Unless we can do something to derail the train building steam for a March 16th Crimea referendum, subsequent Russian annexation, and Russian troop sortie from Sevastopol and Kerch to lock down their conquest, Crimea is going to be lost to Russia for a long time.
What next for Putin?
The Russian government tells the world that the Russian-speaking people of Ukraine need to be protected. The de facto annexation of Crimea has occurred. A logical and necessary step from Putin’s point of view. After all, more than 58 percent of the Crimean population is Russian. Are eastern Ukraine and northern Kazakhstan, with their large percentage of Russians, next? This is, on the whole, unlikely. However, it can no longer be excluded, in particular regarding eastern Ukraine.
It would have to be a pretty blatant invasion since I think Russia is losing their chance to claim to be rescuing ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine hoping for Putin's help.
But that still leaves Kazakhstan. Personally, I'd like to see Russia focused on Kazakhstan even if it results in Moscow taking territory from that post-Soviet state. Heck, Kazakhstan might be more willing to join up with Russia in a voluntary association.
Why do I want Russia aimed at Central Asia? Because Russia spends a lot of time railing about the mythical NATO threat to Russia while China builds up their power across Russia's vast land border.
If Russia moves into Kazakhstan as we leave our Central Asian bases after our drawdown from the Afghanistan War, China will not be happy, and that could prompt further competition between China and Russia for influence in the region.
That compels China to divide their power and attention from the Pacific to include Central Asia; and it compels Russia to face real threats to their security from China rather than seek a buffer zone against a Western threat that just isn't likely.
We have to make Russia pay penalties for taking Crimea. I'd like Russia to pay penalties for taking chunks of Kazakhstan, too. And maybe making targets in the West too hard to take, Russia will look to other parts of their border for new territorial additions and provoke a Chinese reaction.
UPDATE: Kazakhstan has always seemed like more of a willing partner than a victim of Putin's ambitions. But even they may have worries about Putin given the pretext for Russia's invasion of Crimea and Kazakhstan's own demographics. Their president spoke to President Obama on March 10th:
The White House said Obama encouraged Nazarbaev to play an active role in finding a peaceful outcome, amid the occupation of Crimea by Russian forces.
It said the two leaders agreed on the importance of upholding principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. ...
According to the Kazakh presidential website, Nazarbaev reiterated to Merkel the importance of finding a diplomatic solution while ensuring Ukraine's territorial integrity.
In his call with Putin, Nazarbaev's website said he expressed support for Russia's position in defending the rights of national minorities in Ukraine.
Nazarbaev is not exactly a rock of resistance. But he did not show up in Moscow on the 11th as expected:
According to a release from the Kremlin's press service on March 10, Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev was supposed to make an unexpected visit to Moscow on March 10 and 11. Russian news agency ITAR-TASS reported early March 10, "Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev will pay an official two-day visit to Russia on an invitation from his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Monday, the Kremlin said in a statement." The statement continued, "Putin and Nazarbaev are expected to hold talks on Tuesday."
But Nazarbaev never showed up and the Kazakh president's press spokesman Yerzhan Nukezhanov told RFE/RL's Kazakh Service, Azattyq, on March 11 Nazarbaev had no plans to go to Moscow and this information was distributed by the Russian president's administration.
Huh. I guess Nazarbaev didn't want to catch Putin's eye at this moment.
Given our withdrawal from the region, I expect the Kazakh president will show up--on time--in Peking one day soon.
