I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy Part.1: The foundation of interacting with the world to secure America
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy Part 2: The Western Hemisphere
In case you missed it on Substack: The Medium Brigade Has Huge ... Tracts of Adjectives
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy Part 3: Asia
Required reading on the Pentagon. I won't say it ratifies my thinking. I know far too little to say that. But it ratifies my refusal to believe hysterics by those who claim to know what is going on. But yeah: "Chaos can not be solved simply." It can only be deceptively described simply. So carry on. Tip to Instapundit.
My annual PSA for harried managers trying to plan a Christmas Party without calling it a Christmas Party. BEHOLD: The C.H.R.I.S.T.M.A.S. acronym. Eat your heart out Pentagon. And you're welcome. Also, let your little ones track Santa's mission with NORAD's help!
War on Terror very interested in us: "President Donald Trump said Saturday that “there will be very serious retaliation” after two U.S. service members and one American civilian were killed in an attack in Syria that the United States blames on the Islamic State group."
Neither China nor Russia seem interested in protecting Maduro's Venezuela.
Missed this: "The Guard traces its lineage to a Dec. 13, 1636, order from the Massachusetts Bay Colony’s General Court establishing three permanent militia regiments, the descendants of which are still active today in the Massachusetts Army National Guard and are the oldest components of the U.S. military."
Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2025-12-13/national-guard-birthday-2025-history-scrutiny-20070552.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes
Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2025-12-13/national-guard-birthday-2025-history-scrutiny-20070552.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes
Navy exploited a late game interception to take the lead and defeat Army. Tough ending to watch. Congratulations, Navy.
Welp, it's no longer "true Communism": "The Cuban economy is in freefall along with infrastructure and living standards. Most Cubans try to survive on a monthly salary of about $15. Nearly 90 percent of families live in extreme poverty."
In case the Russian fleet wants to sortie toward the G-I-UK Gap: "In September the USAF successfully operated with Norwegian forces in the Norwegian Sea to test the Quicksink maritime weapon system in a realistic combat situation." Or to the Arctic. Quicksink is a Dollar Store air-launched "torpedo".
North Korea is exploiting Russia's need for war support to modernize its conventional military. Well, a strategy of Kooks, Spooks, and Nukes was risky.
Huh: "A U.S. special operations team boarded a ship in the Indian Ocean last month and seized military-related articles headed to Iran from China, U.S. officials said[.]"
The Free World is at "peak disunity"? I'm old enough to remember that France pulled out of NATO's military command, Ostpolitik, Euro-Communism, Vietnam War divisions, and the anti-Theater Nuclear Weapons movement in Europe. We have some current time-centric thinking here, I believe.
When near, appear far: China's plan to quarantine Taiwan and avoid a shooting war.
Russia's subliminal war on Europe.
Do young Europeans want a United States of Europe? I'm skeptical this is a thing offline. Even if they do, that's not what they'll get.
Pressure or preparation? "The government of Trinidad and Tobago said Monday that it would allow the U.S. military access to its airports in coming weeks[.]" And for what, if the latter? The government did say its territory "would not be used as a launchpad to attack any other country."
Hanging together: "South Korea and Australia are offering to relieve Washington’s strained defense supplier network, as U.S. defense planners grapple with bottlenecks in munitions production."
The British invisible shield that maximized their air defense shield in the Battle of Britain. This is what I mean by taking air defense seriously again.
Subliminal war: "Manila rushed two patrol boats to protect fishermen in the South China Sea after a water cannon attack from Chinese cutters that left three injured in one of the most severe incidents at Sabina Shoal this year."
Russia fakes propaganda videos of Ukrainians surrendering. Is this just part of the mix or does it reflect Russian fears of their own troops? Their firehose of falsehood is always active.
Australia after Islamist anti-Jewish murder spree: Ready. Fire! Aim?
Insurrectionists: "Federal law enforcement officials said Monday that four members of a far-left anti-government group have been arrested and face charges for allegedly planning a series of bomb attacks across Southern California on New Year's Eve."
Blowback inside Russia: "After nearly four years of fighting in Ukraine, more Russian soldiers are reaching the end of their term of service and returning to Russia. Many of them are bringing their weapons home with them." Former criminal veterans use them. And others are sold to criminals who use them.
I'm old enough to remember when Nimitz was brand spanking new.
American arms left behind sustain the Taliban regime and support terrorists in Pakistan and other neighboring countries. Blowback on Pakistan is a bitch.
Translating Winter War of 2022 drone warfare lessons directly to the western Pacific isn't possible.
The narrative is false: "One of these [false narratives] which has taken hold among many since the humiliating end to the war in Afghanistan, is that the American military doesn’t win wars, or that it hasn’t since the end of World War II." Preaching to the TDR choir, he is. And then go to the Definitions Section.
Marine Force Design: "beneath the surface of innovative ideas, stand-in forces, distributed operations, and advanced platforms, there is a constant and often overlooked weakness: logistics." Preaching to the TDR choir.
America is an ally under suspicion ... by Europeans? Face it, when it comes to Europeans, America can't get its power and influence just right.
So America should leave eastern Syria? "The regional balance of power is now driven by Turkey, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, whose competing ambitions collectively prevent any single hegemon from dominating the Levant." That's a hope and not a strategy. Let's not repeat Obama's errors about Iraq.
Can American and allied forces prevent it from ranging over the western Pacific? China unveiled the CH-47 unmanned " long-range reconnaissance and target identification" stealth aircraft. That makes it harder to break their kill chain.
I have hope that America can assimilate second and third generations, but Europe can't: "Sharia has caused many problems when Moslem people, generally Arabs or Afghans, migrate to Western countries. Islam insists that sharia supersedes any local laws." But America must promote assimilation.
Icebreakers. Apparently the Arctic Sea isn't going to be ice-free year round any time soon.
I noted the break in the headlong rush to Marine Force Design by 2030. Will the Marines reverse course and use the aircraft they already have to contribute to the anti-ship mission? And don't forget the NECC.
Building Navy warships has problems that "stem from a series of interwoven, systemic issues within both the U.S. government and industry, as well as broader socioeconomic trends." Start with the Navy's inability to design and manage the building of a ship class.
When Air Force advocates celebrate the air power-as-silver-bullet purist Billy Mitchell, I worry. America needs a strong Air Force. But air power needs to support ground and sea power to be effective.
Oh FFS, this is a monumentally stupid comparison. What? The authors didn't want to note that upright bipeds are confronting Maduro--just like they did with Saddam?
This is what a tyranny's relentless suppression of dissent looks like.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Mossad Director David Barnea said on Tuesday that Iran 'has not abandoned its aspiration to destroy the State of Israel'[.]" Yet it needed to be said because too many Westerners would sign another bad nuclear deal.
If China can finally tap its oil shale resources to go from being the world's largest importer to being self-sufficient, that's significant. One, China needs Russia even less. Two, it's harder to blockade China to harm warmaking capacity. And three, would it turn traditionally land-focused China inland, away from the sea?
It's a target-rich environment: "The U.S. State Department said Clan del Golfo, which is based in Colombia, has been listed both as a foreign and a global terrorist group[.]"
South Korean contractors leaked details of Taiwan's new subs being built.
Russia disapproves: "Kazakhstan is moving ahead with a $1 billion plan to build NATO-standard artillery ammunition factories to reduce its reliance on Russian models[.]" But it's a prudent move for Kazakhstan.
Huh: "Congress wants to know why the Space Force needs a special operations component command, and wants answers before any taxpayer money is spent on creating it." The "why" is simple. Space troops will be few and well-trained. Money will be needed for SMOD!
CRS report to Congress on the defense industrial base.
Norway will help Ukraine restock its depleted S-300 air defense magazine. How is unclear.
Norway should absolutely look to the defense of their Arctic island territories.
Iran's military aid to Venezuela "includes fast-attack boats, anti-ship missiles, drones, and even a Hezbollah presence." How much of the hardware passes through Maduro to the Hezbollah New World empire?
Indeed: "It’s almost cliché but nonetheless true: The U.S. military’s AI-enabled platforms are only as good as their inputs." Yeah, the speed of FUBAR could be simply awesome.
The United States continues to mow the jihadi grass in Somalia. It's a de facto Lexington Rule case, eh? Will the pirates now get the drug smuggler treatment? Fingers crossed.
Venezuela is in the crosshairs. Sometimes the clues really are in plain sight, I guess.
Patriot gets a 360° firing capability: "The US Army is addressing one of Patriot’s most persistent shortcomings: its ability to engage threats outside a narrow forward arc."
Yes, Venezuela's military is poor yet would be tough to pacify. But I can't imagine America plans occupation or even sustained air/missile strikes. Related thoughts on American ground combat capabilities.
Are Turkey and the Syrian government it installed going to go after the Kurds in northern Syria?
Sure, the North Korea-Russia alliance could fade as their wartime romance fades. China exerts a tremendous pull on North Korea and Russia. But for Russia and North Korea, there could be safety in numbers.
Resolve Theater: Venezuela has ordered its navy to escort oil tankers. But not sanctioned tankers so far.
What will China do when America ignores the order? "China told the United States on Thursday to "immediately stop" arming Taiwan after Washington had approved the sale of $11 billion of weapons to the island." Despite hysteria, American policy is clearly not stepping aside to let China capture Taiwan.
Will escalating American pressure on Venezuela inspire a coup against Maduro? And if so, will Venezuela have hope for getting better? Success would weaken Hezbollah and Iran in Latin America; and weaken Cuba.
The war on drugs continues to be kinetic in the eastern Pacific.
Good, but I doubt if the Russian fleet will make it far enough west for the Danes to use their new shore-based anti-ship missiles.
Details on the large American arms package for Taiwan that got China's panties in a twist.
China built a prototype for a new hybrid-electric 2-man main battle tank.
Ukraine has a new surface drone: "Ukrainian naval drones have revolutionized naval warfare that takes place within a few hundred kilometers of a coastline." At that range, a country with a more complete military have missile options for that sort of thing?
A Navy LCS launched a low-cost LUCAS suicide drone (that looks like Iranian Shaded drones) from its flight deck. This is good for platform flexibility and cheapness, but a single launch doesn't add mass.
The National Security Strategy barely mentions jihadi terrorism. First, thanks for spoiling the rest of the document as I read and comment. We have bigger problems in the big picture. We still mow jihadi grass in Somalia. Wait for the national military strategy. Also, Trump downgraded Africa? That ship sailed.
Advocating a theater Joint Task Force in INDOPACOM for warfighting responsibilities. If China manages a bolt from the blue, we'll want that already in place.
America has a tradition that started in the Revolution of eventually creating a lethal military despite initial unpreparedness. Since the Korean War we've been much better prepared initially. Could America match the historical record of innovation in this era? Would it be soon enough to matter?
Should the United States bypass Britain to secure our base rights at Diego Garcia? I'm not eager to undermine Britain. But the idea is intriguing and I'd like to sign up for the newsletter.
China is not on the brink of matching American submarine warfare capabilities. That's reassuring. Because the alternative is disturbing.
Why Central Asia matters to America again. Perhaps. But I'm not eager to plunge in.
I certainly hope that police and security forces are ready if something on the terror front is brewing in the West . Tip to Instapundit.
Should Russia be resisted or accommodated? The author seems to think as I do that Russia needs to be resisted to force Moscow to accommodates us.
If Putin is confident about Russia, he doesn't know the truth. And if Putin knows, his costly war on Ukraine is bizarre. As a famous man once said, continuing this war is worse than wrong. It is a mistake.
Lie back and think of international maritime law?
It would be nice if we who are the enemies of the mullahs are doing more than hoping: "In the wake of the Israel–Iran war in June, all the signs point to a regime in Tehran that is nearing collapse."
While Britain needs a stronger military, including its navy, I think this analysis over-states Russia's naval capabilities. Sustaining in combat what Britain has is surely a short-term priority over numbers.
Ukraine hit one of Putin's shadow tankers off the coast of Libya.
The Houthi are apparently preparing a ground offensive in Yemen.
Hello, Turkey: "Senior officials from Israel, Greece, and Cyprus are discussing the possibility of establishing a rapid-response force composed of units from the armed forces of the three countries[.]" Reaction to Turkey's ambition is growing.
Thailand and Cambodia aren't at war--but they sure aren't at peace.
The United States hit ISIL hard in Syria in retaliation for the killing of three Americans on an outreach mission in central Syria: "Roughly 70 targets were hit in the operation, the two US officials said." Perhaps regular grass mowing is needed there.
Huh: "Last month the Russian Defense Ministry discovered that they did not have enough cash to pay all the soldiers or provide money to induce civilians to join the army." Russia is attempting to pay for guns and butter.
Configure with care: "The U.S. Navy has confirmed its decision to acquire a new FF(X) frigate with a design based on the U.S. Coast Guard’s Legend class National Security Cutter, though there are immediate questions about its expected configuration."
Are Japan and South Korea going to heal their relations (based on a brutal Japanese colonial rule of Korea) to focus on the China threat to both? That's long been an American goal.
The U.S. Coast Guard seized another sanctioned Venezuelan tanker. Keep in mind that Venezuela is only escorting its unsanctioned tankers--and not all the way to their customer, of course.
The U.S. and its allies are leaning forward: "The U.S. Navy has become more active in helping the Philippines block China from taking areas of the South China Sea that are legally Filipino. They patrol a bit more and cast mean looks towards China."
Yes, this is an American advantage: "Done well, immigration expands the talent networks that drive startups, AI, biotech, advanced manufacturing, and military capacity—preserving strategic depth for a decades-long rivalry." But note the qualifier: "Done well ..."
From the "Well, Duh" files: "U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his aims of capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire[.]" I maintain Trump's charm offensive is ultimately trying to "flip" Russia.
Paris has a "New Year's" problem. France's solution is to cancel the celebration. The Battle of Tours 2.0 is lost. Belgrade and Tokyo have joined Paris. My pucker factor is up for New York City.
