MH370 Still a Mystery

So what happened to Malaysian Flight 370?

I know I set out a fanciful scenario. Mostly it was an exercise in connecting dots. If I was paid to think about such things, I'd ponder worst case scenarios.

What sets me apart from conspiracy theorists is that I don't assume plausible connections are real connections. And the dots might not exist. I'd use the worst case scenario to check the dots and connections to see if there is actual evidence to justify the scenario.

There are lots of scenarios out there.

To me, it doesn't make sense to be a plot to capture the plane for future use. Reselling the plane or parts is nonsense given the publicity given to a plane that disappears. And the more than 200 passengers and crew are kind of a nuisance for a plane theft, no?

Nor does it make sense to be a plot by terrorists to steal a plane to turn it into a flying bomb. Again, that's high profile. And lots of passengers and crew. You'd have to use the plane fast to make use of it.

Besides, with all the fuel on board, it already is a flying bomb. Why land to add explosives?

Sure, you might have lots of human shields to put on the plane to make a target country either hesitate long enough to allow the plane to strike a target--or force the target country to shoot down a plane filled with civilians and hopefully demoralize the civilized world.

But you could kidnap people for that without including them in the package, no?

You don't need a modern 777 for a suicide mission.

And why not just buy a plane if you want a flying bomb? Especially if you want a dirty bomb or something especially Devilish, why not do it with a purchased plane where you can take your time to prepare the special mission? 

Or if the mission was just to crash a plane filled with civilians, it would have been done quickly after the hijacking before anyone could react and shoot it down.

It seems as if the mostly likely explanations are that the plane really did suffer a mechanical problem that sent it off to crash in the sea, and experts are seeing and connecting dots that aren't there or are being explained incorrectly.

Or the the pilot or co-pilot was suicidal and wanted to kill himself, sadly taking a plane full of people with him. He flew south into the Indian Ocean and the plane (and souls) are on the bottom of the sea.

Or the pilot went north, perhaps changing his mind about suicide, and wanted to make a statement on the ground somewhere. But somebody shot him down and that country doesn't want to admit it.

Heck, maybe it was an accident with lots of things going bad at once against the odds, and the pilot and flight crew were heroically trying to save the plane and people aboard--but failed.

But if it was terrorism related, because of what I thought didn't make sense from a terrorist point of view (with all due respect that I'm not a terrorist so not capable of thinking like them enough to figure this out), my guess is that the purpose of the hijacking was for the cargo on board.

And what cargo would justify such a high profile theft? My guess was a North Korean nuke on the way to Iran.

Which if true would at least mean that the Iranians would probably hold the crew and passengers safely until the warheads were securely mounted on Iranian missiles with plenty of decoy missiles and air defense sites to protect them, and then release them unharmed.

However unlikely (and yes it is fanciful with no evidence, relying on speculation and a good imagination), if it is terrorism based (including state-sponsored as this would be), this is the only thing that makes sense to me.

If I had to bet, I'd say bizarre accident or suicidal pilot. With a small but significant chance it was shot down in error, as a result of an accident or regretted suicide attempt.

But if MH370 really was hijacked, I wouldn't be shocked if this was a nuclear warhead transport mission.

Anyway. That's my reasoning.

UPDATE: A description of one of my two most likely scenarios--accident (and heroic attempt to save the plane sub-scenario). Tip to Instapundit.