The Winter War of 2022 Gets Diluted

I've repeatedly asked how thin the front lines are given that tiny Russian infantry assaults manage to infiltrate Ukrainian lines and slowly push the Russian invasion forward despite the heavy casualties that drone-led firepower inflicts on the Russian attackers. Is this a bug or a feature of Ukraine's war effort?

The war goes on. Although one ISW analyst said that with Russia leaning into Ukraine across most of the front that Russia has the edge on the battlefield. Not that things can't change quickly--for better or worse. But despite the high price Russia is paying, it has the edge at the moment. And despite a planned meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska at the end of the week, Russia remains committed to defeating Ukraine. America must not give Russia what it can't achieve through brutal aggression.

This is noteworthy (RuAF: Russian armed forces; AFU: armed forces of Ukraine):

At present, the frontline is so thinned out that full-scale encirclements in the traditional sense are unlikely to occur again. Instead, the opposing forces are more likely to "slip" through each other’s positions. For example, regarding the attack in the Siversk direction, a researcher under the nickname Playfra writes that the RuAF simply drove past Ukrainian positions, then got lost and came under fire from the AFU. 

This example shows how extreme it is in one section of the front:

Gady also highlights serious personnel shortages on the Ukrainian side. In some positions, just eight soldiers are defending a 900-meter stretch of the frontline. Even with artillery and drone support, this is critically insufficient—it is no surprise that assault groups and even armored columns can pass through such positions unimpeded. Under normal conditions, a 1-kilometer [0.6 mi] section of the frontline should be held by around 250 troops (roughly 2 km [1.2 mi] per battalion).

It certainly explains why small Russian attacks are working to take land even if the price Russia pays is very high.

But it also suggests that the Russian claims of a juggernaut inside Ukraine able to plow forward despite losses is just a Potemkin Army, as I suggested some time ago:

I have strong doubts that Russia is managing to increase the raw numbers of its troops fighting inside Ukraine to continue its grinding offensive as long as it takes. Does Putin have a Potemkin Invasion Force? Would he even know he only has that?

If Russia had even a single motor rifle division in good shape it could penetrate Ukrainian lines despite the initial losses, overrun the FPV drone operator bunkers, and break into the Ukrainian rear areas to roll of the front or push deep. Air power (big and drones) and artillery could be concentrated to support the offensive. Crappier Russian units could follow in the division's wake.

What we are seeing in Ukraine is weird but expected, as I wrote a few years before the expanded invasion:

As I started out, we are witnessing a natural progression of thinning out the battlefield. Yes, future frontlines will have fewer troops per mile but the gaps in troops will be filled with firepower making it no less a frontline than the past when you had to have continuous lines of troops in trenches. Then there were platoon strongpoints with gaps covered my longer range machine guns and mortars--and eventually accurate and timely indirect artillery.

So I feel confident in saying that a future empty battlefield will still have frontlines.

The front is still there, but in Ukraine it is a broader No-Man's Land that extend behind both side's outpost lines. Lower troop density on the battlefield is a natural reaction to increases in firepower capabilities (including communications and reconnaissance), as Strategypage described:

Two centuries ago, you had nearly 5,000 troops per square kilometer of battlefield. The declined to 3,900 150 years ago, to 404 in World War I, 36 in World War II, 2.34 during the 1991 Gulf war, and today, it's down to less than two per square kilometer. Without sufficient space, modern combat units cannot realistically practice for war. Without that practice, more troops get killed the first time they do it for real, while being shot at.

Density is so low now that Ukraine's infantry is basically a forward observer force when on defense:

Not too long ago, Ukraine’s drones spotted targets for the infantry. Now the relationship is reversed: all along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, the infantry’s job is to spot targets for the drones.

And robotic systems are trying to make up for the shortage of infantry and cope with Russian aerial drones:

Ukraine is equipping their combat brigades with ground-based combat and transport robots in addition to drones. The ground robots come in different versions. Some are used for planting and removing landmines. Other drones advance along the ground while firing remotely controlled machine guns. These systems can fire accurately at moving targets during the day and at night. There are also drones for transporting supplies to the front lines and carrying casualties back to first aid stations and field hospitals.

While I don't doubt the front is thinly manned, I still wonder why Ukraine's front is so thinly manned in so many areas when a little thickening might stop the Russian infiltration. The Sumy front is an exception, it seems. 

It has been a long time since I've read stories about Ukrainian recruiting problems. I thought the problem was addressed well enough. If not, where are the stories? If so, why aren't there more infantry on the front line? 

My explanation is that I keep thinking if I was the god of Ukraine's war I'd be starving the front to build up a strategic reserve of units to throw into the war at the right moment when Russia staggers and culminates.  

And I am compelled to wonder if Russia is doing the same thing. Because, again, that's what I'd do if I was the paranoid, vodka-addled god of Russia's invasion.

Further, as Ukraine trades space for time with their thinly manned meat grinder, it builds a three-deep line of fortifications and obstacles to fall back on once the fortress belt of cities to hold can't hold. But if there is so little infantry, how can Ukraine hold that fortified line for long? Unless there is infantry to hold the line or ample reserves for counter-attacks to throw back penetrations, what use is this defensive line? 

I just can't accept that both sides are for the most part simply flinging whatever they organize into the frontline meat grinder. Yet that's what happened throughout 2022. Ukraine loudly built a reserve after that campaign to use in summer 2023. Ukraine both delayed the attack too much, giving Russia time to build fortifications; yet didn't have enough time to build units capable of advancing in the face of resistance. 

Has Ukraine learned it needs to take that time? And two years later, has Ukraine been able to quietly build that force? I'd like to think so. But maybe I need to accept that I am seeing an inability to launch a major counteroffensive. And nobody waging the war is able to do what I'd do even if they think like I do.

Still, part of me whispers that Trump's meeting with Putin could be intended as the ultimate justification for backing Ukraine if Putin refuses to end the war on anything but terms indistinguishable from a battlefield victory.

But if Putin refuses a deal can America do anything decisive? More sanctions and more weapons with Ukraine on the defensive isn't rapidly decisive--if that can even be decisive.

But a Ukrainian counteroffensive prepared for the last two years and learning from the failures of summer 2023 would be the best punishment for Putin failing to take an opportunity to truly end his invasion of Ukraine. 

I just don't know. We shall see. 

UPDATE (Monday): This seems overly optimistic for Ukraine:

While most Ukrainians are war weary by now, few want to abandon efforts to defend their homeland. Meanwhile the war has become one of attrition and the Russians are losing.

The Russians could break first and lose. But even if they do, Ukraine could lose too. Further, Russia still has the initiative. Unless Ukraine can regain the initiative at least on part of the front, Russia could win despite its losses.

UPDATE (Monday) This article on Ukraine's Kursk offensive a year ago has this interesting observation by the commander of Ukraine's military:

“Victories love silence. They are born in silence and prepared in silence,” Syrsky said.

Indeed. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Russians pushed through non-existent Ukrainian frontlines, walking through unmanned fortifications. ISW minimizes the thrusts:

Russian forces continued to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses east and northeast of Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) using limited sabotage and reconnaissance groups on August 12. Russian forces have yet to be able to deploy reinforcements to hold and exploit this tactical penetration and will likely face obstacles in trying to do so.

This really highlights the low density of Ukrainian lines. I don't know why ISW minimizes the advances. In the past I've seen narrow Russian advances seemingly ripe for counter-attack and destruction. Yet no Ukrainian local counter-attack makes Russia pay for the advance. Will Ukrainian reinforcements drive the Russians back or will a new line be established as Ukraine keeps falling back?

Russia can't keep this up forever given their casualties. But they might be able to keep it up long enough. Because with the initiative, the Russians could again find a weak point. And one day--assuming this Russian success isn't that day--the Russians may be able to exploit it and take land in wholesale lots. 

UPDATE (Friday) ISW:

Russian forces have yet to reinforce and consolidate positions east and northeast of Dobropillya, and Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian reinforcements are stabilizing the situation. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces do not control the territory east and northeast of Dobropillya where Russian forces recently infiltrated.

Assessments that the penetration to the west were mere raiders without support was right. But the penetration 90 north is still there. Will the reserves that quickly cleaned up the western thrust stay to pinch off the northern narrow salient? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I grabbed the image (before it apparently was removed) from The Dupuy Institute from a link now dead. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: War is Hell and Hellishly Long

In case you missed it on Substack: Who is China Keeping Busy?

In case you missed it on Substack: America in Strategic Overwatch 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Marine Corps Should Be the Marine Corps

Data flow is the biggest challenge for Golden Dome. Also, what is its scope? North America or the globe? Tip to Instapundit.

Pentagon signs largest deal thus far for AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.

GAO: "The U.S. defense industrial base and all branches of the U.S. military depend heavily on materials produced by China to make and use critical weapon systems, creating national security risks[.]" 

Standing Maritime Group 1: "NATO has deployed a maritime task group made up of Dutch, Norwegian, Portuguese, and German vessels to boost its maritime presence in the Arctic and High North."

I concluded this early on: "The 2020 House Intelligence Committee report had concluded that Russian strongman Vladimir Putin’s 'principal motivations in these operations were to undermine faith in the US democratic process' and that he didn’t necessarily prioritize propping up one candidate over the other." 

China needs Iranian oil: "Last month Iran received Chinese HQ9B air defense systems. These restored the Iranian losses to recent Israeli airstrikes that wiped out most of their air defenses." 

Hmmm: "Ukrainian robotic vehicles induced several Russian soldiers to surrender without any Ukrainian troops present." In 1991, Iraqi troops tried to surrender to an American UAV. Ukrainian drones should drop "surrender kits" to Russians trying to infiltrate Ukraine's thin front line. 

Is the Left-Islamist alliance in Britain going to collapse? Being "goodlife" only makes the Left a later Islamist target for killing. But I'm skeptical the Left will recoil from their suicidal path.

The Brazilian supreme court has turned into a dictatorial committee to sustain the elites. 

The Army needs the AbramsX? But that vehicle is not a prototype--it's a demonstration model of various technologies that could be used to update the Abrams. 

I remain conflicted about whether crappy looking ships reflect poor capabilities or whether hull rust is separate from readiness to fight.  

Why are Britain and France rewarding Hamas and its jihadi allies for brutality that justifies hunting their members down and killing them no matter how long it takes?

The U.S. pulled out of a small base in Syria where American and local forces destroyed a Wagner mercenary force when it attacked the base in 2018. 

So no air defense system wouldn't have a worse health and housing market effect on Guam? FFS.

Killing hypersonic missiles is fun and easy.

Ukraine is increasingly using drones to destroy incoming attacking drones. All is proceeding according to the prophecy. 

Recruiting: "A disproportionate number of recruits come from the southern and Rocky Mountain states. The northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast are much more difficult to recruit from and the recruits are not as good because of less education, overweight, and bad attitudes." 

Maybe: "The United States has finally caught on to need to stockpile and train troops to use drones. The appearance of drone warfare in Ukraine was one of those infrequent revolutions in how wars are fought using new weapons and tactics." Or perhaps an evolution.

Israel is poised to fully occupy Gaza. Are Gazans exhausted and bloodied enough from serving as Hamas human shields to turn against Hamas when Israeli troops are around? 

I'm not against exploiting drones. But the drone capabilities described to restore movement to the battlefield are not unique to drones. I'd rather focus on providing the capabilities regardless of whether they are drones. Let's not get fixated on a particular weapon round of ammunition at this moment in time.

More Patriots battalions plus some for Guam's defensive suite. 

Hmmm. Has China pushed AI because it counted on it to overcome problems teaching the PLA to fight jointly? 

The U.S. Army tested the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile with a Multi-Domain Task Force in Australia. It is intended to kill Chinese A2/AD assets.

Australia will base its next primary surface warship on Japan's Mogami-class frigate. 

Was China premature in cutting us off? "The US is scrambling to get hold of the rare earth metals needed to make weapons after China slashed its supply to American defence firms."

Huh: "Ukraine said that it stole troves of classified information on Russia's newest nuclear missile submarine during a recent operation, including data that points to the vessel's vulnerabilities." Those SSBNs are vital to Russia.

Iran has plenty of nuclear scientists ... so far. 

I thought Brexit was a huge deal for Britain to escape continental EU autocracy. I've worried the empire might come back. I failed to appreciate just how much Britain's own elites internalized the continental autocratic impulse. How do the British exit from that? And again, Vance was so off base, eh?

Ukraine's new "Mongoose interceptor drone has a jet engine and an automatic homing system, which allows the drone to approach an enemy drone, fire a projectile into a drone’s engine or propeller, and then continue its mission or return for refueling." As the prophecy foretold.

The Army is planning to release its air and missile defense strategy in October. 

Stop panicking. Canceling U.S. participation a long-planned defense forum in Australia has nothing to do with downgrading American-Australian defense ties. Things will be fine. It isn't canceled--it's postponed.

The Army gets closer to having autonomous mobile rocket launchers. Huh. 

I've noted this before, but dummy assets are another practice to reduce the effectiveness of persistent battlefield surveillance. 

I respect the admiral's writing. But he really needs to get a grip. I seriously doubt any subs changed planned movements. And maybe Putin learned that waving his nukes around isn't cost free.

I sure experienced shark attack and bay tossing. And some other efforts intended to induce stress on me personally! 

A man hides behind his military record to spread Hamas propaganda. Yes, every bit of suffering in Gaza is the fault of Hamas, which hides behind human shields. Aguilar is just "goodlife", really.

The private security industry for Brazil's top 1%. "The Brazilian armed forces are, by Latin American standards, well trained and equipped." Spending just 1.1% of GDP on defense makes sense for the giant of South America with no real military threat to it. And corruption would lose a lot of it anyway.

Who actually hates Gazans? "Peace talks between Israel and Islamic terrorist group Hamas continue to not happen. Hamas has been interfering with Israeli and foreign efforts to deliver food in Gaza, plus the UN claims the sole right to distribute it but won’t actually do that. So the food just sits there in piles." 

Eighty years ago, using nukes on Japan saved a lot of lives--Americans, Japanese, and others who would have died with a war dragging on with fighting and blockades. But then America had a monopoly--and no more ready to go--so escalation to general nuclear war was not a threat. Today the threat is real.

Sounds like an aerial helicopter insertion followed by a Thunder Run back to friendly lines on foot: "Ukrainian special forces on Tuesday claimed to have killed more than 330 Russian troops in a dawn raid behind enemy lines."

Communist Cuba is poor. But don't imagine that the elites don't have the money. 

The Army restarted long-dormant Stinger production as it works on a new shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile. 

Ethiopia refused to lease civilian passenger planes to Russia. 

Will the U.S. halve its planned F-35 fighter buy to pursue the F-47 6th generation fighter? It seems like the F-35 is a good plane that pilots like. Are we judging the existing F-35 against the idealized future F-47 wonder plane? I'm skeptical.

Egypt didn't let Gazan refugees into Egypt through their border; let Hamas smuggle across that border; and didn't even want Gaza back when it had the chance. So they can shove their criticisms of the West over Gaza. 

North Korea lost 4,000 KIA of their initial 12,000 contingent sent to fight for Russia. North Korea will send 30,000 more, including support troops. Their troops are expected to fight inside Ukraine. Russia is paying with nuclear weapons technology.

How the U.S.-India trade deal unexpectedly collapsed. For now, I assume.

An overdue refusal to fling panties at drones. They aren't a silver bullet. But they can be part of a complete breakfast. 

CSIS on Midnight Hammer: "We determined that the U.S. and Israeli strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear program by destroying key infrastructure and human capital." 

Oh? "'As two tigers are fighting ferociously in the valley, a sage monkey is sitting on top of the mountain, looking down and waiting to see how it will end.' Beijing sees itself as the wise monkey, waiting patiently as Moscow and Washington erode their respective combat arsenals." Not quite. China's happy with Putin?

Forty years of the military embracing joint warfare hasn't worked. Egad. Yet we've trained flag and general officers in jointness to the point of not being proficient in their home service? While top leadership must integrate services, synergy comes from each service winning their domain in a joint effort.

An articulated Hellfire warhead. Interesting evolution of precision. Although I suppose top-attack ATGM warheads were the first stab at that. 

Hmmm: "The US Army is working on a new space policy to serve as the “umbrella” for a new Army space strategy and doctrine, as well as the foundation for future requirements and acquisitions[.]" 

What's the true size of Russia's nuclear force? Hell, what's the true state of that force? 

Can Lebanon disarm Hezbollah and end its state-within-a-state status? 

Honored to be part of the Hamas propaganda war. Tip to Instapundit.

National defense: "Canadian defense officials have strongly made the case that Ottawa should stick to a plan to buy 88 Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jets rather than splitting the order[.]" 

The Russians are learning to use their drones: "Russian UAV adaptations are likely achieving some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI): The use of airpower to strike targets in the near rear of the frontline to impact battlefield operations in the near term." It's an anti-access/area denial system behind enemy lines.

B-21s will need sustained sorties in a future Pacific war unlike current bombers and their one-off strikes.

China increased its navy and coast guard activities while India exercised with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

The British collaborator. You thought I was joking that Starmer bends the knee to the Cheese Throne?

WTAF?! "A string of previously undisclosed break-ins at Tennessee National Guard armories last fall marks the latest in a growing series of security breaches at military facilities across the United States, raising fresh concerns about the vulnerability of US armories to theft and intrusion."

Violence continues in Mali with Russia replacing France as the major foreign force. 

We still fund that murder??!! "Earlier this year the United States threatened to halt $336 million is aid to the Palestinian Authority/PA if the Palestinians did not halt their Pay for Slay program." 

Big, if true. It's basically ratifying Azerbaijan's battlefield victory and hoping Armenia can hold what it still has. Tip to Instapundit.

No! Way! I continue to hold the unfashionable opinion that dead jihadis have a zero recidivism rate. Tip to Instapundit.

India has "paused" arms purchases from America after America imposed high tariffs on Indian exports because India purchases Russian oil, helping Russia fund its invasion of Ukraine. Other security ties remain unaffected.

The China-backed government of Myanmar is losing the civil war. Nothing much seems to change, really: "Myanmar has been mired in chaos for centuries and is considered a failed state." 

The European Union is no super power. Well, sure. But the proto-imperial EU will be satisfied to eliminate the annoying prefix and rule Europe. All it needs is authority. Anything beyond that horizon is bonus territory. Does Trump loathe the EU? Everyone should.

Oh? "China is believed to have developed a plan to eliminate or greatly reduce Western interests in the Middle East and allow China to step in as the new foreign influence." A plan? LOL. Have fun storming the castle!

Hamas goes to Plan B: "Having unleashed a genocidal terrorist attack on Israel two years ago, and still holding Israeli hostages, Hamas is now doing the same to Gaza." Hamas is responsible for Gazan deaths and suffering.

If true, don't save them to "achieve" a deal: "Iran’s government is in big trouble." 

Small drones are useful in land warfare. But don't fling panties at them. 

Via Instapundit, Japan is embracing peace through military strength. Discussing even nukes is no longer forbidden. Bravo, China.

The M1E3 tank will be "under 60 tons so the tank can use more bridges. E3 has a modular design making it easier to replace broken components or install upgraded or new components. E3 has an improved fire control system, upgraded sensors and upgraded protection." South Korea is going to a 130mm gun.

Israel appears determined to actually destroy Hamas notwithstanding the widespread disinformation on behalf of Hamas to demonize Israel and ignore Hamas crimes that too many in the world embrace.

North Korea is dismantling propaganda speakers at the DMZ following South Korea's dismantling of its speakers. 

China Learns in Order to Win and Not to Be Nice

People keep telling me that China will learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine the futility of aggressive war. Not so fast. 

Russia has hard-won experience to sell China: 

Russia has established a program to instruct 600 Chinese military personnel. The lessons would include details on how the Ukraine War was and is fought and lessons learned by the Russians so far.  

I am sure the instruction never includes "don't risk taking territory rightfully yours!" 

I'm reasonably sure that the Chinese believe that with details on the battlefield of today, they'd do much better than those hairy barbarian steppe monkeys screwing the pooch in Ukraine. 

And really, when it comes to Taiwan, China only has to do about as well as Russia has--just have the brains to stop before diminishing returns from fighting become apparent.

We have a persistent bad habit of thinking we can teach the Chinese communists to play nice with others. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

It's Deja Soviet Union All Over Again

The Soviet Union with its vaster empire spent itself into disintegration with its high military budget. Putin says, "Hold my beer" as he plans to continue accelerating his unbalanced and staggering economy into the future.

 

That's a bold move, Cotton. Let's see if if pays off:

Russia's war machine has become such an integral part of its economic engine that its military industry is likely to keep expanding even after the fighting in Ukraine ends, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

High military spending crippled the Soviet Union. Even if Russia is less effed up with paranoid nationalists rather than paranoid communists, repeating the Soviet military spending spree is no way to make Russia great again. And making plans to take on NATO on the assumption that Russia will finally overwhelm Ukraine is turning the Delusion Dial to 11, no?

But on the bright side, Putin might get that red sports car blue water fleet he's been eying! 

The irony of Putin basing his rule on restoring Russia's past imperial glory only to risk a third fragmentation of Russia's empire after the Soviet empire lost Eastern Europe in 1989 and the Soviet Union in 1991 is thick and delicious.

China may pick up some lost territory in the collapse.

Putin--or his successor--might be shocked do find his much-brandished nukes don't work should China pounce. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Tariff Treaty of Brest-Litovsk?

Europeans don't seem to like the tariff deal the European Union (EU) signed with the United States. European country leaders are so adorable thinking the EU negotiates to benefit its European provinces!

The European Union and America agreed to new trade tariffs. There is discontent within the ever closer union:

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the agreement would "substantially damage" his nation's finances, while French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said it was tantamount to "submission".

The reaction has been downbeat across the bloc - though several capitals acknowledged signing an uneven deal was worth it in order to avert an all-out trade war.

I have no idea if this deal is bad for Europeans, but so far the assessment is that it isn't good. If it is bad, what have I been saying for years about the proto-imperial European Union and its quest to remove the prefix?

Remember, the EU doesn't care about solving any particular problem. The EU just wants the authority to address the problem, as I noted before Russia invaded Ukraine (again). Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Empire[.]

I mean, Von der Leyen looks practically giddy over striking the deal! For her, it doesn't matter what the deal's terms are as long as the EU's authority to negotiate those terms is accepted by foreign leaders and the EU's future provinces. How can anybody argue Trump killed the EU dream? Just signing a deal--any deal--is Trump's gift to the EU.

And so the prefix is loosened just a little bit more.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: The photo is from the article.

A Nuclear Hanging Tomorrow Focuses the Mind

I wrote that Israel would figure out how to attack Iran given the high nuclear stakes despite its lack of aerial refueling. Israel thought outside the box and solved their problem.

This observation, at least, is spot on:

[Israel's air force is made up of] earnest professionals who accept the limitations of their equipment and strive to overcome them — for example with unique air-launched ballistic missiles used as range extenders. 

It has long been said that Israel would need a hundred sorties to make a strike worthwhile. Lack of aerial refueling was said to be a handicap that Israel could not overcome.

I thought Israel could work around that. If aerial refueling was so critical, I argued, Israel would have prioritized that. Instead, Israel worked around that limit.

Yes, America stepped in to smash up Fordow and another target with MOPs unique to America's arsenal (and another with mere cruise missiles). I suspect that was done for the purpose of ending the campaign for American interest in forestalling Israel attempting to carry out their plan. 

I don't believe Israel started the campaign with no idea how the final Fordow piece could be dealt with. Perhaps one day we'll learn about that. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Testing the Deterrence Value of Nuclear Gobbledygook

There is no extreme threat to Britain that would not prompt a response on the beaches, the landing grounds, in the fields and in the streets, and in the hills; we shall never not respond.

The EU essentially seeks nukes but isn't about to be clear about it:

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain and President Emmanuel Macron of France will announce on Thursday the details of a new defense relationship that will include a first-ever pledge to have their nuclear arsenals work together in the event of serious danger to allies in Europe. ...

The agreement between the two countries will affirm that “there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by both nations,” according to a statement published late on Wednesday by the British Ministry of Defense.

The announcement expected on Thursday is not a full guarantee of nuclear protection for European nations, but experts said it is a small step in that direction.

Stirring words should the Europeans ever go toe-to-toe with the Russkies.

Pledging Britain's people to safeguard the continent when its role in NATO should do that seems like a way of retreating from Brexit a little bit more. France's desire to stiff-arm NATO is no shock.

Further, Moscow will need to use their best translators to figure out whether that the double negative that backs into a sort-of-nuclear guarantee is a deterrent.

And we'll see if Britain and France--on behalf of all Europeans--can convincingly pledge to trade London or Paris for Odessa or Budapest any more easily that America in the Cold War pledged New York for Bonn.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

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The Winter War of 2022 Defeats Russia

In many ways, Russia already lost the Winter War of 2022. This isn't to say that Ukraine couldn't also lose, possibly even worse than Russia loses. But even a Russian battlefield victory isn't enough to obscure, let alone reverse, Russia's decline.

The war goes on. Russia intensified bombing Ukrainian civilians while slowly plowing forward at a low rate. Ukraine hits Russia's railroads seemingly part of an effort to isolate Crimea and the Kherson front. And unless I'm seeing what I want, it seems like Ukraine is carrying out some punishing local counter-attacks. Something I've long looked for but haven't seen. Yet Ukraine's casualties are accumulating even if well short of Russian levels of loss.

I think this is right:

In analyzing the process by which the Russia-Ukraine war will end, the most critical factor, as I have argued before, is that by not defeating Ukraine, Russia already has lost the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s primary interest was in creating and controlling a buffer between Russia and Poland on the eastern edge of NATO. Beyond that, he wanted to recover Russia’s status as a great power, which it had held from the end of World War II to the collapse of the Soviet Union. ...

For Russia, the loss of military significance was accompanied by an inability to become a major economic power. Under the czars and the communists, Russia had always been an economic weakling. Although it had vast and valuable lands, as well as a reasonably educated population, Russia has continued to be what can most kindly be called an underperforming economy.

Invading Ukraine didn't solve the problem of Russia's military and economic weakness. It enhanced the weakness and Putin lost his chance for a partial victory through American-sponsored diplomacy:

Putin gambled on the chance he could break Ukraine in one last, ruthless effort. Instead, the U.S. has pulled close to NATO and is sending weapons to Ukraine in concert with Germany, which has also deployed tanks closer to Russia’s border. The mystery is whether Putin can politically survive his ongoing miscalculations. 

The problems from going to a war economy and bribing recruits into the virtual death sentence extend back home:

The result has been a dual-economy: while military expenditures create a wartime boom, the civilian economy has been battered[.] 

Strategersky.

Putin has lost far too much to settle for anything less that victory on the terms he first set. But a successor unencumbered by the heavy losses Russia has endured on Putin's orders could make that deal to "save" Russia by the simple expedient of refusing to keep digging in the "special military operation" hole they find themselves in.

Is Putin creating that successor? Hell, the justification writes itself. 

I wasn't kidding when I said that the "post-Cold War" period between the Cold War and the new Era of Great Power Competition should be known as the Russian Decline Era.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

UPDATE (Friday): Is Russia considering a Dnipro River crossing operation at Kherson? 

UPDATE (Saturday): Where will North Korea's second expeditionary force of 30,000 be sent to fight? A river crossing operation seems like a good target for completely expendable troops to carve a bridgehead for Russians to follow, no? An offensive at Kherson would also compel Ukraine to reinforce the front that no doubt is considered a relatively quiet sector requiring fewer troops because of the river.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: When You Start to Defend Your Islands, Defend Your Islands!

In case you missed it on Substack: Before Drones There Was the 60mm Mortar

In case you missed it on Substack: Fit to Float is Not Fight to Fight

In case you missed it on Substack: One Year Evolving on Substack

In case you missed it on Substack: America's Trilogy of Dominance?

Yes, Iran still wants nukes no matter what damage the 12-Day War inflicted. I still think Iran could buy them from North Korea. 

Sh*t got real or an abundance of caution?

Putin's costly war to take a country that wants nothing to do with Moscow is costing Russia influence in ex-Soviet countries. And it could get much worse. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

Sounds like Army Delta Force got busy mowing jihadi grass in northwest Syria. 

British to Americans: Freedom is too ingrained in our society to need a written Bill of Rights! Wait. What? Tip to Instapundit.

CRS report to Congress on the SSN(X) program. 

The Marines are using their V-22 Ospreys to hunt submarines. To be fair, the Marines don't need their transport aircraft to fight ground operations or conduct forcible entry operations in a Force Design Corps.

Buh bye M10 Booker. Not saying I killed it, but I posted this essay about that FBOH the day before the announcement. Coincidence? Okay, sure. Probably.

Russian corruption is worse than Ukrainian corruption: "Russian authorities are increasingly pursuing corruption cases against regional and military officials, legal maneuverings that are putting the elite on guard and in some cases may be aimed at quelling public anger about battlefield failures." 

I think this is overly optimistic. If China keeps taking territory and entrenching its de facto control, who cares if targets are defiant? 

Hope amidst the ruins of American warship building? 

China is shifting to blue water navy training. Does this mean China is confident it can win near its shores and wants to exploit a wartime victory off the coast? It could mean China has decided peacetime power projection is needed without challenging its neighbors and the United States. Just saying.

After five days of fighting, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire. 

The three biggest lies China will try to sell to America to reduce tensions over Taiwan.  

So what's the Lockheed Martin "'magical' classified aeronautics program that is something that would be in high demand for many years in the future" that excuses its poor earnings report? 

LOL. And Britain is surrounded by ocean, which should make it really easy by comparison to the US. Tip to Instapundit.

Apparently the Australian government assumes the descendants of criminal settlers can be assumed to be criminals. We really need to try harder to justify the "Free World" description. Tip to Instapundit.

So why isn't Israel suffering another Intifada and more terror attacks over Gaza? The lack of response is much broader than inside Israel. The Palestinian appeal has become ... more selective. And for Iran, the appeal is someone else dying for them in battle. As for Israel creating a "forever war"? Hamas did that.

Hmmm: "[Ideological/religious] groups can kill; drug cartels can kill, but they can also lavishly reward. Ideology is a powerful force, but nothing near the power of greed and fear, which creates a compelling defensive system." I thought a profit motive made drug cartel leaders less suicidally stubborn. I'm wrong?

One of the four American SSGNs visited Brisbane Australia.

LeadOps are the best ops: "The U.S. military has launched its most intensive Somalia bombing campaign on record, carrying out more than 50 airstrikes in the country since the start of the year, U.S. Africa Command strike data show." 

Russia is faceplanting in Ukraine, wrecking its army and economy; while Ukraine is planning for the post-war. But I can't help but fear Ukraine is taking its eye off the ball. Russia has to be defeated first to get that post-war recovery. 

The rise of drones in the Winter War of 2022. They are important. But I'm still not sure how fleeting lessons of this particular war can be divined to help American forces. Lessons of 2023, 2024, and this year would be different. If we commit to particular lessons we could be as ill-prepared as if we learned nothing.

As we contemplate submarines for battling the Chinese navy, don't forget the capable conventionally powered attack subs that the Japanese and South Koreans have. 

Sh*t got real: "Israel ordered its troops to permanently seize parts of the Gaza Strip — to be 'annexed to Israel' — unless Hamas hands over the remaining hostages[.]" Consequences. What are they?

Down on Marine Force Design: "The stunning failure of Force Design is the lack of warfighting and logistics capabilities to operationalize the concept." I've had concerns with fighting and logistics. 

Aim high: "The Defense Department’s secretive X-37B  Orbital Test Vehicle will lift off again in late August, carrying a quantum sensor that could enable navigation when GPS is unavailable as well as a laser communication system[.]" Space Force got custody of that motto, right?

From the Army, How Russia Fights. I'm looking forward to reading the report. 

Interesting: "Turkey has secured a landmark defense export agreement with Indonesia, signing contracts for 48 KAAN fighter aircraft and two İstif-class frigates[.]" 

A Gazan child afflicted with a wasting illness is being used as fake evidence of starvation in Gaza. The brother and mother are clearly not starving. Hamas could end any hunger by surrendering instead of blocking humanitarian aid. Why does Israel have the duty to care more about Gazans than Hamas does?

I cannot imagine the Russians selling any islands to the United States right now. But let's revisit the issue when the Chinese grab Russia more firmly by the balls and are really squeezing.

Short CRS report on Taiwan defense and military issues. 

Well, this development does justify setting up POLARCOM. 

A Pentagon decision "extends tours for unaccompanied service members assigned to South Korea from 12 months to 24 months." 

The Battle for Palau rages. 

The British government is trying to impress American tech companies into British service to control the British people. I thought the War of 1812 established our sovereignty. Tip to Instapundit. 

Will AI result in a quantum leap in military wargames? Simulating enemy decision-making always risks mirror imaging by your guys. But will LLM-based AI just LLM-image? Or can we build subset LLMs based on each country's digital footprint plus intelligence that feed the in-house AI?

Selfridge: "More than 7,500 armed forces members will attend Northern Strike (NS) 25-2, one of the Department of Defense’s largest reserve component readiness exercises. It’s happening across [Michigan] from Aug. 2 to Aug. 16." 

The Army is testing a turret-top mini-gun in place of the .50 caliber machine gun on the Abrams for counter-ambush. Without a remote weapon station? Egad. Add that and automate it like Phalanx for anti-drone work, and then we're good to go.

The Houthi are tanned, rested, and ready to shoot at ships in the Red Sea again. When does Egypt take action? 

Starmer to Chamberlain: "Hold my warm beer." Worse than shameful, it's psychotic. The British invented "shoot on sight, shoot first, shoot to kill, keep shooting" to deal with Islamist jihadis.

Russia has been shrinking for decades: "Russia is running out of Russians. The Ukraine War hasn’t helped, with losses of over a million dead, badly wounded and deserters. Millions more fled the country to avoid getting mobilized into the military to die in Ukraine." 

Westerners wrongly (and conveniently) say China will learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine that conquest is futile. This is wrong: "holding the island against a mobilized population would be a recipe for a quagmire." I doubt Taiwanese would resist. And if I was China, I'd mass deport Taiwanese to Xinjiang.

Danger, Will Robinsky! "The Chinese military announced Wednesday that it would hold an annual naval exercise and conduct a maritime joint patrol with Russian forces next month." Putin should never let the Chinese see Russia's military up close. Especially not at Fúlādíwòsītuōkè Vladivostok!

Did China violate the Biological Warfare Convention by smuggling that crop fungus into Michigan (and toother states)? Two weeks ago I asked if it was an act of war. But if we ignore killing millions of our people, mere crops are just about a good deed, eh?

Israel should follow a simple strategy for dealing with Hamas: "If you kill enough of them, they stop fighting." Sadly, Hamas has the same strategy. But "them" refers to Gazans and "they" refers to Israelis. 

So, what did that big earthquake off Kamchatka and the subsequent waves rolling into their main sub base do to Russia's strategic nuclear submarines? 

If corruption and socialist instincts aren't crushed to unleash free markets, India won't make the leap: "India is not a classic great power, but neither is it merely a regional actor." And it might regress to the latter. Not wanting to align with America to retain options with India-hating Pakistan and China is nuts.

The China-Russia-Iran axis isn't dead because it is perfectly natural for such autocratic states to have loose alliances. So it both is and isn't an alliance as the West views alliances? Okaay. 

As the U.S. contemplates reducing troops in Europe (and to be fair, the current level is a post-Winter War of 2022 surge), Poland is confident its contingent is secure. I imagine that's true. 

To be fair, America only has to worry about pro-Hamas people taking over our campuses. Europeans worry about losing their cities: "US allies break with Trump to force diplomatic shift on Gaza[.]"

Good: "Germany's armed forces reported a 28% surge in soldier recruits from January to late July, compared with the same period last year[.]" I was worried recruits wouldn't match promises of funding increases.

This post on Ukrainian drone usage mentions retransmitting drones. Which seems like a form of aerial refueling in that it extends drone range. Exit question: Will Ukraine target Russia's rail transformers that power that crucial transportation network?

Air force effect and BDA. Also, I'm not saying small drones aren't useful for recon and as ammunition. But counter-measures will be developed. And the example provided of high American air losses over North Vietnam needing new weapons and tactics supports my view. Don't look for silver bullets.

Is no lie in the service of murderous, evil bastards too great for some to embrace and spread? Apparently not, although "the truth is that there are real concerns about possible near-term hunger and malnutrition in Gaza because Hamas steals aid, hoards food and medicine away from civilians, and punishes dissent."

When Russia is preoccupied getting punched in the face, it has little time to help anyone who thinks it is Russia's ally. Russia was a rising star until it revealed the dead-cat bounce behind the curtain. Oopsky.

The Sin Red Line. Tip to Instapundit.

Make it so: "Australia and the U.K. on Saturday signed a 50-year bilateral treaty furthering the two countries’ sharing of nuclear propulsion technology under the AUKUS agreement."

Maybe it would have been better to devote four decades of research to desalinization technology instead of building nukes: "Iranian president says country is on brink of dire water crisis[.]" I guarantee America and Israel wouldn't have bombed that research.

First line of defense: "India’s latest operational deployment to the South China Sea will feature its first joint patrol with the Philippines in the contested waters." India eases from Act East into Fight East. 

The Army is condemned for clinging to the past and not innovating. But when it quickly sheds helicopters in favor of new systems and weapons, it is condemned for the "pace and planning" of eliminating units--called "gutting". 

Their presence discouraged more rioting: "The Pentagon said Thursday it is ending the deployment of all but 250 National Guard troops that were originally sent to Los Angeles[.]" 

You'd think after Ukraine's dreadful experience trying to penetrate Russia's Surovikin Line in 2023 that Ukraine would have more of a sense of urgency about building fortifications. 

Putin's madrassas: get them young to send them to die young. And actual madrassas, too.

A back door effort to demote super carriers in a couple decades? "The decision to build the U.S. Air Force’s F-47 sixth-generation stealth fighter means cancelling the Navy’s F/A-XX combat." I've expected that demotion for a long time. But the F-35C is only just now entering the fleet. 

We have more MOPs, right? "Iran is conducting a covert operation to “kill and kidnap” people in the UK and US, the State Department has warned." 

If this enables Army units to quickly make and enact decisions on the battlefield, good! 

The German Question. It's a big shift in European thinking to wonder how Germany can defend Europe rather than threaten it. Can Germany shift? Can  other Europeans shift? Can the Russians shift to seeing Germany as an obstacle to Russian advances rather than the reverse? America needs to lead NATO.

Russian USVs will challenge NATO in the Baltic Sea? Stop the mania. Mine the Gulf of Finland and Kaliningrad's ports and deploy shore-based strike assets in support. That supposed silver bullet will be nipped in the bud.

I have my doubts that Saudi Arabia would want to have another go at a ground war with the Houthi. 

Advocating an American Central Asia strategy. The strategy should be helping Russia resist Chinese inroads to Russia's "near abroad" there if Russia stops its war on Ukraine and ends hostility toward NATO. Other than that, I don't want to dilute limited resources in that area with no reliable access.

This is because the European Union is not in fact a sovereign state! It's a proto-imperial body with ambitions to strip away the prefix. Do not go along with their ambition. Kill the EU. And revert it to a common market, I say.

This should boost Western drone production: "China has stopped selling Ukraine drones and drone components. Ukraine’s solution is to rely on increased production by its domestic drone manufacturers and obtaining more drones and parts from the United States and NATO countries." 

Russian chemical warfare.

Will Arab Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia rally to provide regional security that lifts the burden from America? Well, the hope in the 1970s that Iran would provide that security didn't work out so well for us. 

China's campaign to undermine Oceania spanning the second and third island chains in the Pacific. Japan advanced through it in 1941-1942 to threaten Australia-United States sea lines of communication.

Will America transfer wartime control of combined forces to South Korea, as long discussed? Will that end American control and risk being dragged into a war with crisis response controlled by South Korea? Does it hamper America using South Korea as a power projection platform? Walking away isn't free.

There is no clear evidence that Russia's nuclear submarine base in Kamchatka was significantly damaged by the recent earthquake-generated tsunami waves. 

Did fear of national-building lead Israel to avoid government-building? "Militarily, Hamas is barely functioning, but on the civilian level, they still control everything. The IDF should have taken control and used that to install alternative leadership." I had thoughts on that early in the war.

Europe worries about the Sickly Islamist Man of Europe. I had hoped we only had an Erdogan problem ... But since Turkey no longer has a land border with Russia, Erdogan can focus on imperial ambitions.

No! Way!!

Brits to Yanks: We don't need a written constitution to protect our rights like you simple colonials. Wait. What?

Anybody can describe a doomsday chain-of-events scenario of denying Hamas a Gaza state. Say, what if Hamas gets its state, manages to get a nuke from an admirer in Iran or Pakistan, puts it on a ship and sails it into an Israeli harbor or just anchors off Israel's coast when the wind is blowing just right? 

No level of Hamas evil is enough to shake the fervor of its Western supporters. As I wrote long ago, such people are honored to be jihadi victims. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm pretty sure it's just a verbal rebuke to Putin's Nuke Monkey: "President Donald Trump said on Friday he's ordered two nuclear submarines to move to the 'appropriate regions' in response to what he called 'highly provocative statements' from the deputy chair of Russia's security council, Dmitry Medvedev." 

Huh: "Refaim is the Israeli Defense Forces/IDF effort to apply new drone warfare weapons and techniques while gathering information on who the enemy is, where they are and what they can do. In the midst of all this, Refaim will coordinate attacks on detected targets from army, air force and naval units." Similar?

True, but "can" does a lot of work: "A war between NATO and Russia would be one- sided even without the Americans. European NATO nations can raise far more troops and equip them with more tanks, warplanes and warships than Russia can muster." How much can Russia take before its army culminates?

Oh? "The militant organization Hamas on Saturday said it would not disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established." Define what a state means, please. 

How Pakistan ambushed an Indian Rafale fighter with capabilities India did not know about. 

Why is Western "leadership" in the Middle East defined as rewarding the perpetually evil and self-destructive Palestinians who will accept nothing less than future chances to joyfully dip their hands in the blood of Jewish victims? 

Remember FPV Drone, Thou Art But a Weapon

The panty-flinging over small suicide drones will soon be officially embarrassing. 

This author writes that counter-measures being rushed into service will supplement existing tactics and equipment to end the reign of small, cheap suicide drone dominance. The drones will need to follow the path of air forces to be effective:

In many ways, AI-enabled UAS could mimic air force tactics developed soon after the invention of the combat aircraft. There would be intelligence gathering, attack and bomber drones for the forward battlefield, interceptors to warn of inbound attacks and fighter variants for aerial combat. Thus, AI-enabled drones will undoubtedly be a potent 21st century air force, augmenting, if not replacing, a human in the cockpit — a capability that’s dangerously inexpensive and no longer exclusive to nation states.

I wrote much the same, most recently in this post about the rise of counter-measures and the "brown sky" air campaigns mimicking the blue sky Air Force campaigns:

Indeed, the drones might fight low-level air campaigns in the "brown skies" just above forward combat units that look like "blue sky" Air Force campaigns with specialty drones for ground attack, recon, electronic warfare, intercepting enemy drones or protecting friendly drones, and maybe aerial refueling. You might even have recovery drones to pick up downed UAVs. 

The small drones aren't finished, the author writes. I agree. They will be one more piece of the combined arms kit. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Britain Bends the Knee to the Islamophobia Throne

Last month, Britain grudgingly conceded remembered the twentieth anniversary of the 7/7 terror attacks. In twenty more years on the current trajectory, there will a statue of a frightened Moslem child awaiting the dread British backlash.

In America, we went abroad to fight jihadis after September 11, 2001 to fight Islamist jihadis "over there" so we wouldn't have to fight them "over here." Britain started the fight "over here" and doesn't seem to have its heart in defeating the threat:

Today should not only be a day of remembrance, but also a timely reminder of the threat that continues to be posed by Islamist extremism – the principal terror threat the UK faces. Despite recent claims to the contrary, this is clearly borne out by the available data. The overwhelming majority of suspects on MI5’s terror watchlist are jihadists. The number of Islamist extremists on the watchlist – in the region of 40,000 – constitutes as many as one in a hundred Muslims in the UK. According to recent government figures, roughly two in three prisoners in custody for terrorism and terrorism-connected offences are Islamic extremists. 

Those are some effed up statistics for the members of the religion of peace seeking refuge from the horrors of their countries of origin.

Let me return to my old observation that Mark Steyn highlighted that applies to "better dead than rude" Britain even more than it applies to America:

After Sept. 11, 2001, many agonized progressives looked at America and its allies' relations with the Muslim world and argued that we need to ask ourselves: why do they hate us? As Brian Dunn, a Michigan blogger, put it, a more relevant question is: why do we hate us? After all, if all our institutions, from grade school to public broadcasting to Hollywood movies to Canadian "human rights" commissars, operate from the basic assumption that Western civilization is the font of racism, imperialism, oppression, exploitation and all the other ills of the world, why be surprised that the rest of humanity takes us at our word?

The Long War continues, though we pretend it is over. 

Worse, too many have inverted the victim status. To be clear, not all Moslems support terrorists. But by saying the terrorists have a reason to hate, we make it more difficult for Moslems to reject the Islamist ideology that motivates mass murder of Westerners. Which makes another Islamist murder spree just a matter of time.

Have a super sparkly day. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to. 

NOTE: Photo from the BBC.