As one astute Russian commentator has noted, the most important lines in Putin’s annexation speech this week were largely overlooked: his reference to the fifth columnists and the Western-funded Russian “traitors” who will now have to be silenced. Putin invaded Crimea because Putin needs a war. In a time of slower growth, and with a more restive middle class, he may need some more wars too. This time, it’s really not about us.
One, I have to agree with the idea that this was about Putin and not about us. That's why I didn't blame President Obama's foreign policy for the invasion. There was surely some effect on Putin's thinking that he could get away with this. But there is no cause and effect. His thinking easily could have told him that American weakness would override even a President Obama who looks fearsome in a tank turret and has never been photographed riding a bike.
I've defended American policy from the "why do they hate us?" crowd that justifies every foreign crime and outrage against us by blaming our actions or inactions, and I won't change my view of how other nations act--they do not hang on our every word or deed, preparing to calibrate their foreign policies accordingly.
Two, I disagree strongly that Putin wanted a war over Crimea. As I've also been droning on about even before this latest crisis, Russia's military is weak. Putin has a lot of nukes, some very good special forces, and enough conventional military power to pound a small enemy. Russia is not a great power militarily.
So, no, Putin did not want a war for Crimea. What he wanted was a pageant for Crimea.
Ukraine's decision not to fight for Crimea granted Putin a pageant in which the glorious Red Army reborn returned frightened Russians in another land under threat by fascists back to Mother Russia.
The Crimean Subliminal War wasn't about us. Hell, it wasn't even about Crimeans.
UPDATE: As long as we're talking pageants, it seems appropriate that The Onion weighs in with a letter from Putin:
It’s certainly no easy task to forcefully annex an entire province against another country’s will, so I just wanted to thank you—the government of the United States, the nations of western Europe, and really the entire world population as a whole—for being super cool about all of this.
Seriously, you guys have been amazing. All of you. I really appreciate it.
To be honest, I was really dreading a whole big fight over this thing. When you first condemned the seizure of Crimea as patently illegal and in breach of the Ukrainian constitution—which it absolutely was, by the way—I feared for the worst. But then everybody stopped short of doing anything to actually prevent what was essentially a state-sponsored landgrab, and I just thought, “Wow, these guys are a pretty laid-back and easygoing bunch!” It really was a huge load off when you let everything slide like that.
Yeah, we're super cool that way.
