For a long time, Pokrovsk has been the central focus of Russia's offensive effort. With the small city all but captured, Russia is looking beyond--well beyond--that city in ways that don't reflect the importance of the victory.
Russia hasn't fully taken Pokrovsk (and nearby Mynohrad) yet. But unless Ukraine has a significant reserve that is being well concealed to counter-attack significantly as at Kupyansk, the city is basically lost:
Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not yet seized Pokrovsk, but the situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will very likely seize Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but will take more time and suffer more casualties to do so.
Russia wants everyone to think this is significant--and overlook the time and casualties it took to advance to the city--and means Russia can call the shots in the post-war settlement:
The Kremlin is setting information conditions to reject any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine by threatening Europe.
For how Ukraine is governed:
The Kremlin preemptively rejected the legitimacy of any future Ukrainian government that it does not directly control in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent statements that he is ready to hold elections before the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
And for doing anything other than finishing off Ukraine:
The Kremlin once again rejected the Ukrainian-proposed ceasefire on energy infrastructure strikes and signaled Russia’s commitment to destroying the Ukrainian power grid in the winter months.
Does Putin believe he is all powerful? Do Europeans believe that? Do Putin's troops believe that?
I hope that America's indirect military aid continues and that America's direct support in intelligence continues to bolster growing European efforts to provide Ukraine with the means to defeat Russia's invasion. Ukraine's successful local counter-attack at Kupyansk demonstrates Ukrainians are very much in the fight:
Ukrainian 2nd Khartiya Corps reported on December 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack to stabilize the situation in the Kupyansk direction and liberated Kindrashivka and Radkivka (both north of Kupyansk) and the surrounding forests, liberated areas in northern Kupyansk, and broke through to the Oskil River, cutting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to the Kupyansk area. The Ukrainian 2nd Corps stated that Ukrainian forces have encircled roughly 200 Russian personnel in Kupyansk as of December 12.
America may not have the same interest in sacrificing to stop the Russians so far east of the Elbe River Cold War front compared to the Europeans. But my view is that America is safer when Russia is farther east.
I have long hoped Ukraine's counter-attack that punished over-extended Russian troops at Kupyansk would be routine. The scale of the victory in terms of Russian losses in unclear.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
