Russia leans into its bluff that all is well in the three-week special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine prepares to enter the new year with the 4-year anniversary of the three-week special military operation looming. As the year ends, Russians are admitting that Ukraine has been successfully counter-attacking at Kupyansk and that Russia doesn't have the manpower to sustain broad offensives. Which again makes me doubt Russian claims of how many troops are really attacking Ukraine.
I'm certainly not the only one to repeatedly say that Russia has many problems their boastful confidence obscures. Yet many Americans, used to publicly claimed problems even when none exist, take the Russian claims of inevitable victory at face value.
The conclusion drawn by those Americans is that supporting Ukraine despite their fierce and effective resistance just gets more Ukrainians killed in a pointless losing war. Which is bizarre given the complaint from only a day ago (figuratively, in Afghanistan) that we are fools to support people who can't fight effectively. I'm getting strategic whiplash.
But I digress.
That level of lying is standard operating procedure for the Russians:
[Their blatant lies fuel] my utter frustration with the Russians for invading Ukraine and then standing there saying, "What? No, no. You are mistaken. We are not invading anyone. Why would you say that? Don't you like us? Are you plotting against us? In fact, you are invading. Why are you invading!?"
Russia's campaign of lying is completely separate from their method of aggression and would be done whether it is subversion, a subliminal invasion via little green men, or massed armor backed by air power.
I wrote that in September 2016.
So it is no shock that Putin in his end of 2025 address to his subjects claims Russia has no reason to compromise in the war:
Putin stated that Russia is ready and willing to end the war based on the principles he outlined during his June 2024 speech to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA). Putin used that speech to lay out his conditions to agree to a ceasefire and only then start negotiations: Ukraine’s complete withdrawal from all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Ukraine’s abandonment of its NATO membership aspirations. Putin stated in this 2024 speech that Russia’s “fundamental” position calls for Ukraine’s neutral status, demilitarization (the Russian demand for limits on the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself), and denazification (the Russian demand for the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government). Putin had also demanded that the international community enshrine its recognition of Russia’s annexation of the four oblasts and Crimea in international agreements and that the West lift all sanctions against Russia. Many of Putin’s June 2024 demands, which Putin reiterated on December 19, directly contradict the US-proposed 28-point peace plan and its subsequent iterations.
The inability to see the problems of the enemy--and yes, bizarrely enough, America is Russia's main enemy by their own acts and rhetoric--is a constant in history:
And American tendencies to amplify our own problems--while in one way a prod to fix actual problems--accentuates the inability to appreciate how much enemies can lie in order to fool us into giving up.
Russia is hurt. And while we may not appreciate it, it is also true that--and God help the Russian people--Putin may not know it. This is a problem:
The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 22 that two unspecified officials stated that Russian military and security authorities regularly give Putin updates that inflate Ukrainian battlefield casualties, highlight Russia’s resource advantages, and downplay tactical failures. FT reported that Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, is responsible for briefing Putin about the war. The sources reportedly stated that the “rosy picture” that military officials paint during their briefs has led Putin to believe that Russia can win the war. FT stated that the sources noted that Putin regularly meets with “confidants” who tell him that the war has become a “growing drag” on the Russian economy, however.
How do we negotiate with that? How do we send nuanced diplomatic signals into that fog of delusion?
Not to get my hopes up, but does Ukraine's ability to counter-attack locally seem more productive lately? Just asking for a friend.
Anyway, just who in the Kremlin will tell Putin he is effing up royally? Are a few economic confidants enough?
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
