How is it possible that the Navy is failing in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to carry out a mission as basic as holding open a vital sea corridor? Against a force as weak as the Houthi? What does this say about it keeping lines of supply open to Taiwan against China? Or supplying our Marines scattered around the western Pacific with anti-ship missiles?
We won the Battle of the Atlantic faster than this:
This week marks the eighth month of the U.S. Navy’s combat operations against Houthi forces in Yemen.
We're clearly losing this campaign:
Comparative data from Marine Traffic suggests that the Houthi attacks have led to a 79.6 percent drop in drybulk carriers going through the Suez Canal in June 2024 versus June 2023.
That's inconceivable, you say! Well, no:
Despite months of U.S.-led airstrikes against Yemen’s Houthi fighters, the once ragtag rebels have continued to threaten some of the world’s most vital shipping routes, drawing from an arsenal of increasingly advanced weapons to attack vessels in and around the Red Sea. ...
The recent uptick in Houthi activity has underscored the group’s ability to pose a sustained threat, relying in part on a steady flow of Iranian arms and expertise both to withstand U.S. strikes and remain on the attack.
So Iran sustains the Houthi naval offensive? And so our lengthy efforts are just Resolve Theater?
What is our major malfunction? Oh.
But maybe America wants more help from European and regional allies affected by the Iranian Houthi campaign. Maybe we just don't want to do 95% of the job. Maybe we are doing the minimum to incentivize those countries to step up for join in a real fight.
Because if this is a matter of Navy weakness rather than a choice from diplomacy--either bizarre or understandable--how will we possibly get the supplies through an opponent like China?
An era of great power competition requires far greater resources to project more power and revives the need to protect the logistics effort.
And if so, sorry, Marines. You're effed.
UPDATE: Confidence:
The Pentagon said Monday it remains confident that it will be able to respond to ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea after a Navy aircraft carrier strike group departed the region and it was unclear when another carrier group might arrive.
A possible attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Monday targeted a ship further away from nearly all of the previous assaults they’ve launched in the Gulf of Aden, officials said, potentially part of a widening escalation by the group.
We're reducing our capabilities and our enemy is increasing their capabilities.
At this rate we'll soon be reassuring New Yorkers that we will be able to respond to Houthi attacks on shipping off the Atlantic coast.
UPDATE: More nuanced minds than mine need to explain this strategery:
On the one hand, the Biden administration refuses to get serious about the Houthi pirates disrupting Red Sea global shipping with missiles and direct attacks. On the other hand, Biden is helping Iran keep the Houthi well-funded and well-supplied with its lame oil sanctions.
Helping friends and hurting enemies should be Foreign Policy 101, no? As I wrote some time ago:
What is it with the strain of conventional wisdom holders in our foreign policy establishment that holds that the height of diplomatic triumph is brokering a deal that saves our enemies rather than defeats them?
UPDATE: Water levels in Panama and potential dock worker strikes contribute, but we may have a new supply chain problem looming (tip to Instapundit):
As Houthi rebels intensify strikes on vessels headed for the Suez Canal, global shipping prices are soaring, raising fears of product shortages and delays.
Ah, Smart Diplomacy® in action!
UPDATE: We carry out Resolve Theater, but (tip to Instapundit) we know how to defeat the Houthi anti-shipping campaign:
People, empires, and technology may change, but the formula is the same; kill the pirates, destroy their weapons, eliminate their bases, take their money, starve what’s left.
But we aren't doing that. Why?
Oh, right. Lions led by donkeys.
See also my more recent post on anti-ship USVs and UAVs.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
