I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: First Step to POLARCOM?
In case you missed it on Substack: Sink the PLAN and give the PLA Ground Forces a Dieppe Welcome
In case you missed it on Substack: Red Teaming a Taiwan Invasion
In case you missed it on Substack: ZAPAD-2025 and Russian Reliance on Nuclear Weapons [Huzzah! This is my 500th post on Substack.]
The Battle of Britain is privatized: "British patriots have established a 'task force' in France dedicated to locating 'migrant rubber dinghies' and slashing them before they can launch." Tip to Instapundit. What did I just note last week about what happens when government doesn't defend its people?
Goodbye 2nd SFAB: "An Army brigade that specializes in training foreign troops [in Africa and the Middle East] was inactivated this week[.]" SFABs were created when Special Forces were committed to direct action against Islamist terrorists. Will Special Forces resume their training missions?
Two U.S. Air Force F-35 squadrons deployed to Britain are now fully operational.
Is the Lebanese army displacing Hezbollah? Or doing housekeeping until Hezbollah returns?
Russia's drone games accelerates NATO capabilities: "The Netherlands plans to cobble together an air-defense system by fitting a remote-controlled weapon system on wheeled armor to provide its infantry units with mobile anti-drone capacity[.]" Strategery.
Swedish fighter planes intercepted Russian Backfire bombers and Su-35 fighters over the Black Sea.
Japan will buy missiles designed for anti-landing craft use to defend their islands. The missiles are useful for killing tanks, too. Good.
The last one pre-dates joining NATO? "Finland has released a new Arctic security strategy[.]" Will America give the region some organizational love?
Lithuania really wants American troops to remain: "Lithuania will cover all the costs associated with hosting U.S. troops in the country[.]"
I assumed the anonymous report of a double-tap strike on a drug boat were resistance fan fiction, and so it seems to be. Tip to Instapundit. Now do past drone strikes on American citizens. Mind you, outside our jurisdiction I have no problem killing even Americans who wage war on America. But there are limits.
Longer-range drones will be able to threaten lines of supply to the frontline troops. But will the more expensive aerial drones be as numerous? Will armies restore air defense units to their former prominence? I can totally see UGV logistics and air defense units battling the UAVs.
UGV casualty evacuation for Ukrainian soldiers is better than nothing--but kiss the Golden Hour standard goodbye. There's no way to meet even a properly interpreted standard in large-scale war. We need battlefield alternatives.
Ukraine suffers heavily from desertion. I hope most return to duty after a bit. Otherwise that is crippling.
Was the Afghan former ally who ambushed National Guard troops in Washington, D.C., radicalized in America? Damning, if true. While facing the Taliban he had no problem fighting them. Once here he was infected with anti-American hate. Perhaps we need to coin the term "Americaphobia".
Is it true America can't build a surface Navy now? If so, dealing with China that mass produces surface warships might rely on my concern being true.
Huh: "Russia has suffered a failed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test after a launch at the Yasny range in the Orenburg region ended in an explosion only seconds after liftoff." Exception? Or the rule?
I wouldn't quite say that neither NATO/Ukraine nor Russia are "willing--or able--to force a decisive end[.]" Both believe/hope that inflicting pain will eventually force the other side to collapse or give up trying. Can Putin seize enough ground to justify the casualties when more casualties are needed to take it?
This is a warning about sending "signals" to foes: "Biden’s unfortunate remark that a 'minor' Russian invasion might not invoke a U.S. response did not help [deter Putin in 2022]." Perhaps Putin defined "minor" as "brief." Oops.
You silly Yanks who need your written list of rights! Oh ... Tip to Instapundit.
If the EU stayed out of the America-led NATO defense lane, this wouldn't be a problem: "Even when it comes to its own security, the EU struggles to be a central player." It never lets a crisis go to waste, eh?
American energy sanctions on Russia are weakening the lingering links to Bulgaria and Serbia. I expect sanctions to weaken over time as ways around them are built.
China's modernized hardware makes its military look good. But it has problems that hollow it out. How much is the question, and would it matter depending on the target. But yes, I've long known it isn't as good as its shiny image portrays.
More relevant is whether Hamas can be forced to loosen their grip.
Oh well. Sucks to be in month 45 of the brutal special military operation you launched. Tip to Instapundit.
The enemy of our enemy is at best our frenemy: "The US military, in conjunction with Syrian forces, has announced the destruction of 15 Islamic State weapons caches in southern Syria."
This is BS: "After World War II, Germany embraced pacifism as a form of atonement. Now the country is arming itself again." The West Germans were excellent in the Cold War. The East Germans were never pacifists. And limited German rearmament will take a long time--if it happens. I'll wait to praise too much.
Sh*t got ... hmmm ... in the Caribbean.
High-altitude heroism above the Houthi.
Could a summit between South Korea and North Korea establish a real ceasefire rather than be a ploy by the North to weaken South Korea's defenses? Interesting. That would work well with an alternate path for stronger North Korean ties with Moscow in a new Russian security alignment to contain China.
Chinese aid to Russia is restrained but vital. If Russia wins the war, China can demand much given the power imbalance between China and Russia. But the benefits named require that Russia conquers Ukraine and that the West doesn't spirit out Ukrainian blueprints, scientists, and technicians.
Is Russia India's best friend? No. But Russia could be the enemy of India's enemy. A relationship that could benefit America and NATO.
Another entry in the "Let the Wookie win" foreign policy genre.
The Internet: Putin can't live with it. Can't shoot it on the street.
High-altitude heroism above the Houthi.
When United States Navy aircraft attacked the Japanese battleship Yamato in April 1945 in several waves, at no time did the attacks with bombs and torpedoes get suspended to help rescue sailors from the crippled ship. It was struck until it capsized, sank, and exploded--in that order.
Gaining power did not moderate the Taliban: "the world learned a familiar lesson: movements built on rigid ideology do not moderate simply because diplomats hope they will." What?? Who could possibly have predicted that outcome?
True peace is hard: Southeast Asia edition.
Canada seeks to diversify its defense away from America to the European Union. This is a strategic tantrum done knowing that America will spare Canada from consequences--the EU won't protect Canada--by defending Canada (to defend America) even if the sulky teenager doesn't clean its room.
Is China effing up or deliberately seeking justification for attacking Taiwan? "A diplomatic spat between China and Japan over Taiwan is escalating into a regional showdown, forcing smaller Asian nations to pick sides." America's role is to herd the cats.
A sad era of Navy shipbuilding comes to a truncated end: "Cleveland is the 16th and final ship of its class, marking the completion of the Freedom-variant littoral combat ship (LCS) construction phases[.]" The singing of praises frankly nauseates me.
The momentum of Force Design continues to change the Marine Corps. Welp.
Friends in a dangerous neighborhood: "Officials from U.S Central Command (CENTCOM) and the Kingdom of Bahrain opened a new bilateral Combined Command Post for air defense[.]"
Once, pacifist Japan did not sell weapons. China has changed that with a proposal to sell air defense missiles to the Philippines.
A lot of illegal fishing is conducted: "Overseas Development Institute identifies China’s [Distant Water Fishing] fleet to be five to eight times larger than previous estimates, with 16,966 vessels." On the other hand, a wartime blockade of China will be a problem for the Chinese Communist Party.
Russia can put an air-to-air missile on a Shahed suicide drone. Why not a reusable drone?
WTF? "Typhoon jets will be deploying to the Arctic later this month for what is intended to be a secret escort mission involving a cargo aircraft."
Strategy: "Britain can expand its long term influence in the Indo-Pacific by using its alliances, training strengths and regulatory expertise[.]" Britain is torn between a pivot to Asia and renewed Russian aggression in Europe.
I bet this African effort to establish colonialism as a crime and get reparations won't cover the Islamic Arab conquest of large areas or the massive use of African slaves in the Arab Islamic world.
Before World War II, our effort wasn't enough: "[American] armed forces are rebuilding island bases from World War II, reviving old units in allied countries, and fortifying important bases." As I've long asked.
China is building more air and sea bases across from Taiwan. Tip to OPFOR Journal. As I've noted, China doesn't need a large fleet of big amphibious warfare ships to invade Taiwan when China itself is a massive amphibious warfare platform 100 miles away.
I sure hope they can be updated by the time they are used: "The Pentagon plans to purchase more than 200,000 industry-made drones by 2027 — with forthcoming orders for 30,000 of those unmanned assets to be delivered by July 2026 — via its new Drone Dominance Program."
I have no problem killing drug smugglers in international waters. This is potentially a problem: "President Trump said Tuesday his administration could attack accused drug traffickers who traverse Latin America by land 'very soon'". A solution? But what is the mission?
Taiwan has a "$1 billion project that aims to procure up to 1,350 sea drones for coastal defense purposes against a potential Chinese invasion." I'm not saying they can't be useful. I'm just saying USVs are hyped as silver bullet wonder weapons.
Putin boasts he is ready for war with Europe. Maybe he is. But his military is not. Chest beating and flinging poo is SOP.
Arrow 3 south of Berlin: "Germany’s first long-range missile shield will enter service in an initial configuration on Wednesday[.]"
While Russia harasses NATO with balloons and small drones, NATO prepares to scrape Russia's exclave flat if necessary: "A Royal Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint has carried out an intelligence-gathering orbit around Kaliningrad." If Russia goes to war with NATO, Kaliningrad is NATO's first offensive mission.
Teaming up conventional warships with small USVs and UUVs. I think blue water slaved USVs could be external magazines for manned warships.
Entry-level small drone production is safer than manufacturing mortar bombs in your garage, eh?
Recruiting is broadly good but military retention has pockets of problems: "Critical experts in cyber, AI, and logistics are leaving for the private sector, with officer attrition rates in the Air Force skyrocketing 350-550% above the national average." I bet a warrant officer path rather than to officers would help.
The coast guards of Japan and China are throwing elbows around Japan-administered territory. Beats the gray hulls hammering each other.
Russia sent Tu-160 strategic bombers to patrol the Arctic.
America isn't bullying India any more than India doing what suits them--and not America--is bullying America. But what really annoys me about articles like this is the complete lack of agency they give India. Everybody reacts to what America does--or doesn't do--and bear no responsibility for their actions. WTF?
This report doesn't make any sense at all. Why would we? Not saying it can't be true ... But there must be more to it. Are we expressing displeasure at suppressing freedom of speech there?
Good! "Now, as the world’s superpowers flex their muscles in a warming Arctic, the tiny town of Churchill, on Hudson Bay’s western shore, seems poised to play an outsize role as Canada prepares to move aggressively into one of the newest global arenas." Don't stink on ice there.
Fair: "Ukraine is trapped between the neo-imperial aggression of Russia and the posturing impotence of the Europeans." Europe calls America unreliable for not doing what Europe won't do to protect Europe. As I said, if there is a ceasefire the Europeans will be outwardly angry at America but quietly relieved.
Is the Latin American Left--including Maduro--collapsing? If so, I'm jealous.
If it is true that the Afghanistan Taliban threatened to murder the family of the shooter who shot (murdering one) National Guard members in Washington, D.C., I would expect the Taliban to get a midnight visit by stealth bombers. Tip to Instapundit. But I'll tag this as RUMINT for the moment.
I'm suspicious of stories sourced to "people familiar with" an issue. Maybe it is true. But lesson learned, no? And why did the Biden administration approve use of Signal? Honestly, the broad campaign against Hegseth seems politically motivated.
The U.S. sent a "clone" of the Iranian Shahed-136 suicide drone to the Middle East. But is the "Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS)" kamikaze drone really low cost? Or is the gold plating going to get out of hand?
I'll assume that is good: "The National Reconnaissance Office is seeing 'great output' from its constellation of proliferated low-Earth orbit satellites and is working with the Space Force and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to operationalize the capability[.]"
Are Republicans more supportive of Ukraine, NATO, and being strong abroad? If so, I fully expect Democrats to reverse course and reject Ukraine, NATO, and being strong abroad.
I advised exactly this rather than directly retaliating against Russia: "One way to make Russia pay for acts of sabotage in Europe is to intensify military support for Ukraine, NATO’s top official said Wednesday following a meeting of top alliance diplomats."
LOL! News from February 2022: "Putin told India Today TV that he planned to seize control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region by force[.]"
More on China's mysterious trimaran semisubmersible craft: "In terms of its purpose, one of the most persistent theories is that it’s an arsenal ship." I've noted its potential role--if the theory is right--in an invasion of Taiwan. And I've separately discussed an external "magazine" for Navy warships.
Syria's new Islamist rulers seek better relations with America; and they restored relationships with the Russians, letting them keep their bases. I wonder if part of the deal with Russia involves Assad having a fatal accidental fall out of a second-floor window. The Islamists may do no better than Assad did.
I suspect this judgment about the shameful Congressional "disobey orders" video is right: "a juvenile, stupid, and transparent attempt at scoring political points against an administration they don’t like and have decided to resist at all costs. But there is no federal law against stupid and juvenile political stunts."
I'm not sure what the AC-130 gunship provides in the Caribbean Sea that armed drones don't provide. Over land it requires a permissive air environment.
Russia and maybe China actually are conducting low-level nuclear tests: "As early as 2009, the bipartisan Strategic Posture Commission’s report stated that apparently 'Russia and possibly China are conducting low yield tests.'" I guess that was too inconvenient to publicize. We really need to test our new warhead.
I wonder if Trump's pardon of ex-Honduran president Hernandez was the price to get seriously good information about Maduro. Doesn't really make sense, otherwise.
The U.S. is upgrading the U.S. Coast Guard, including for the Arctic and INDOPACOM regions.
Practice makes perfect ... : "China is deploying a large number of naval and coast guard vessels across East Asian waters, at one point more than 100, in the largest maritime show of force to date, according to four sources and intelligence reports reviewed by Reuters." ... for what?
I will highlight that "while Western observers were surprised by Putin’s willingness to sustain high levels of casualties to continue prosecution of the war in Ukraine, strategists should in fact have been surprised aggression did not occur sooner." I wasn't surprised Putin is willing. I was surprised Russians go along.
Was this article written six months ago? Iran may be on a Mission from God--and the mullah regime is dangerous as long as it exists--but I don't think the mullahs are confident He's actively helping at this moment.
Europe has declined as a global power for 150 years, with the linkage of European to American power obscuring that. I've noted the decline, but what obscured Europe's decline has been the fact that it is still a major objective to be fought over even as its relative power declines. America is a faux crisis for the EU.
They had the option of surrendering: "The IDF said that troops killed over 40 Hamas terrorists who were in tunnels below Rafah in southern Gaza, in an area now under Israeli control."
Putin's Mini-Me has been troublesome: "Poland is prolonging the exclusion zone along its 400-kilometre eastern border with Belarus by another three months up to March 5 next year[.]"
Next in line? "The prospect of a conflict in the Arctic is rising, Denmark’s Arctic commander has warned, with the expectation of Russia turning its attention to the High North if and when the Ukraine war ends." Could be.
Good: "The UK and Norway have signed a defence pact that will see them operate a combined fleet to hunt Russian submarines in the North Atlantic."
I'm calling BS on this: "The United States has positioned military assets that could potentially support an invasion of Venezuela[.]" The assets are overkill for drug boats. Completely inadequate for an invasion. And perhaps just right for something in between. Against someone. But the map is nice:
No "kill them all" order. Honestly, we saw efforts to push the war on jihadi terrorists into a law enforcement template. We are seeing the same now.
Oh? "Legal experts aren’t buying explanations for the U.S. military’s strikes on alleged drug-runners at sea ... " I'm no legal expert, but historically I think the issue is more nuanced than those "legal experts" say it is. Seriously, recall the Obama administration mental gymnastics on Libya.
Bounce the rubble: "NATO has released an updated maritime strategy that will shape Allied naval posture, capability development and readiness across the Euro Atlantic region[.]" I'm not worried about the Russians at sea. The problem area is ground power early in a war, as I worried about in Army magazine.
As if the Sainted International Community® cares about Sudan!
Venezuela is in our sights. Is Venezuela the target? Or is China--seeking to weaken us via Latin America--the target and Venezuela is just the battlefield: "Communist China was and remains the world's primary source of fentanyl." If so, Hezbollah could still be a secondary objective.
Whenever Putin speaks I want to give Ukraine tactical nukes: "Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to his original war aims from 2021 and 2022 and unwillingness to compromise during an interview with Indian media[.]" I wouldn't. But I'd really want to.
The Dutch built a large fleet oiler: "Other ships of the Netherlands Navy include three submarines, six frigates, four ocean going patrol vessels, two LPD amphibious ships, one Joint Support Ship, 17 landing craft, three mine hunters and about fifty smaller craft." If you wonder why.
Axis of Weasels: "There is a new hostile alliance, or Axis of Evil as some politicians like to call it. The new axis consists of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea." Hmm. But I readily concede the World War II Axis was loosely aligned, too. China has territorial ambitions. But it benefits from the global system.
Sure, adaptivity and agility in the Army acquisition process for air defense would help. But I fear it seeks those qualities for silver bullet solutions. Get back to Army air defense basics as the foundation.
Brief thoughts on Marine Force Design changes. Will they undo the damage done?
Are drug smugglers who kill Americans repeating the demand of treating jihadis like criminals: "While this American missile raises the bar on avoiding collateral damage, I worry the spinning-blades AGM-114R9X Hellfire is one step from the 'read them their rights and cuff them' Hellfire."
The new National Security Strategy of the United States. I'll need to read that.
Face it, Europe is on the path to not being worth the bones of a single West Virginian grenadier. Europeans with a contracting military horizon--it was a nice five-century run--need to do more to defend themselves and--as Vance reminded them--be free countries worthy of American help.
Do not become confused (to quote an old drill sergeant) as this author is, Ukraine is fighting its own war against Russia. We should help Ukraine win. But thinking NATO is really at war with Russia is a slippery slope to general war; and actually supports Putin's propaganda.
Of course he is: "French President Emmanuel Macron is courting China as a prospective peacemaker in Ukraine after privately voicing concern that the U.S. will 'betray' Kyiv." Macron seeks to [ ... checks notes for latest reason ...] exploit the Bad Orange Man to get our of Dodge Paris while he can.
Maduro is an illegitimate ruler. He has wrecked his country. And he has dispatched dangerous criminals to America in a form of warfare. Be he shows no sign of buckling under American pressure to just go any more than Assad showed when Obama told him to go. Turkey made Assad go. Who makes Maduro go?
Can Russia continue their war by drafting young men from the St.Petersburg-Moscow core of Russia after depleting their "deplorable" minorities and rural people?
Lasers are the weapon of tomorrow, but will they every be the weapon of today? Fog and smoke interfere with them. And how expensive would it be to put ablative material on the anti-ship missiles or drones coming in hot? But although slow drone speed will make them more vulnerable, numbers may prevail.
The Navy has settled on a new ship that it will use to send anti-ship Marines to where they can die. Winning! Seriously, the Marines are screwed.
China seemingly wants a lot more nukes. But don't assume they would all be aimed at America.
Germany needs America to rearm more rapidly: "Decades of low expenditure have left the Bundeswehr in a parlous condition. Its land forces are only at 50 percent readiness, and ...at one point in 2018 only four of the Luftwaffe’s 128 Eurofighter Typhoons were combat-ready... ." The German Question is unanswered.
I don't mind India buying Russian weapons to deploy against China. But this is a problem: "The Kremlin appears to be increasingly leaning on India to alleviate domestic labor shortages and is setting conditions for India to support drone production for Russia’s war effort." Is India onboard Russia's Plan B?
Won't disagree: "Latin America is heading in a bad direction, and taming the threat emanating from Venezuela could head off the region's slide." The region is crucial. But not with a land war. Just wonder what our military objective is. Is hitting Hezbollah and cartels lethal to Maduro? Tip to Instapundit.
Hamas still endures inside Gaza. Finish it off if its members won't surrender.
I assumed that this would happen (just as Iraqi Baathists organized after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003): "Former senior Assad regime officials are likely funding and equipping clandestine networks in Syria to conduct insurgent activity against the Syrian transitional government." Will Alawites fight?
My statistics package now allows paying customers to include AI hits in their statistics report. I am a lower grade free customer so I can't do that. But it does imply that I will no longer be swamped by what I assumed were millions of AI hits in the recent past on my stats reports.
