I went from anticipating a Russian invasion of Ukraine to going back to my standby mode of waiting to see what the Russians plan to do. This news from the day before reinforces my standby mode:
A new classified intelligence assessment concludes it is more likely than previously thought that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine, CNN has learned. ...
The buildup is seen to be reminiscent of Moscow’s military moves before it went into Chechnya and Georgia in both numbers of units and their capabilities.
U.S. military and intelligence officials have briefed Congress on the assessment.
So what of the Russian troop deployments?
American officials believe the more than 30,000 Russian forces on the border with Ukraine, combined with additional Russian forces placed on alert and mobilized to move, give Russian President Vladimir Putin the ability to rapidly move into Ukraine without the United States being able to predict it when it happens.
What the additional forces are is important. But with 30,000, operations in just eastern Ukraine seem most likely.
I'm not sure what to make of this:
The United States believes that Russia might decide to go into eastern Ukraine to establish a land bridge into Crimea.
The belief is that Russian forces would move toward three Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk in order to establish land access into Crimea. Russian forces are currently positioned in and around Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod, according to U.S. intelligence information.
Again with the deep drive theory. But taking Kharkov, Luhansk, and Donetsk does not create a land bridge to Crimea. All those locations are in eastern Ukraine and consistent with just slicing off the eastern industrial area.
The Ukrainian cities are in the east and marked with orange.
The Russian cities of Kursk, Belgograd, and Rostov are--north to south--noted as red dots off of the Ukraine map in the blue area to the east. Those locations are consistent with my routes of advance to Crimea (just start the southern thrust further south from Rostov rather than along the major road that I projected).
But 30,000 troops aren't enough to go all the way to Crimea or Transdniestria if the Ukrainians effectively resist. Russia had half of that amount just for the invasion of Georgia--which had to pull back due to casualties and difficulties. So unless the Russians expect round two to be just as uncontested as round one in Crimea, doing more than occupying those three Ukrainian cities in the east, and then stopping, is too much to expect of Russia's military.
Knowing what is on alert and where would be helpful. I'm assuming that refers to airborne and Spetsnaz units. Those could be well away from the border and still used in an invasion, of course.
And Russia has fresh troops in Crimea, now, of course.
Also, the Russians have direct access to Crimea now via Kerch Strait ferries. The Russians have already said they will go ahead with building a bridge to span that strait. And nobody is threatening Russian control of the Black Sea to contest resupply by sea. So if the reason for Russia invading Ukraine (again) is a land bridge, that's just a pretext to take more land.
The main point of the intelligence is that the invasion could kick off any time a political decision is made rather than needing to wait for the Russian military to get ready.
