Germany Notices It Has an Enemy

Even guilt-ridden and pacifistic Germany committed to the Euro-Disney view of Europe as a post-conflict sanctuary where peace is achieved with 10,000 cheese regulations has decided it needs a real military.

Sh*t got real: 

This year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledged to build Europe’s strongest army – a tall order for a country whose military has undergone years of neglect.

The coalition government is hoping a new bill agreed upon last week will help make this a reality, bolstering Germany’s forces in the face of the perceived threat from Russia and a significant shift in US foreign policy.

The sweeping new reforms will see Germany attempt to boost its numbers to 260,000 soldiers, up from around 180,000 currently, in addition to an extra 200,000 reservists, by 2035.

For Germany, defending itself has been a wild ride. And it isn't over.

Bravo, Putin. Truly impressive. 

Strategery. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Needs a Buffer Zone

If a ceasefire in the Winter War of 2022 is accomplished, Ukraine needs a buffer zone large enough to prevent Russia from using "take and talk" tactics to nibble away at Ukrainian territory. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe could be a template to protect Ukraine and provide a fig leaf for Russia about NATO "retreat" that conceals a Russian pivot east.

The war goes on. Ukraine inflicts disproportionate casualties on the Russians who persist in slowly advancing. Russia hopes to freeze Ukrainians with aerial bombardment and Ukraine seeks to throttle Russia's offensive with their own aerial offensive. The shiny object in the deadly grind was Ukraine attacking a Russian Kilo submarine in a Russian Black Sea port, apparently with a suicide UUV. It is unclear how much the sub was damaged.

America participated in talks with contributions to terms of post-war security guarantees for Ukraine: 

According to Zelenskyy and Ukrainian officials, the discussions in Berlin focused on a package of five documents that would underpin an eventual peace deal, several of which are dedicated to long‑term security guarantees for Ukraine.

Russia won't accept that. And even if they are really desperate enough to pretend to accept that, we cannot become confused by that outcome. It is not enough to end the war. Russia has to be pointed away from Ukraine and NATO.

Getting a ceasefire without setting Ukraine up for the killing blow as Russia reloads and resumes the war from advanced positions inside its Ukrainian conquests is the problem. We should insist on a new Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

That treaty limited troops and weapons in Europe to eliminate the chance of a "bolt from the blue" offensive. Having enough troops to go to war would require detectable large-scale ground force movement. The original agreement limited armaments within a geographic region:

The CFE Treaty set equal ceilings for each bloc (NATO and the Warsaw Treaty Organization), from the Atlantic to the Urals, on key armaments essential for conducting surprise attacks and initiating large-scale offensive operations. 

In addition:

To further limit the readiness of armed forces, the treaty set equal ceilings on equipment that could be deployed with active units. Other ground equipment had to be place in designated permanent storage sites. 

And:

The treaty further limited the proportion of armaments that could be held by any one country in Europe to about one-third of the total for all countries in Europe – the "sufficiency" rule.

All sea-based Naval forces were excluded from CFE Treaty accountability.

Further sub-limits addressed sensitive regions:

In addition to limits on the number of armaments in each category on each side, the treaty included regional limits intended to prevent destabilizing force concentrations of ground equipment. 

I think the new geographic scope for active duty ground troops should be from the new, NATO state territory bordering or near Russia and Ukraine to Russia's Ural Mountains. This has advantages for NATO states, Ukraine, and Russia:

• Nobody in "old" NATO wants to deploy many troops east. This means they don't have to. 
• Putin could claim this troop limitation amounts to "rolling back" NATO to protect Russia. 
• Regional limits could offer reassurance for Russia in Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg, Transnistria, and Crimea; Ukraine could get reassurances in specific regions to protect Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa, for example; and European NATO could have reassurances about limits on Russia's military presence in Belarus, for example.
• Russian security and puppet forces in occupied Ukraine would be limited to non-combat ground forces. 
• NATO would have limited "outside" forces in the east; but could instead focus on the logistics infrastructure to move and host reinforcements from old NATO countries in a crisis--which Russia already has on their side of the line.
• America gets justification for maintaining a limited role in NATO in order to achieve American objectives in Europe. 
• By pushing Russia's forces east, it implicitly allows Russia to pivot east to face China without explicitly naming China as the real threat. Surely Russia wants its deepening humiliation in the east to end.
• And with more Russian troops weighted to the east, Russia gains the ability to attract allies to counter China.

And really, this deployment would broadly reflect what happened in 2021 as Russia prepared to invade in 2022. Russia needed time to scrape up troops from all of Russia to invade. Yes, it should be more difficult for Russia under this type of agreement. But that is its purpose. And again, it could be spun by Moscow as validating their conquests, rolling back NATO, and preventing NATO from being a threat to Russia. Plus a justification for moving troops closer to China, where they are needed.

I'm not sure how this would affect a European monitoring force in Ukraine. But it probably means that to the relief of Europeans it will be smaller and lighter, especially on the ground. A provision to allow NATO to send more forces east to match any Russian troops sent west (or vice versa, I suppose) should be part of the deal. 

If Russia lies about NATO moves to justify moving troops west, NATO would know if Russia is lying and could--if it chooses not to ignore the deployments--declare Russia is violating the agreement and take steps to beef up NATO forces in the east and reinforce the Ukrainians.

Yet Russia may be relieved to have an excuse to treat European Russia as a safe rear area in order to focus on blunting Chinese influence in Central Asia and getting a firmer grip on its Far East territories taken from China in the 19th century that China no doubt covets. 

Over time, Russia may get used to friendlier relations with the West. But if not, it will take time for Russia to pose a threat to Ukraine and NATO. As long as the West has the will to act on Russian violations. But that has long been a problem.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

NOTE: I made the map with mapchart.net. Although the map extends Russia in Europe beyond the Ural mountain eastern boundary of a buffer zone, as near as I can tell.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy Part.1: The foundation of interacting with the world to secure America

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy Part 2: The Western Hemisphere

In case you missed it on Substack: The Medium Brigade Has Huge ... Tracts of Adjectives

In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy Part 3: Asia

Required reading on the Pentagon. I won't say it ratifies my thinking. I know far too little to say that. But it ratifies my refusal to believe hysterics by those who claim to know what is going on. But yeah: "Chaos can not be solved simply." It can only be deceptively described simply. So carry on. Tip to Instapundit.

My annual PSA for harried managers trying to plan a Christmas Party without calling it a Christmas Party. BEHOLD: The C.H.R.I.S.T.M.A.S. acronym. Eat your heart out Pentagon. And you're welcome. Also, let your little ones track Santa's mission with NORAD's help!

War on Terror very interested in us: "President Donald Trump said Saturday that “there will be very serious retaliation” after two U.S. service members and one American civilian were killed in an attack in Syria that the United States blames on the Islamic State group." 

Estonia has begun installing concrete bunkers on its border with Russia as part of a regional defensive belt.

Neither China nor Russia seem interested in protecting Maduro's Venezuela.

Missed this: "The Guard traces its lineage to a Dec. 13, 1636, order from the Massachusetts Bay Colony’s General Court establishing three permanent militia regiments, the descendants of which are still active today in the Massachusetts Army National Guard and are the oldest components of the U.S. military."

The Army National Guard on Saturday celebrates its 389th birthday amid months of hotly debated deployments to U.S. cities, recruiting success and a recent tragedy in the nation’s capital.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2025-12-13/national-guard-birthday-2025-history-scrutiny-20070552.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

The Army National Guard on Saturday celebrates its 389th birthday amid months of hotly debated deployments to U.S. cities, recruiting success and a recent tragedy in the nation’s capital.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2025-12-13/national-guard-birthday-2025-history-scrutiny-20070552.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

Navy exploited a late game interception to take the lead and defeat Army. Tough ending to watch. Congratulations, Navy. 

Welp, it's no longer "true Communism": "The Cuban economy is in freefall along with infrastructure and living standards. Most Cubans try to survive on a monthly salary of about $15. Nearly 90 percent of families live in extreme poverty." 

In case the Russian fleet wants to sortie toward the G-I-UK Gap: "In September the USAF successfully operated with Norwegian forces in the Norwegian Sea to test the Quicksink maritime weapon system in a realistic combat situation." Or to the Arctic. Quicksink is a Dollar Store air-launched "torpedo". 

North Korea is exploiting Russia's need for war support to modernize its conventional military. Well, a strategy of Kooks, Spooks, and Nukes was risky. 

Huh: "A U.S. special operations team boarded a ship in the Indian Ocean last month and seized military-related articles headed to Iran from China, U.S. officials said[.]" 

The Free World is at "peak disunity"? I'm old enough to remember that France pulled out of NATO's military command, Ostpolitik, Euro-Communism, Vietnam War divisions, and the anti-Theater Nuclear Weapons movement in Europe. We have some current time-centric thinking here, I believe.

Problems in Commie paradise?

When near, appear far: China's plan to quarantine Taiwan and avoid a shooting war. 

Russia's subliminal war on Europe.  

Do young Europeans want a United States of Europe? I'm skeptical this is a thing offline. Even if they do, that's not what they'll get. 

Pressure or preparation? "The government of Trinidad and Tobago said Monday that it would allow the U.S. military access to its airports in coming weeks[.]" And for what, if the latter? The government did say its territory "would not be used as a launchpad to attack any other country."

Hanging together: "South Korea and Australia are offering to relieve Washington’s strained defense supplier network, as U.S. defense planners grapple with bottlenecks in munitions production." 

The British invisible shield that maximized their air defense shield in the Battle of Britain. This is what I mean by taking air defense seriously again.

Subliminal war: "Manila rushed two patrol boats to protect fishermen in the South China Sea after a water cannon attack from Chinese cutters that left three injured in one of the most severe incidents at Sabina Shoal this year." 

Russia fakes propaganda videos of Ukrainians surrendering. Is this just part of the mix or does it reflect Russian fears of their own troops? Their firehose of falsehood is always active.

Australia after Islamist anti-Jewish murder spree: Ready. Fire! Aim?

Insurrectionists: "Federal law enforcement officials said Monday that four members of a far-left anti-government group have been arrested and face charges for allegedly planning a series of bomb attacks across Southern California on New Year's Eve." 

Blowback inside Russia: "After nearly four years of fighting in Ukraine, more Russian soldiers are reaching the end of their term of service and returning to Russia. Many of them are bringing their weapons home with them." Former criminal veterans use them. And others are sold to criminals who use them.

I'm old enough to remember when Nimitz was brand spanking new. 

American arms left behind sustain the Taliban regime and support terrorists in Pakistan and other neighboring countries. Blowback on Pakistan is a bitch.

Translating Winter War of 2022 drone warfare lessons directly to the western Pacific isn't possible. 

The narrative is false: "One of these [false narratives] which has taken hold among many since the humiliating end to the war in Afghanistan, is that the American military doesn’t win wars, or that it hasn’t since the end of World War II." Preaching to the TDR choir, he is. And then go to the Definitions Section.

Marine Force Design: "beneath the surface of innovative ideas, stand-in forces, distributed operations, and advanced platforms, there is a constant and often overlooked weakness: logistics." Preaching to the TDR choir.

America is an ally under suspicion ... by Europeans? Face it, when it comes to Europeans, America can't get its power and influence just right.

So America should leave eastern Syria? "The regional balance of power is now driven by Turkey, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, whose competing ambitions collectively prevent any single hegemon from dominating the Levant." That's a hope and not a strategy. Let's not repeat Obama's errors about Iraq.

Do past Russian wars of conquest that over-stretched Russia's military and domestic situation offer insights into the Winter War of 2022?

Lafayette, we are up here!

Can American and allied forces prevent it from ranging over the western Pacific? China unveiled the CH-47 unmanned " long-range reconnaissance and target identification" stealth aircraft. That makes it harder to break their kill chain.

I have hope that America can assimilate second and third generations, but Europe can't: "Sharia has caused many problems when Moslem people, generally Arabs or Afghans, migrate to Western countries. Islam insists that sharia supersedes any local laws." But America must promote assimilation.

Icebreakers. Apparently the Arctic Sea isn't going to be ice-free year round any time soon. 

I noted the break in the headlong rush to Marine Force Design by 2030. Will the Marines reverse course and use the aircraft they already have to contribute to the anti-ship mission? And don't forget the NECC.

Building Navy warships has problems that "stem from a series of interwoven, systemic issues within both the U.S. government and industry, as well as broader socioeconomic trends." Start with the Navy's inability to design and manage the building of a ship class.

Ukraine fears that a third round of losing territory to Russia could be a repeat of the serial partitions of Poland that eliminated it as a state for more than a century. 

When Air Force advocates celebrate the air power-as-silver-bullet purist Billy Mitchell, I worry. America needs a strong Air Force. But air power needs to support ground and sea power to be effective.

The U.S. designated Maduro's government as a foreign terrorist organization and has ordered all sanctioned tankers to stay away from Venezuela. 

Oh FFS, this is a monumentally stupid comparison. What? The authors didn't want to note that upright bipeds are confronting Maduro--just like they did with Saddam?

This is what a tyranny's relentless suppression of dissent looks like.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Mossad Director David Barnea said on Tuesday that Iran 'has not abandoned its aspiration to destroy the State of Israel'[.]" Yet it needed to be said because too many Westerners would sign another bad nuclear deal.

If China can finally tap its oil shale resources to go from being the world's largest importer to being self-sufficient, that's significant. One, China needs Russia even less. Two, it's harder to blockade China to harm warmaking capacity. And three, would it turn traditionally land-focused China inland, away from the sea?

It's a target-rich environment: "The U.S. State Department said Clan del Golfo, which is based in Colombia, has been listed both as a foreign and a global terrorist group[.]"

South Korean contractors leaked details of Taiwan's new subs being built.

Russia disapproves: "Kazakhstan is moving ahead with a $1 billion plan to build NATO-standard artillery ammunition factories to reduce its reliance on Russian models[.]" But it's a prudent move for Kazakhstan.

Huh: "Congress wants to know why the Space Force needs a special operations component command, and wants answers before any taxpayer money is spent on creating it." The "why" is simple. Space troops will be few and well-trained. Money will be needed for SMOD!

CRS report to Congress on the defense industrial base.

Norway will help Ukraine restock its depleted S-300 air defense magazine. How is unclear.

Norway should absolutely look to the defense of their Arctic island territories. 

Iran's military aid to Venezuela "includes fast-attack boats, anti-ship missiles, drones, and even a Hezbollah presence."  How much of the hardware passes through Maduro to the Hezbollah New World empire?

Indeed: "It’s almost cliché but nonetheless true: The U.S. military’s AI-enabled platforms are only as good as their inputs." Yeah, the speed of FUBAR could be simply awesome. 

The United States continues to mow the jihadi grass in Somalia. It's a de facto Lexington Rule case, eh? Will the pirates now get the drug smuggler treatment? Fingers crossed.

Venezuela is in the crosshairs. Sometimes the clues really are in plain sight, I guess. 

Golden Dome is eventually intended to protect far-flung American territory such as Guam. Which means it will encompass a lot of allies and friends. If completed. 

Patriot gets a 360° firing capability: "The US Army is addressing one of Patriot’s most persistent shortcomings: its ability to engage threats outside a narrow forward arc." 

Yes, Venezuela's military is poor yet would be tough to pacify. But I can't imagine America plans occupation or even sustained air/missile strikes. Related thoughts on American ground combat capabilities.

Are Turkey and the Syrian government it installed going to go after the Kurds in northern Syria?  

Sure, the North Korea-Russia alliance could fade as their wartime romance fades. China exerts a tremendous pull on North Korea and Russia. But for Russia and North Korea, there could be safety in numbers. 

Resolve Theater: Venezuela has ordered its navy to escort oil tankers. But not sanctioned tankers so far. 

What will China do when America ignores the order? "China told the United States on Thursday to "immediately stop" arming Taiwan after Washington had approved the sale of $11 billion of weapons to the island." Despite hysteria, American policy is clearly not stepping aside to let China capture Taiwan.

Germany votes to rearm. 

Will escalating American pressure on Venezuela inspire a coup against Maduro? And if so, will Venezuela have hope for getting better? Success would weaken Hezbollah and Iran in Latin America; and weaken Cuba.

The war on drugs continues to be kinetic in the eastern Pacific.

Good, but I doubt if the Russian fleet will make it far enough west for the Danes to use their new shore-based anti-ship missiles. 

Details on the large American arms package for Taiwan that got China's panties in a twist. 

Canada's military is preparing to operate F-35s, although the government may not purchase the needed fighter over a snit with America over trade.

China built a prototype for a new hybrid-electric 2-man main battle tank. 

Ukraine has a new surface drone: "Ukrainian naval drones have revolutionized naval warfare that takes place within a few hundred kilometers of a coastline." At that range, a country with a more complete military have missile options for that sort of thing?

A Navy LCS launched a low-cost LUCAS suicide drone (that looks like Iranian Shaded drones) from its flight deck. This is good for platform flexibility and cheapness, but a single launch doesn't add mass.

The National Security Strategy barely mentions jihadi terrorism. First, thanks for spoiling the rest of the document as I read and comment. We have bigger problems in the big picture. We still mow jihadi grass in Somalia. Wait for the national military strategy. Also, Trump downgraded Africa? That ship sailed.

Advocating a theater Joint Task Force in INDOPACOM for warfighting responsibilities. If China manages a bolt from the blue, we'll want that already in place.

America has a tradition that started in the Revolution of eventually creating a lethal military despite initial unpreparedness. Since the Korean War we've been much better prepared initially. Could America match the historical record of innovation in this era? Would it be soon enough to matter?

Should the United States bypass Britain to secure our base rights at Diego Garcia? I'm not eager to undermine Britain. But the idea is intriguing and I'd like to sign up for the newsletter. 

China is not on the brink of matching American submarine warfare capabilities. That's reassuring. Because the alternative is disturbing. 

Why Central Asia matters to America again. Perhaps. But I'm not eager to plunge in.

I certainly hope that police and security forces are ready if something on the terror front is brewing in the West . Tip to Instapundit. 

Should Russia be resisted or accommodated? The author seems to think as I do that Russia needs to be resisted to force Moscow to accommodates us.

If Putin is confident about Russia, he doesn't know the truth. And if Putin knows, his costly war on Ukraine is bizarre. As a famous man once said, continuing this war is worse than wrong. It is a mistake. 

Lie back and think of international maritime law? 

It would be nice if we who are the enemies of the mullahs are doing more than hoping: "In the wake of the Israel–Iran war in June, all the signs point to a regime in Tehran that is nearing collapse." 

While Britain needs a stronger military, including its navy, I think this analysis over-states Russia's naval capabilities. Sustaining in combat what Britain has is surely a short-term priority over numbers.

Ukraine hit one of Putin's shadow tankers off the coast of Libya. 

The Houthi are apparently preparing a ground offensive in Yemen.

Hello, Turkey: "Senior officials from Israel, Greece, and Cyprus are discussing the possibility of establishing a rapid-response force composed of units from the armed forces of the three countries[.]" Reaction to Turkey's ambition is growing.

Thailand and Cambodia aren't at war--but they sure aren't at peace. 

The United States hit ISIL hard in Syria in retaliation for the killing of three Americans on an outreach mission in central Syria: "Roughly 70 targets were hit in the operation, the two US officials said." Perhaps regular grass mowing is needed there.

Huh: "Last month the Russian Defense Ministry discovered that they did not have enough cash to pay all the soldiers or provide money to induce civilians to join the army." Russia is attempting to pay for guns and butter.

Is India about to end their persistent Maoist insurgency problem? Or at least turn it into a nuisance problem? 

Configure with care: "The U.S. Navy has confirmed its decision to acquire a new FF(X) frigate with a design based on the U.S. Coast Guard’s Legend class National Security Cutter, though there are immediate questions about its expected configuration." 

Are Japan and South Korea going to heal their relations (based on a brutal Japanese colonial rule of Korea) to focus on the China threat to both? That's long been an American goal.

The U.S. Coast Guard seized another sanctioned Venezuelan tanker. Keep in mind that Venezuela is only escorting its unsanctioned tankers--and not all the way to their customer, of course. 

The U.S. and its allies are leaning forward: "The U.S. Navy has become more active in helping the Philippines block China from taking areas of the South China Sea that are legally Filipino. They patrol a bit more and cast mean looks towards China."

Haircut wars.

Yes, this is an American advantage: "Done well, immigration expands the talent networks that drive startups, AI, biotech, advanced manufacturing, and military capacity—preserving strategic depth for a decades-long rivalry." But note the qualifier: "Done well ..." 

From the "Well, Duh" files: "U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his aims of capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire[.]" I maintain Trump's charm offensive is ultimately trying to "flip" Russia. 

Paris has a "New Year's" problem. France's solution is to cancel the celebration. The Battle of Tours 2.0 is lost. Belgrade and Tokyo have joined Paris. My pucker factor is up for New York City.

To the Shores of Taiwan

The Marines edge closer to Taiwan. Close enough to shield Army-Marine movements to defend Taiwan.

Well that's interesting:

Over the past two months, the U.S. Marine Corps have been shuttling equipment to and from Kubura Port on Yonaguni Island, one of Japan’s farthest outlying islands just 70 miles from Taiwan. The back-and-forth shipments of medical supplies and disaster response equipment comes at an increasing pace as the Corps aims to make Yonaguni Island a focal point in its First Island Chain strategy.

This outpost will allow the Marines to shield the threat from the north to movement from the Philippines to Taiwan by joint Army-Marine forces that would be possible with Marine and Army 101st Airborne division capabilities:

It sure looks like there will be a joint Army-Marine expeditionary force sent to Taiwan if China invades. Sometimes separate things that don’t make sense can become reasonable when pieced together.

I still think the Marines are getting their Navy-support capabilities the wrong way and at a high price. But it is what it is in the near term.

And of course, the PLA ground forces that run the gauntlet and dig in on Taiwan must be destroyed--not simply stopped--with Taiwanese and allied forces. 

I sure hope the Air Force and Navy can keep the sea lines of communication open. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Map showing the island the Marines are building up from the article.

A Left-Handed Compliment to the Pentagon

Is America's military a force that hasn't won a war since 1991? I will quibble. Although this is an improvement on the usual claim that America hasn't won a war since 1945. Nonetheless, I cheer on the changes imposed on our senior leadership notwithstanding my quibbles. 

What about this charge against the Pentagon? 

It is a military that has not won a war since 1991 in the Persian Gulf, and that was spread thin fighting endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and waging the Global War on Terror. 

Usually the claim is about all post-World War II American conflicts. I can't even count all the articles I've read in recent decades that our last victory was World War II. So ... progress! 

It is also necessary to consider the point spread our military uniquely operates under in non-great power wars. And don't forget the big picture context!

But our good record is despite our senior leadership that has built speed bumps in the path of America's military this century. Voting can deal with the civilians. Purges are needed for the flag and general officers who were deliberately selected by past civilian leadership who created our distractions. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

China's Subliminal Warfare Relies on the Color of Law

China insists that the world obey China's ambitions rather than the international law China itself claims to obey.

China is focusing its subliminal offensive on weak Philippines in its effort to claim the bulk of the South China Sea:

China has been doubling down on the narrative that the Philippines is the regional “troublemaker” that repeatedly engages in unlawful behavior and provokes conflict and confrontation. This labelling is part of China’s systematic efforts to promote legal counterfactuals that undermine established international law in order to complement and support its South China Sea agenda. 

This is power projection in the physical and psychological arenas.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo of the China Coast Guard attacking a Philippine civilian government ship with a water cannon from the article. 

Taiwan Goes Asymmetric

Taiwan has decided to embrace asymmetric means to inflict casualties on a Chinese invasion force. That alone won't work.

Taiwan has agreed to do what the "cool kids" want them to do:

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te announced that his government will introduce the Special Budget for Asymmetric Warfare on November 25—the largest special budget in Taiwanese history. The proposed budget would markedly improve Taiwanese warfighting capabilities and its efforts to implement an asymmetric defense strategy to deter a PRC invasion. The proposed budget amounts to approximately 40 billion US dollars to be spent from 2026 to 2033. The budget is twice as large as Taiwan’s second largest special budget passed in October 2025. The budget reportedly allocates funds for arms, including precision artillery, long-range precision strike munitions, anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, unmanned aerial and surface vehicles, drone countermeasure systems, and artificial intelligence-assisted command and control systems. Taiwanese media reported that Taiwan would either domestically produce those systems or buy them from the United States. [emphasis in original]

I'm not against a variety of weapons and systems to conduct combined arms and joint operations. But there's a disturbing magical unicorn aspect to the whole thing, no? 

I don't think we have any idea what level of casualties will deter China from invading Taiwan. 

And if China manages to push through the casualties using a lot of transport means to establish bridgeheads on Taiwan, the Chinese only have to hang on. Taiwan will find it needs those "obsolete" weapons like tanks to drive the PLA into the sea. 

Because as I observed in Military Review, if the PLA remains on Taiwan after a ceasefire, China will be poised to win in a future military campaign.

Have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

Dragged Under in a Sea of Navy Red Tape

Bureaucrats and their proliferating red tape are a threat to preparing the Navy to fight tonight--or at least in the next couple years.

Are Navy desk jockeys China's secret weapon?

The present system of time allocation in the surface fleet is not a deliberate product of a warfighting-centric focus, but rather an unchecked process of creeping administrative overload. When new tacticians and training tools hit the fleet, they are eclipsed and diluted by a vast array of miscellaneous requirements. The leaders of the surface force must launch an effort to systematically protect time for tactics by aggressively pruning other requirements, or else these new efforts will fall short.

Woke infection has certainly been a problem at higher levels that distracts senior leadership from actual Navy responsibilities. But I have long figured the Mickey Mouse bureaucratic crap has been more of a problem than wokeness closer to the pointy end of the stick. 

Though this is Army focused, we need a staff diet for the military to get in warfighting shape in the era of Great Power Competition.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Image from the article.

The Winter War of 2022 Moves On After Pokrovsk

For a long time, Pokrovsk has been the central focus of Russia's offensive effort. With the small city all but captured, Russia is looking beyond--well beyond--that city in ways that don't reflect the importance of the victory.

Russia hasn't fully taken Pokrovsk (and nearby Mynohrad) yet. But unless Ukraine has a significant reserve that is being well concealed to counter-attack significantly as at Kupyansk, the city is basically lost:

Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not yet seized Pokrovsk, but the situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but will take more time and suffer more casualties to do so.

Russia wants everyone to think this is significant--and overlook the time and casualties it took to advance to the city--and means Russia can call the shots in the post-war settlement:

The Kremlin is setting information conditions to reject any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine by threatening Europe.

For how Ukraine is governed:

The Kremlin preemptively rejected the legitimacy of any future Ukrainian government that it does not directly control in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent statements that he is ready to hold elections before the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

And for doing anything other than finishing off Ukraine:

The Kremlin once again rejected the Ukrainian-proposed ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes and signaled Russia’s commitment to destroying the Ukrainian power grid in the winter months. 

Does Putin believe he is all powerful? Do Europeans believe that? Do Putin's troops believe that?

Is China impressed? 

I hope that America's indirect military aid continues and that America's direct support in intelligence continues to bolster growing European efforts to provide Ukraine with the means to defeat Russia's invasion. Ukraine's successful local counter-attack at Kupyansk demonstrates Ukrainians are very much in the fight:

Ukrainian 2nd Khartiya Corps reported on December 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack to stabilize the situation in the Kupyansk direction and liberated Kindrashivka and Radkivka (both north of Kupyansk) and the surrounding forests, liberated areas in northern Kupyansk, and broke through to the Oskil River, cutting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the Kupyansk area. The Ukrainian 2nd Corps stated that Ukrainian forces have encircled roughly 200 Russian personnel in Kupyansk as of December 12.

America may not have the same interest in sacrificing to stop the Russians so far east of the Elbe River Cold War front compared to the Europeans. But my view is that America is safer when Russia is farther east. 

I have long hoped Ukraine's counter-attack that punished over-extended Russian troops at Kupyansk would be routine. The scale of the victory in terms of Russian losses in unclear.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.  

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Transformation in Contact Reaches Army Armored Brigades

In case you missed it on Substack: Urban Warfare is Necessary But Dangerously Appealing

In case you missed it on Substack: The Promise and Failure of U.N. Peacekeepiing

In case you missed it on Substack: Marine Littoral Regiments Stopped at Two

From the "Well, Duh" files: "A new Russian military unit that replaced the Wagner mercenary group is carrying out abuses including rapes and beheadings as it teams up with Mali ‘s military to hunt down extremists[.]" Chaos is what Russia intends in order to drive migrants into Europe.

Paris is a city afraid: "The New Year’s Eve concert on the Champs Élysées has been cancelled for security reasons." Well, fear is better than two decades of ignoring car burnings by youths of unknown origin. Tip to Instapundit.

I hope Taiwan doesn't finish them just in time for China to capture them: "Taipei’s first domestically built attack boat held its latest sea trials last month amid news of significant delays that have postponed Taiwan’s ambitious submarine program." 

Recounting the way the F**k-Up Fairy has treated Russia during the Winter War of 2022. The returning soldiers--often hardened criminals pardoned to go to war--could be a huge problem for Putin. Every f**k-up is another block building another Time of Troubles for Russia. Bravo.

Can Ukraine scale up its sea drones to actually control the Black Sea to use it freely rather than deny Russia easy use of the sea without risking unnecessary Russian losses? A lot of small drones linked could replicate the capabilities of a warship during calm seas, no?

Via Instapundit, yet some say the U.S. causes strained trans-Atlantic relations: "The EU has virtually declared war on free speech and is targeting American companies. That war just began with the first DSA fine. Not surprisingly, X was the chosen target[.]" Of course the EU did that. The EU is an enemy.

Force restructuring: U.S. Army North, U.S. Army South, and Army Forces Command are now combined in Fort Bragg as Western Hemisphere Command, with XVIII Corps. I Corps is under U.S. Army Pacific and III Corps is under U.S. Army Europe-Africa. V Corps already has forward elements in Poland.

Yeah, since summer 2003 I've waited for a major movie about the battles and Larry, Curley, and Moe during an opposed Thunder Run into and out of Baghdad. But nothing. Why? 

I've long supported AFRICOM's role for fighting jihadis in Africa. Fighting jihadis in the Sahel is complicated by Russian activities that exploit that unrest to drive migrants into Europe. 

Artillery is still vital but it can't stand still for long. Reasonable. Yet if Russian counter-battery fire is so fast, how have any of Ukraine's towed artillery survived? 

The Navy will get its LSM to move Marine anti-ship teams around the western Pacific. Still looks like a barge with pretensions. 

Hmmm: "After two years of combat operations in Gaza, a senior Israeli official recounted the technological leaps in ground combat and called the conflict nothing less than the 'first robotics war.'" 

Because Hamas won't quit: "The 'yellow line' that divides Gaza under Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan is a 'new border' for Israel, the country’s military chief told soldiers deployed in the territory." A Plan B makes sense with Hamas still committed to murdering Israelis no matter what the cost to Gazans.

The Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire is a little explodey lately. 

The Australian army is absorbing heavy armor. Should light forces land on Australia, heavy forces will be useful to drive the invaders into the sea. 

Is technology undermining British (and allied) control of the Atlantic? 

Secret aerial victory to be recognized with Medal of Honor. I thought I already read about that battle. 

Provocation: "Chinese J-15 fighter jets twice locked radar targets on Japanese F-15 fighters over the weekend while Japan monitored the People’s Liberation Army Navy aircraft carrier CNS Liaoning (16)[.]" A twitchy trigger finger away from combat? Unless the pilots weren't given live missiles to avoid that risk.

The U.S. will seek new basing rights in the western Pacific. 

I understood the need to use Marines to help the Navy with anti-ship missions. I didn't understand why Force Design was the solution. And if it is, why all the non-western Pacific Marines had to lose their needed ground combat capabilities.

A new frigate design--this time with feeling! Or hopefully competence and the avoidance of gold-plating to build pocket battleships. 

Congress may restrict the president from removing troops from Europe. This is a far cry from the days when Congress tried to compel the president to remove troops from Europe. I advise people to breathe a bit.

Are NATO and the EU doomed? Is a new union needed? I'm not worried about NATO unraveling but I am eager for the EU to unravel. But is "a new political project: a 'federation' including the Nordic countries, Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Ukraine—and possibly others" needed? Sounds like JEF+, no? 

I reject the idea that after the Cold War the West didn't try to calm Russian fears. That list of defense reduction was off the top of my head and didn't include Bush 43 looking into Putin's soul, Obama's "reset" after Russia invaded Georgia, or Trump's efforts to calm the Russians the ef down.

What's up with China's economic data suppression? 

Uh oh: "While the STC has been predominantly aligned with Yemen’s Saudi-backed and internationally recognized government in their fight against the Iran-supported [Houthi], the sweeping offensive launched last week and continuing through Monday took place throughout nominally government-held territory, including the oil-rich province of Hadramawt and neighboring Mahra."

Smart rifles: "European militaries are showing growing interest in a technology that turns standard service rifles into last-resort drone killers, an Israeli weapons maker says, as countries look for cheaper ways to counter the surge in uncrewed systems." That's huge for defense. Smart rifles will change training, too. 

I think Turkish troops in Gaza is a really bad idea. Unless the Turks are stuck in the Hamas half of a divided Plan B Gaza.

I worry about declining military aid to Ukraine. But I bet the 43% reduction in aid since July from the previous six months is largely caused by Biden jamming military aid into the pipeline as he left office. Trump didn't halt that aid, I'll note. 

Germany really isn't going to rearm. I've been skeptical. I'm more broadly skeptical about the Europeans.

Europeans are upset that Trump's new security document says Europe is being erased by mass immigration by those who cannot or will not be assimilated. I suspect that before it is too late, the Europeans will be as brutal as their long history indicates they can be. It will be bloody either way.

Sure, we've suffered from jihadi terror attacks since we fled Afghanistan. But I am truly shocked we haven't had something spectacular like 9/11 follow us home. 

Oh FFS. WiFi availability on Truman distracted the crew, leading to mishaps? "Many Sailors spend their down time on their phones rather than studying for qualifications[.]" Other problems are cited, but seriously?

Report to Congress on Navy ship names. Honestly, I'd name them for Jane Fonda and the dude in a wig who sold Bud Light if we would just get new combat ship in sufficient quantities. Hell, name a sub Barb!

Great! But triple whatever number they calculate: "The Pentagon must develop a plan to fill munition stockpiles to levels needed for U.S. forces to fight multiple large-scale conflicts at once [under a 2026 NDAA provision.]" 

Not sure I like this. 

Good: "The U.S. Navy has recovered an MH-60R Seahawk helicopter and an F/A-18F Super Hornet from the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz that crashed within half an hour of each other in the South China Sea on Oct. 26." Now find out why they went down. Two accidents is too darn close to "enemy action" for me.

Space Force wants missile interceptors. 

Russia abused a road that criss-crosses Estonian and Russian territory. Estonia closed it. The article discusses Narva, which I wrote about in Army magazine.

The British will keep their army closer to home. 

Symbolic Chinese-Russian action only, in my opinion: "Japan and South Korea scrambled jets on Tuesday in response to a joint Chinese-Russian bomber patrol over international waters near both of those nations." 

Good: "Poland will hand over its remaining MiG-29 combat jets to Ukraine in exchange for new missile and drone technology[.]" Fewer than a dozen. 

I'm confident America will close the rare earths gap that China has dominated. Rare earths aren't actually rare. The issue has been we pretended that refusing to process them at home was environmentally good because that was outsourced to countries that don't care about protecting the environment. See no evil ...

Russia and Ukraine vie for small drone supremacy. Is it just me or do the fiber-optic drones just seem like long-range Saggers? 

More details on Ukraine's Spiderweb drone attack on Russia's bombers: "The SBU spent nearly two years planning Spiderweb and it worked." As I noted, this isn't a new method of warfare--it was a new form of special forces attack. If it can be done weekly on short notice, get back to me. 

Equipping the Abrams with Switchblade suicide drones. 

Abolish the Marine Corps?  The Marines thought being a "second Army" would make them redundant. Then Force Design 2030 made them a third navy--the Coast Guard is the second--and people noticed. Sigh.

I have avoided reading takes on the new national security strategy. Most are too partisan. This guy, I basically trust: "To some extent, this document embraces what had been a left-wing view, and it will be attacked by some on the left as the abandonment of a moral imperative. History has a sense of humor."

The U.S. seized a sanctioned oil tanker--whose owner has ties to Maduro--heading for Cuba off the coast of Venezuela.  

Iran may evacuate Tehran due to a water shortage: "Some Iranian officials have pointed the finger at the West, accusing the US High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program of  'cloud theft' and sophisticated weather warfare." Can the mullahs survive that failure--by them and Allah? Via Instapundit.

How long could Britain fight a war? Not long. I n 2011 no European state could fight Libya without outstripping their stockpiles. That said, Putin is just beating his chest and flinging poo.

Cuba's terror network and its supply of cannon fodder for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Cuba supplied expeditionary forces to fight for the Soviets in Ethiopia and Angola during the Cold War. The more things change ... But what is Cuba getting in return?

I see the proto-imperial EU "has erected a Multitude of new Offices, and sent hither Swarms of Officers to harrass our People, and eat out their Substance." 

Indonesia's president visited Moscow: "Indonesia, like much of Southeast Asia, looks to Russia as a potential hedge against rivalry between the US and China." Russia's Plan B develops. 

That's one way to bypass state-level obstruction of federal law: "The Trump administration is adding another militarized zone to the southern U.S. border to support border security operations — this time in California." 

As I expected, AUKUS passed the Pentagon review. 

Sh*t got real: "A contingent of six U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets, roughly a full squadron, is now forward-deployed at the former Naval Station Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico." 

I've been shocked Ukraine didn't already build them: "Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that his country has begun using homegrown Sapsan (which means peregrine falcon) ballistic missiles in combat against Russia." Assuming the claim is true.

Denmark's intelligence assessment of America as a potential security concern is--and forgive the technical term--stupid.

Russia innovates with a new form of firepower to support their dreg infantry: "Desperate to overcome the Ukrainian drone advantage against Russian forces in Ukraine, Russia did something different. In mid-2024 they created [the] Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies." 

Practically speaking, fighting overseas requires this approach: The American way of war: The primary advantage U.S. forces have in wartime is logistics. ... American forces did not win every battle, but the enemy always took a beating." My advice remains firm.

The legal logic behind an actual war on drug cartels.

Are triangular patrol bases as obsolete as walled fortresses? 

Yap: "Despite the Federated States of Micronesia’s Compact of Free Association with Washington, Beijing has secured a deal to refurbish the airfield—just 450 miles from Guam." Well, one such outpost is just East Berlin. But nip this in the bud before it is a trend.  

I'm glad they don't just try to punish successful Americans vexing them with a free-speech platform: "EU member states agreed on Thursday to create a legal basis for the use of Russian state assets for Ukraine by majority vote[.]" 

We learned that with remote weapons stations in Iraq: "Ukraine's drone schools say the best pupils tend to be young people with tech and gaming experience." Interpreting a 3D world on a small 2D screen is a skill.

Friends in need: "Japan said Thursday it held a joint air exercise with the United States in a show of force, days after Chinese-Russian patrols in the region and following weeks of diplomatic feuding between Tokyo and Beijing." 

Ukraine wants to be able to maintain an army of 800,000 after a ceasefire despite Russia's demand for a much lower size. This is a wordsmithing problem. I'm sure Ukraine can't afford an active army of 800,000. Most will be a reserve force, no? 

Praise the factory and pass the ammunition: "South Korea’s Hanwha is set to invest in a new $1 billion plant in the United States to produce Modular Charge Systems (MCS) for 155mm howitzer ammunition[.]" 

Ukraine needs train drone defenses: "Over the past four months, at least 300 Russian strikes have targeted trains and railway infrastructure[.]" In past wars trains needed troops and heavy weapons on the train to protect against partisans and insurgents. Drones are simply a new threat to be taken into account. 

China has flown the long-rang Juitian mothership drone capable of launching a drone swarm. We may need the AABONE to target the mothership drone and A-Whacks to deal with the drone swarm if launched.

Local contractors likely took the money and ran: "Recently CENTCOM personnel discovered that stockpiles of equipment for emergencies were in deplorable condition. The U.S. Army is responsible for maintaining these stockpiles and investigations are in progress to find out how this mess came to be."

I'd pay good money if it was an armored cavalry regiment that this equipment was for instead: "The U.S. already has the equipment for an armored brigade in Poland, Estonia and Latvia."

Russia's evil is easy to see with its kidnapping of children. Russia is essentially compelling Ukrainians to replace Russian combat casualties in its invasion of Ukraine. 

Is China carrying out subliminal expansion in the Yellow Sea? Are there any sea features that can be turned into islands, like in the South China Sea?

"Bad cop": "NATO chief Mark Rutte on Thursday warned allies to prepare for another world war, saying Europe is 'Russia’s next target.'" Rutte appears to get along with Trump. I think he's the flip side of Trump's "good cop" (contrary to bizarre claims that Trump is pro-Russia) to manage Putin.

Half the distance to the goal? "The United States has entered a new, even more intense phase in its pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The target now is crude oil, Caracas’ main source of income." 

Probably correct right now: "The world, in short, is bipolar. Many middle powers are influential actors within their regions, but only the United States and China exceed the great-power threshold." We passed the Era of Russian Decline. We'll see if other powerful states arise in the future, of course.

Seriously, how can the mullah regime survive this? "Iran is confronting an unprecedented water crisis. Rivers that have sustained settlements and agriculture for centuries are drying, while groundwater reserves are being extracted far beyond natural replenishment[.]" Iran is a rump empire, too. Will it fracture?

Huh: "Bulgaria’s government collapsed Thursday following a wave of youth-driven street protests over entrenched corruption and self-dealing elites widely seen as disconnected from the struggles of ordinary citizens." I hope this is progress and not something Russia can exploit. 

Endurance: "While maintaining political control, the Kremlin delegates substantial authority to lower tiers of government. This delegation is an important source of Russia’s flexibility in times of war against Ukraine." It is really feudal in nature. I was skeptical of the faith in decisive sanctions. 

Indeed: "The United States seized an oil tanker, Skipper, off the coast of Venezuela on December 10 that has illicitly transported Iranian oil. This seizure will likely increase Iran’s concerns that the United States and its allies may seize Iranian vessels to block Iranian oil exports." There are overlapping objectives, no?

SPOILER ALERT: Russian-crewed ships sent drone swarms over NATO bases. Tip to Instapundit. Digital camp followers, eh?

Chinese technology espionage in America: Texas edition. Tip to Instapundit.  

Remain calm. All is well! Even as Europeans import workers who don't assimilate the EU foresees robotics leading to unrest by unemployed workers. Tip to Instapundit.

Somebody recognizes that Russia is no help because it just wants to be paid to increase chaos: "Ivory Coast reportedly wants the US to station spy planes in the country to help it fight jihadists who have gained territory across much of West Africa in recent months." 

Ukraine attempts to get their troops uniformly better trained than the Russians. Also, when the war is over there needs to be massive rebuilding to incentivize all the Ukrainians--more than half the population--who fled abroad to return. Especially the young to make sure there is another generation to resist the Russians.

This is accurate: "The more accurate way to think about the separation between America and Europe is that Europe has moved anti-Western, rather than America becoming anti-European." I drone on about that on occasion. Especially note the difference in that quoted post between NATO and the EU.

Pumping iron: "One of South Korea's top shipbuilders is turning out new warships for the Philippines as Manila accelerates its naval modernization." The Philippines doesn't need to defeat China in a war--just be able to win a battle to defeat China's subliminal offensive in the South China Sea. 

This essay claims Europe's planned "drone wall" defies reality: "An army is a SYSTEM: C4ISR, logistics, infantry, artillery, intelligence, medicine, communications—all moving together." Yes! Don't throw panties at small drones. 

Some jihadis disapprove of the "tame" jihadi cooperation: "Two U.S. Army soldiers and a U.S. civilian who was serving as an interpreter were killed after shots were fired at U.S. and Syrian forces on a mission to a historic central town in Syria on Saturday[.]" The gunman's attitude may be widely shared. 

Putin counted on shielding people from the cost of war: "Russian civilians can no longer ignore the Ukraine War." Will the civilians react? Will corrupt security forces remain solid if they do?

Morale problems inside the Russian ground forces. Is this a sign of a looming crisis? Or just business as usual in the Russian ground forces?

I wish I could be confident that as a last resort the Navy will design and build a new destroyer competently. Ditto for a new frigate.

You can put lipstick on the pig, but the proto-imperial European Union is still bad for America--and for Europeans. 

Unless we are selling a stripped-down, much lower capability F-35, I absolutely oppose rewarding Erdogan's "soft" Islamist government before it changes course by selling it that plane. 

Resuming nuclear testing is a dangerous gamble for America? I suppose. But so is not testing to make sure simulations are validating warhead designs in the real world. Isn't having inert warheads a dangerous gamble? The idea that we should take Iran's concerns seriously is astounding.

This last week I'm now getting frequent hits from Chinese language searches hitting specific posts from around the world. Indicators suggest users bouncing their locations around. Is this an effort to get around China's Golden Shield that keeps out Western information?