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Royal Navy photo of HMS Prince of Wales.

Air Base Defense 101

As everyone flips out about deploying new, advanced weapons to defend air bases from small drone attacks, maybe get the basics down first.

Small drones aren't needed to cripple Britain's air force at home:

A security review has been launched across UK military bases after pro-Palestinian activists broke into RAF Brize Norton and sprayed two military planes with red paint.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer condemned the action as "disgraceful", saying it was an "act of vandalism".

How easily vandalism with red paint could have been sabotage with explosives, eh? So maybe first put armed and alert guards on duty. Defending fences and barriers. And of course hardened aircraft shelters will protect planes from paint or explosives.

Then get those fancy small drone counter-measures, by all means.

UPDATE: Members of Congress are skipping right to the fancy stuff. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Image from the article. 

A Car Can't Be All Tail Fins, Chrome and Marketing

If everybody's job is to bombard from a distance, everyone will bombard from a distance.

Infantry with drones: 

What distinguishes drone-enabled infantry is the fusion of sensor and shooter into a single, remotely operated platform. Crucially, the infantry soldier or forward observer no longer needs to be physically near the weapon or the target area, shifting not just engagement geometry but also the risk calculus and tactical flexibility of infantry formations. Drone-enabled infantry has extended the range of contact well beyond visual range. This new sight capability, which can easily extend to 20-kilometer ranges, has decentralized the kill chain and altered the relationship between tactical maneuver forces and fires.

Squads and platoons can now scout and initiate attacks across vast distances. Once reserved for higher headquarters, the ability to see and strike is now organic at the lowest tactical levels.

Sounds impressive. Who closes with and destroys the enemy? 

Because I can see infantry organized for this leading to longer drone bombardments stalling the eventual order to close with and destroy the enemy. 

Because just a little more drone bombardment will improve the odds, eh? That's how World War I "preparatory" artillery barrages got bigger and longer in an effort to help the infantry survive the advance across No-Man's Land.

This Fall 2024 Air Force article was cited by the authors for raising the topic of the "air littoral" regarding small drones. Just to preempt the charge I don't appreciate the capabilities of small drones, I raised this threat and called that air littoral "the brown skies" in a 2018 Army article. Just saying. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Image by Tech. Sgt. Francisco V. Govea II/ Air Force.

I've Got a Really Bad Feeling About Taiwan

Taiwan's reserves system that Taiwan's small active army absolutely must have is a joke. Celebrities buy exemption and don't think they are the only ones. Or that this is the only problem.

People keep claiming the Taiwanese are island Israelis or Ukrainians. Well that's not reassuring when you consider Taiwan's ability to resist a serious Chinese invasion:

Taiwan’s military service regime, which runs alongside its conventional military, faces accusations of failing to prepare conscripts for an actual war – an alarming situation against a drumbeat of threats from its giant neighbor.

On Monday, authorities indicted 28 defendants. Prosecutors allege that, between 2016 and early this year, a four-person ring helped 24 healthy men dodge the draft by faking high blood pressure to gain a medical exemption, netting a total of 7.63 million Taiwanese dollars ($255,000). 

At least 11 celebrities are now under investigation.

I've long worried about the Taiwanese willingness to fight when the going gets tough. Providing Taiwan with this or that weapon or insisting Taiwan adopt a specific approach are secondary to soldiers willing to endure bombardment, lift their heads during lulls, and kill the invaders.

Honestly, just throwing PLA troops across the Taiwan Strait might be enough to panic the Taiwanese into capitulation.

UPDATE: Timely post:

One thing that prevents a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by forces is corruption. In China and Taiwan corruption is pervasive and crippling. This is regularly demonstrated every time China or Taiwan dismiss officers for corruption.

China at least has fear of the CCP to motivate them to fight. That might be enough of an edge.

UPDATE: Taiwan launched a 10-day anti-invasion exercise. I hope it is tough training.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Picture from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Makes Me Wonder About Ukraine's New Corps

As Ukraine holds the line with its drones and artillery, starving the front of infantry, Ukraine also reorganizes some of its forces in new corps formations. What's that for? Outlasting the Russians? Or attacking?

Ukraine has been trading space for time since its failed summer 2023 counteroffensive, inflicting heavy casualties on the Russians. I just don't accept that Ukraine's strategy is to hold on until Russia falters first. At some point, Russia's grinding offensive may take enough to seriously hurt Ukraine:

Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Pokrovsk and may attempt to advance further toward Dobropillya as part of a mutually reinforcing effort to envelop Pokrovsk and bypass Ukraine's fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast from the west in the coming months.

While Russian exhaustion could be how the war ends, I can't believe Ukraine's commanders and their NATO friends aren't trying to figure out how Ukraine could seize the initiative somewhere and launch a counteroffensive that will achieve a decisive victory on one section of the front.

Or at least a significant counter-attack to achieve a significant victory over those offensives such as the Poktrovsk region and drive the Russians back from several months worth of advances.

Ukraine is now building corps formations for their army to coordinate their forces better. The shift is dramatic: 

Currently, the Ukrainian forces comprise 131 maneuver brigades of various types, supported by 15 artillery brigades, four army aviation brigades, [and] 14 antiaircraft brigades or regiments[.]

The brigades are self contained brigade combat teams, really, not reliant on a division for many assets that a divisional organization would provide. Command above the brigade level is changing:

Command and control (C2) above the brigade level is ad hoc in the form of operational tactical groups, operational strategic groups, and operational groups. The 9th and 10th army corps were formed in 2023. Ukraine is currently expanding to 18 corps headquarters to provide command and control for its many brigades, including the 3rd, 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, and 21st Army Corps, plus two in the Air Assault Forces, one in the Marine Corps and two in the National Guard. These appear to function similarly to Russian corps, providing C2 for several brigades, not divisions, as with NATO corps.

Command and control above the corps will presumably remain ad hoc. 

These are like the 2023 counteroffensive corps that were really large divisions by NATO practice. The current plan:

Ukraine had added a new army corps to its ground forces, each of which encompasses four or five mechanized brigades, plus other battalions and units. 

This article said:

A standard corps will be made up of five brigades, with one additional formation containing seven. Ukraine’s Ground Forces will contain 13 corps with two Air Assault corps, one Marine Corps, and two National Guard corps. 

Not just mechanized brigades. Some will be armored and some infantry, plus air assault and marine corps. It seems like the corps mostly have four maneuver brigades, so perhaps that larger count includes some other type of support brigades. Or maybe that's maneuver brigades. I think the 2023 corps included six maneuver brigades, if memory serves me.

Ukraine deployed three corps in their summer 2023 counteroffensive. Those were apparently disbanded when that failed and Ukraine lost the initiative. Which makes me think that despite their value in coordinating defensive battles, the main benefit in the current flowing-lava stalemate situation is on offense. Which could be very important if Ukraine is to seize the initiative anywhere.

As for the place, I keep getting drawn back to the Kherson front:

I continue to view the Kherson front as potentially the most promising location for a successful Ukrainian offensive. Yes, the Dnipro River is a major obstacle. But Russian logistics are not as robust that far west. At least until Russia completes a railroad through occupied Ukrainian territory north of the Sea o Azov.

And like the Ardennes in 1940 and 1944, I don't believe the Dnipro is impassable. It is impassable if adequately defended. Terrain is an obstacle--not a thinking enemy.

As I've written, Ukraine needs to do a lot to overcome that obstacle.

And toss in the seemingly dormant front where the Kakhovka Reservoir used to be (snipped from an ISW map).

This is the satellite image:

After two years of rebuilding its army after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive, could Ukraine be preparing for a river assault at the distant end of Russia's supply lines? With perhaps supporting operations across the now-dry Kakhovka Reservoir that may by now be able to handle the movement and supply of significant forces? 

On that issue, what about all that land emerging and drying out in the former Kakhovka Reservoir after Russia destroyed the dam that formed it? A new forest has emerged rapidly:

The forest’s growth rate is phenomenal. It’s hard to imagine that just a year ago, this place was bare ground, and now, in May, there are trees almost five meters tall.

Is the ground solid enough for vehicles? Could roads be pushed through there to open up a new avenue for Ukraine to launch a counter-offensive? 

The Kherson front remains at the end of lengthy Russian supply lines. And far from the Kursk front and now Sumy front where Russia is stretching the active front.

And consider Ukraine's long efforts to interfere with supplies to Crimea. Then add in Ukraine's F-16s which if concentrated on the Kherson front might provide enough air defense to protect bridges and ferries across the river.

Has Ukraine had enough time to digest and apply the lessons of its Kursk Incursion from last August? 

Hell, the widely discussed suspension of American aid flowing to Ukraine in order to restock American ammunition reserves could be part of a deception operation:

I'll start off with a few things at the top and then I'll get to some of your questions here at the end. But let's start off with Ukraine because I'm sure that a lot of you have a lot of questions about that.

The Department of Defense continues to provide the president with robust options regarding military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end. And at the same time, the department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach towards achieving this objective, while also preserving US military readiness and defense priorities that support the president's America First agenda.

Not so much questions as assumptions. The hiccup in some American military aid is widely interpreted in the media as helping Russia. But Trump has expressed his frustration with Putin's long delaying tactics of real talks: 

US President Donald Trump acknowledged Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine on July 3 as Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate a critical lack of interest in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.

Bringing the war to an end could now be seen as depending on Ukraine defeating Russia. We'll see.

I know I'm connecting dots to make a picture I want to see. But I don't believe that the planning efforts of NATO and Ukraine have settled on hoping the Russians exhaust themselves first and then flee from Ukrainian territory.

Surely Ukraine's new corps will have a role in an offensive that will take place somewhere. Where else could it be? 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Note, too, what the Pentagon spokesman said about future military aid:

Parnell said the department will not provide updates regarding quantities or types of munitions provided to Ukraine, or timelines associated with that materiel[.]

Which helps Ukraine maintain secrecy about what capabilities it is building. So maybe this is a dot in my picture. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Who Declares War?

In case you missed it on Substack: Losing Afghanistan Was a Choice

In case you missed it on Substack: Live Fast, Die Young

In case you missed it on Substack: Difficult is Not Impossible

Iran has embarked on a "season of traitor-killing" following the brief air war. Iran will spot far more "traitors" than it managed to spot Israeli or American aircraft in Iranian air space. Tip to Instapundit. 

The British have initiated contracts for the future SSN-AUKUS attack submarine.

Iran says the US must guarantee no further strikes to being talks. I say talks can't be the core of your now-shattered air defenses. I say productive talks are the way to guarantee no further strikes.

US infantry brigades are to get more loitering suicide drones. 

If China wants to turn the South China Sea into a bastion for a sea-based SSBN nuclear deterrent, they will have problems. If we see a sub there in a sea control campaign, we'll sink it. That factors the pucker, as I noted in this post welcoming a Russian bastion to keep their paranoia within tolerance limits. 

Russian saboteurs were arrested in Germany. Because Russia wages war on the West. 

Ukrainian partisan operations in Russian-occupied Ukraine and Russia itself. The article says America won't provide satellite intelligence about targets inside Russia. Even if true, there are other sources, I'd bet. 

Yes, there is a rift between Russia and China that could be exploited. 

What's missing in "we are failing to pivot to Asia" pieces is they never admit we have other interests under attack; doesn't admit we reduced troops in Europe and the Middle East; and never explain how more assets packed into bases will help in INDOPACOM. Face it, for many it's an endless pivot to nowhere.

Indeed, without American leadership to help allies who carry more of the defense burden, we risk "leading from behind" fiascos where enemies defeat allies or allies look to their own interests at the expense of America's. 

Could America have carried out Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web? Probably. But why would it when it can carry out Operation Midnight Mountain? 

Fooling themselves in Euro Disney: "Europe vested its hopes in what might be termed the 'debutante party' school of diplomacy: that bringing a rogue state into the club of respectable nations and showering it with all the benefits of trade and aid could fundamentally change the nature of the regime." Obama, too. 

The "good cop/bad cop--same cop" model of Trump's diplomacy.

If you wonder how Nazis could be so proud of their murderous hate. Tip to Instapundit. 

Azerbaijan-Russian tensions certainly seem high since Russia shot down an Azerbaijan passenger plane. 

Japan is working on getting America to consider the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Korean peninsula region as one theater. While it makes sense for America and Japan, more locally interested allies may see this as committing them too far afield. Herding the cats out in INDOPACOM is hard.  

America struck Iran because Iran was close to nukes and Israel softened up Iran's air defenses. But the notion that the Ayatollah Khameini was standing in the way of deciding to make nukes is ludicrous. He was just the latest claimed faux moderates containing the fanatics if only we'd work with him.

Can the Army get a relatively cheap ground-launched, hypersonic weapon? 

At least the ship gets a decent interval before decommissioning.

The Army's Pacific commander doesn't think china could successfully invade Taiwan. Given that job one is deterring an invasion, I have doubts about that claim.

An Australian destroyer conducted a FONOP around the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. 

F-35s will finally get external fuel tanks to extend their range. 

Egypt earns from the Suez Canal "$10 billion a year. Egypt and Iran are enemies and reducing Suez Canal income is a win for Iran, which supported the Yemen rebels for more than a decade to make such an interdiction possible." The Houthis still shoot. Will Egypt shoot back? 

But is it good enough? "While many Chinese officers were found to be corrupt and incompetent, there were exceptions, but not enough to command the number of operable ships, heavy weapons, and aircraft available. Corruption in the Chinese military is an ancient tradition[.]" Is China trying to appear far?

Without the ability to project power overseas there is no power projection. 

The military provided an update on the threat to American bases and allies in the western Pacific from the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF).

If temporarily shifting a single Patriot battalion and one carrier strike group from INDOPACOM to CENTCOM to deal with Iran is a major temptation for China to attack, we're not strong enough to win that war. I'm calling BS on this one. 

Interesting: "Israel and Syria are holding 'advanced talks' on a bilateral agreement halting hostilities between the countries, a senior Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Monday." Could Syria's rulers survive jihadi anger for making a deal with Israel? Tip to Instapundit.

"Cognitive warfare" in Russian aggression: "Russia is not weak, but it is weak relative to its goals." 

Either Iran was bluffing it would mine the Strait of Hormuz despite harming itself or Iran was preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz. 

Good: "To better protect its armor from top-down attacks by drones and, to a lesser extent, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), the U.S. Army wants to buy more than 1,500 passive Top Attack Protection (TAP) add-on armor systems for its tracked combat vehicles." The ATGM problem was long known.

I'm in favor of this, because better to be ready than not. But what are the Red Storm Writhing Russians going to do? Bleed on our Atlantic SLOCs? 

Israel used electronic warfare against Iranian drones in the 12-Day War. 

Could soon-to-be-retired A-10s packed with anti-drone 70mm rockets go to Ukraine? Add in a secondary ground attack role, of course.

Japan's tests a naval rail gun.

I'll take "News from the 7th century, Alex." 

Welp, hope that doesn't bite us in the ass. 

If we need them soon and don't have them, that's bad: "The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low." But Ukraine needs them now. Are there alternative supply sources?

Behind Russian boasting about who's "next" after Ukraine, the rot expands: "Russia has accelerating problems with labor shortages and millions of Russians working in the untaxed and unregulated informal economy." 

Poland arms up. But what drone counter-measures will allow all their armored vehicles to fight successfully? 

The tail gunner is long gone, but can small drones protect American aerial tankers? 

Canada underestimated the cost of buying F-35s. But is not buying it really a matter of Canada believing spite will protect it? Is calling Canada the 51st state juvenile? Sure. And it was funny the first couple times. But grow up, Canada. Nukes and drones may break your bones, but words will never hurt you.

Enemies seek advantage using our own legal system to hamstring us. 

BRITAIN: We don't need a written constitution like you Yanks to protect our freedoms. How's that working out for you?

That's a revealing statement: "Macron’s succession problem[.]" Democracies have elections to decide that. Monarchs and autocrats have successions. 

Huh: "[The EU's] guarantees to America’s First Amendment has enough exceptions to the right to free speech as to effectively nullify its existence." Yeah, that Vance fellow was waay out of bounds, eh? It's actually horrifying.

Remembering failed predictions of the Chinese economic juggernaut. I was not persuaded by the panty-flinging.

Iran may be trying to dump Russia for China to get better military support. China doesn't seem interested in playing along. Is China so dominant that Xi thinks Russia and the even weaker parts of the Axis of Steal are unworthy of notice as they try to maneuver for advantage? 

25th Infantry Division artillery is looking at integrating FPV suicide drones. It makes sense since each is essentially a round of ammunition.

True: "'We can’t give weapons to everybody all around the world. We have to look out for America and defending our homeland,' Sean Parnell said in his first standalone briefing Wednesday." But don't make it more likely we'll need to use those weapons to defend the homeland.

Buck Rogers could not be reached for comment: "The Department of the Air Force has suspended plans to use an isolated Pacific island as a test site for landing rockets as it considers alternative sites." Sanity asserts itself! Nip this in the bud before the Stupid Dial is turned to 11.

The Army is relevant for INDOPACOM. Although he downplays the Army's core role, he's preaching to the TDR choir (both in Military Review). History is clear.

The Russians are just casually bastards. 

For years I argued that the charge Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump made no sense. So yeah, they gave their boss what he wanted. Shamefully, there was no peaceful transfer of actual power in 2017. Tip to Instapundit.

Unprepared for war: "The United States has told its NATO allies in Europe that they are on their own. [p] The problem is that China is not the only threat. There are also potential problems with Russia, Iran, North Korea and Islamic terrorists in the Middle East, Africa and Europe." Projecting power is weak.

Big ears in Cuba: "Cuba has become the central asset for the new Chinese signals intelligence/SIGINT site that gathers information on American military operations throughout the southeastern United States."

Fingers crossed: "A U.S.-led resolution of the [Congo-Rwanda] conflict profoundly affects this century's critical geo-strategic rivalry: America vs. Communist China."

Upgrading the F-22. 

Army to test stockpiling hub in Australia. The Army is the service responsible for establishing the land backbone for joint logistics. And that includes some aircraft and vessels for the final deliveries.

Seriously, is it just me who is amused and confused that while we are told the Arctic Sea will soon be ice-free year round that we desperately need icebreakers? 

The U.S. thinks it set back Iran's nuclear program by up to two years. I've long said strikes only buy time and that ultimately the Iranian people have to overthrow the mullahs. 

This comment on America's strike on Iran is nonsense: "Paradoxically, Donald Trump, the most pro-Russian US president in living memory, may have done more than his predecessors to expose Russia’s vulnerability." Trump doesn't insult Putin. Trump would like a peace deal. That is not being pro-Russia.

Big year for Guyana? Can America help Guyana become an energy powerhouse in the Western Hemisphere without destroying itself as so many countries with corrupt governments have?

Happy Fourth of July! I remain extremely proud to be an American. If your pride fluctuates depending on what party is in power, you have pride in your party and not America.

 

We know so little about ancient civilizations in South America. Jungles especially have covered up a lot of what was there before Old World diseases spread on this side of the Atlantic. 

It's not poison gas, but it is banned now: "Russia is increasing its use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, according to findings from the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and two Dutch intelligence agencies." 

Sometimes the determination of a few willing to run to the sound of the guns and lay down their lives can salvage some good in a system-wide military failure. God bless them. 

Huh: "An unidentified North Korean man crossed the heavily fortified land border separating the two Koreas and is in South Korean custody, the South’s military said Friday." 

China's fleet. And South Korea's fleet. Which is real and spectacular.

Huh: "F-22 Raptor stealth fighters appear set to be the first operational airborne controllers for the U.S. Air Force’s future Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones." 

I think that's right: "Post-World War II Germany and Japan show that regime change can work. The problem in Afghanistan and Iraq was less regime change than misguided nation-building and wishful blindness to Iranian and Pakistani interference." I touched on that distinction regarding Afghanistan. 

Should America be preparing for helping Cuba build a new government after communism? We should certainly be thinking about coping with the collapse of the government there.

Small suicide drones aren't the silver bullet: "Today, operating with a mix of low-cost and high-end systems is the new combined arms warfare." Preaching to the TDR choir, he is. 

Pekingology: "Xi’s downfall has been rumored before. But never have we seen the recent purges (and mysterious deaths) of dozens of People’s Liberation Army generals loyal to Xi; all replaced by non-Xi loyalists." And is Kremlinology robust enough?

It took 18 months for Ukraine to plan its daring drone raid on Russian air bases deep inside Russia. 

A review of India and Pakistan in the wake of the Pakistani terror attack in Kashmir and the subsequent India-Pakistan military clashes. Hate + nukes + proximity = sky high pucker factor. 

The Marines don't want Tomahawk cruise missiles now.

Somebody has apparently been reading by stuff for at least the last twenty years, regarding China and Russia. But invasion isn't the only Chinese option. I had to add in one of the author's sources to a Substack post already scheduled for Tuesday.

Gotta say this from the British embassy in WDC was pretty funny. Tip to Instapundit.

The MiG-31 continues its long tradition of existence. 

War: "For over a year Russia has been attacking NATO nations clandestinely with disinformation and sabotage using a combination of specialized diplomats and sleeper agents [who hire criminals for the dirty work] who have long been living in Europe."

France says China is trying to undermine the sales of France's Rafale fighter. Is China trying to prevent India from buying more? Or is France just trying to bolster sales (Feared by China!)?

Sure: "Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the United States would not strike Iran." That fits my view of the original awful deal as Iran's best air defense system.

If Latin Americans don't like America as much because it prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons, I just don't give a damn. They'd have just blamed us for a regional nuclear war if we did nothing. They can get over their butthurt. 

Can the weak and divided Lebanon state end Hezbollah's status as a state-within-a-state after the damage Israel inflicted?