I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy: Europe
In case you missed it on Substack: Put Tail Fins on the Old Model
In case you missed it on Substack: Creating Worries in the Sea of Japan
In case you missed it on Substack: Recon in a Persistent Recon Environment
Turmoil in Chad. I think the last time I paid attention to Chad was the Toyota War.
South Korea was once a consumer of Western security. Now it produces security for the West: "South Korea is the tenth largest weapons exporter worldwide." Admit it, we won the Korean War.
Good: "Jordan confirmed Saturday that its air force took part in strikes launched by the United States on Islamic State group targets in Syria in retaliation for the killing of three U.S. citizens earlier this month." But don't expect too much. Firepower from planes, hellicopters, and artillery won't destroy ISIL.
Temporary duty at Manta: "The U.S. military is sending a contingent of Air Force personnel to Ecuador in support of 'anti-drug trafficking' operations."
The LCS concept gets small and loses (if desired) its crew.
Russia rejected America's proposal. Europe affected prospects not a whit: "Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide says that changes made by European countries and Ukraine to the United States’s proposals for an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine do not improve the prospects for peace."
Reach out and touch somebody: "Sweden will soon have the capability to conduct deep strikes far behind enemy lines, as the Gripen will be integrated with the German-made Taurus cruise missile earlier than planned[.]" Ice, ice, baby.
Lukashenko: "Russia had deployed its latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to the country[.]" I doubt Russia risked putting actual nuclear warheads there.
Speed bumps: "European Union lawmakers want to remove internal barriers to the cross-border movement of troops and military equipment, allowing the forces of partners and allies such as the U.S. to move across the Continent faster in a crisis." If only the EU wanted to help rather than undermine NATO.
France wants a big, shiny, nuclear-powered, floating symbol of French power.
Ukraine produces cheap interceptor drones to counter suicide drones. Until these fighters are reusable, the prophecy is not quite fulfilled.
Can the Dark Ages return to the West? In part, this could spark a debate about whether the Dark Ages were really dark. But the point is that civilizations can decline. I think America is better able to resist and cope with that outcome. And I retain hope that a space frontier can replace what Columbus sparked.
America gets a "new" warship: "The U.S. Navy has brought its first Flight III Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer, the USS Jack H. Lucas, into service marking the beginning of the latest phase in by far the world’s oldest destroyer program." Please don't be the last warship America can design and build.
Exactly: "Some pundits have suggested that the fighting in Ukraine has proved that cannon artillery has little value on the modern battlefield. Those pundits are wrong." Cheap suicide drones emerged in a drone counter-measures vacuum and a shell shortage. The war has lasted long enough to reduce both factors.
Either Trump amazingly and rapidly solved all the economic and societal factors that previously were claimed by his opponents to be the cause of dismal military recruiting--or the solution was as simple as celebrating rather than demonizing the traditional base of recruits in America. Choose one explanation.
The Islamic State is back. That's what happens when you walk away from a fight against jihadis on a Mission from God. We left Afghanistan over four years ago. Imagine what the jihadis there are up to.
The Arab Spring has moved the center of power in the Arab world to Persian Gulf monarchies. True. But it has only been fifteen years. The Arab Spring ended the traditional alternatives of nationalist autocracy or mullah-based dictatorship. It will take time to build the hoped-for alternative of rule-of-law democracy.
Denmark and their colony Greenland warned America about taking over Greenland. Seriously? America's interest stated with hyperbole in keeping China out does not imply aggression against Greenland. Perhaps I should grant Denmark the same benefit of the doubt and assume they were really talking about China.
Is Iraq finally going to de-fang the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Force militias that rose up in the aftermath of ISIL's overrunning of Iraqi territory in 2014?
Russia's next space station will be built with the remnants of the International Space Station after the partners de-orbit their portions of the ISS. Good luck with that. Although I admit I wondered why we couldn't somehow use all that mass placed in orbit at a high cost.
Blowback from Chinese subliminal warfare: "This past year saw the U.K. and France carrier strike groups conduct Western Pacific deployments as other allied nations monitored milestones and movements of Chinese and North Korean forces."
Will capabilities follow? "A new White House new executive order, 'Ensuring American Space Superiority,' emphasizes space security as a high priority for President Donald Trump and underlines the Space Force’s role in not only defending U.S. assets, but also in the attack mission."
I remain confused about how Israel closing Army Radio--the radio station of the army of the government of Israel--is "a move that shutters one of Israel’s oldest media institutions at a time of mounting concerns over press freedom." I live in Bizarro World now.
Zelensky certainly doesn't act as if American diplomacy is betraying Ukraine: "'Overall, it looks quite solid at this stage,' the Ukrainian leader said of recent talks with U.S. officials[.]" Breathe, people.
Iran was unavailable for comment: "China and Russia have expressed support for Venezuela as it confronts a US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers[ and other pressure.]"
Russia tries to conquer Georgia from within, since it is too busy getting hammered in Ukraine to invade (again). America prevented the first invasion from succeeding.
Denmark and Europeans in general are getting their panties in a twist over Trump's repeated desire to own Greenland--a local-rule colony of Denmark. That's not the same as saying America will "seize" Greenland from Denmark. Just say "no" to the offer. And protect it from threats far more real than America.
The fruits of corruption: "As of a month ago, seven of the 49 countries in sub-Saharan Africa had their elected governments replaced by military rulers this year."
An Air Force F-15 was put back in service in under 12 hours with 3D-printed parts.
Is Canada building the wrong kind of army? I'm happy they are building an army. And while I have concerns, I quibble with the idea that we have a transparent battlefield. Every advance in gathering and moving information seems revolutionary--until it is a new normal and part of adapted operations.
Why America looks south: "The geopolitical logic is that greater economic growth in Latin America will reduce vulnerabilities in the Eastern Hemisphere and, in time, could moderate immigration to the United States. This would require greater political stability in certain Latin American countries."
Is America's military deployment--too much for blockading Venezuela but too little to occupy it--really directed at Cuba? The force level made me wonder. So I looked for weaker targets. Solving Cuba would be great. But I worry more about a Chinese than Russian presence. My thoughts on regional strategy.
Will the European Union exist in four years? Oh? Be still my heart. This take on U.S.-European relations is ridiculous. The EU already hates America and America is belatedly returning the favor. And without the EU, Europeans may again thrive with freedom and security.
Aim high--and faster: "New NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said he wants the agency to move faster on key programs such as Artemis but acknowledged he needs time to get up to speed on NASA’s activities." Tip to Instapundit.
Will any Venezuelan tanker be safe under these conditions? Interesting. I suppose the Chinese could flag them ... Tip to Instapundit.
Huh: "Pakistan’s military is tightening its grip on the country with sweeping legal changes that critics say are centralizing power in the hands of army chief Gen. Asim Munir." I'm not sure how much more the parasite can suck out of the host.
The U.S. has pumped up the deployment of special forces aircraft to Puerto Rico.
The Air Force is working on big, expensive drone "wingmen". Ten thousand cheap, small drones can't do what a single really capable drone can do. Vice versa applies, of course.
Perhaps America doesn't plan to invade Greenland, eh? "The United States cleared a potential sale of over $900 million in medium-range missiles to Denmark, an announcement that comes as President Donald Trump renews a push to take control of the country’s autonomous territory of Greenland."
America has rounded up regional help to pressure Maduro: "the US secured military deals with Paraguay, Ecuador, Peru and Trinidad and Tobago in the past week alone."
Affordable mass for the Air Force with air-to-air missile-armed UAVs.
China leads in new patents; America leads in the value of new patents. Add in the value of other Western countries and the West has triple the value of China.
Do or die time: "Huntington Ingalls Industries/HII ...is implementing new manufacturing methods to build everything except carriers and submarines, faster and cheaper [with] distributed shipbuilding. Portions of a warship hull and superstructure are built by different firms all over the country."
If the Marines want to be amphibious again rather than sub-par Navy anti-ship batteries, all is not lost.
Amazon front: On the Internet nobody software can tell you're a dog North Korean agent. Tip to Instapundit.
INDOPACOM is going to try out amphibious aircraft to see if that long-lost capability is still useful. Glad this concept is getting a test. Still not happy with a gelded Marine Corps. But an improvement is an improvement.
The rise of two potential strategic nuclear weapon foes is a challenge for America.
China's leadership wants "new quality combat forces" but China's reality is a speed bump: "Technological progress is undermined by ongoing issues within the People’s Liberation Army, such as corruption, political unreliability, and governance issues."
We may not be very interested in jihadi murderers. But jihadi murderers are very interested in us. Somalia is the gift that keeps on giving. When Bush 41 sent Marines into Somalia to cope with starvation, I knew gratitude would give way to the urge to murder us. First in Mogadishu and now at home.
A warning to Europe not to follow Lebanon's path. Parts of Europe are nearing a state-within-a-state status like Hezbollah. That's no fun but being a minority in your own country is worse.
Until Hezbollah is broken up in Lebanon, I have zero confidence that the terrorists won't re-infiltrate southern Lebanon: "Israel is reportedly considering a plan that outlines 'stringent conditions' for southern Lebanon in return for Israel 'forgoing military action,' according to Lebanese media."
This description of U.S.-led peace proposals to end the Winter War of 2022 doesn't portray America abandoning Ukraine, notwithstanding the near hysteria I've heard all year. Interests naturally develop between allies the longer a war goes on. I wonder more about Russia and China.
Rearming: "Israel is selling its Arrow 3 anti-missile missiles to Germany in a $4.6 billion deal. Germany will also receive the Green Pine radar. Germany eventually expects to have several Arrow batteries deployed along their eastern border to intercept Russian long range missiles."
America's version of Iran's cheap Shaded suicide UAV doesn't seem very cheap. A problem of being a wealthy country with higher labor costs? Perhaps volume will bring the cost down.
Israel continues to destroy tunnels and kill jihadi terrorists in Gaza where its troops stand.
In Russia, I'm sure "expecting" the war to end in 2026 is safer than saying they "want" the war to end: "The survey of 1,600 Russians aged 18 and above found that 55% believe what Moscow calls its 'special military operation' is nearing its end." Do they expect to win or lose?
Well that Saudi statement doesn't sound futile at all: "The kingdom remains hopeful that the public interest will prevail through ending the escalation by the Southern Transitional Council and the withdrawal of its forces from the two governorates in an urgent and orderly manner." Who will make the STC retreat?
I assume the defense pact has nuclear provisions. Decades ago I thought the deal was that the Saudis funded Pakistan's nuclear program and Pakistan would under certain conditions provide warheads for Saudi missiles purchased from China.
Huh: "President Trump announced Thursday that the US military hit ISIS terrorists in Nigeria targeting Christians with 'numerous' deadly airstrikes." Nigeria's government cooperated. Will it exploit the strikes? This is morally right. And supports the war on Islamist terror. But be careful about sliding back into R2P.
Iran's friction with Kurds inside the mullahs' rump empire sparked some fire.
The Ukraine lobby appeals to our heart and not our head? It is morally right. Sure, America has no interest to justify actively fighting Russia now. Interests diverge. We have an interest in keeping Russia as far east as possible. But as they move west our interest in fighting rises. When did the "right" get this way?
Sure, Trump could make military mistakes in 2026, including by leaning forward too much. But I do find this caution humorous coming alongside the criticism that the National Security Strategy doesn't even name potential enemies.
Iran's "King of Iraq" is the most dangerous man in Iraq. I guess the prior one, Moqtada al-Sadr, is downgraded.
The state of transformation in the Air Force (halted), the Marines (controversial), and Army (bizarrely non-controversial). Space Force is too new for this; and the Coast Guard is just happy to have budget attention.
Twenty-four years ago on December 26, 1991, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was dissolved. Rot in Hell, socialist bastards.
The Navy picked "a beach landing ship that the Marine Corps have long said is a vital component to its plan for a 21st Century island hopping campaign." Island hopping isolated and smashed enemy strongholds. What the Marines plan now is better called island scurrying. Bold move, Cotton ...
Turkey lacks the power to carry out Erdogan's imperial ambitions. The author notes that Turkey could destroy Assad's regime but it has not stabilized Syria after. How can Turkey aim at more distant horizons?
Is America losing its Thailand ally to China's influence? How will India react?
People forget these are victims of settler-colonialism: "On this Christmas Day, let us spare a thought for the plight of Middle Eastern Christians, arguably the most endangered religious minority in today’s world." The Middle East was once the heart of Christianity until Islam's conquest and ethnic cleansing.
I don't believe North Korea's large nuclear submarine will last long in a shooting war. It's not even that large for a SSBN.
Recalling the 1894 Sino-Japanese War. Does modern China think it can repeat Japan's signal victory? Or does it worry it is still the empire that lost to a modern Westernized state? If China believes both, Russia should beware.
Fingers crossed: "Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an immediate ceasefire following weeks of border clashes[.]"
Can Ukraine dominate the river? "Ukraine is expanding its uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attacks to hit Russian targets on the Dnipro River and its tributaries." I'll ask again: "I wonder if Ukraine's more capable USVs will be important for crossing the Dnipro River.
Russia: "Russian efforts to reform and upgrade their drone operations have paid off. This year Russia is sending nearly ten times the number of drones against Ukrainian targets than they did last year." Ground-based air defenses are insufficient for the new threat.
Russia exploits AI for their extensive online propaganda campaign.
Ukraine uses small drones in combined arms operations: "They are a key force multiplier for Ukraine, yet they assist Ukrainian forces in tandem with conventional infantry and armour tactics, evolved for the deadly Ukrainian battlefield." Yes. And expanded combined arms lessons for America will be different.
I missed this story about Venezuela's Margarita Island: "Hezbollah’s most important base of operations in the Western Hemisphere, strengthened by Iran’s growing footprint and the Maduro regime’s protection." Landing Marines there could support a number of objectives short of invasion and occupation.
