It is reputed to be a Chinese curse to get what you wish for. America has finally convinced Europe to arm itself against the revived Russian threat. There's a dark lining to that silver cloud.
America and Russia got Europe to rearm. Russian threats to invade and American threats to watch Russia invade worked.
But ... :
Growing European power means the era of comfortable U.S. leadership is over. Now that it provides more for itself, Europe will feel less pressure to defer to Washington’s interests.
That's the thing, as I've warned about repeatedly. You can't lead real power from behind:
Please tell me our foreign policy isn't to have the Europeans arm up and expect them to fight to defend America. That didn't work out so well in the first half of the 20th century. It was folly when Obama proposed it. And it is folly now. ...
Europe could defend itself. With time. By design it doesn't without America to knit together atomized European capabilities. We should of course want stronger European--but not EU--military power within America-led NATO. We must not indulge in a reboot of "leading from behind" that pretends other countries will fight for American interests without consequences[.]
And with Europeans agreeing to defense spending targets and Trump joining America's NATO allies in reaffirming Article V, it doesn't look like America will walk away. The risk of Europeans using their new military power for their objectives and not American objectives is still there. But with America in NATO, there is less chance of surprises.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. You know you want to.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Which is not letting me make new images that I can access. But some old ones can still be mined. Fingers crossed.
