We still don't know if this is a Crimea Crisis or a broader Ukraine crisis. I think Putin would bite off more than his military can handle if he tries to take over eastern Ukraine. But his judgment may differ from mine--rightly or wrongly.
If Putin thinks he is on a roll and he decides to make a play for eastern Ukraine, too, my basic reasoning for a Ukrainian response to an invasion in this pre-invasion post holds:
Ukrainians need to avoid fighting in the east because the damage and casualties might lead locals to look to the Russians to protect them and might change sentiments from political opposition to separatism.
If the Russians want to fight in the east, make the Russians move west and extend their supply lines and deplete their forces as they leave garrisons in their wake.
And make their claims of fraternal assistance to ethnic Russians obviously a fraud.
If Russia annexes Crimea, the Ukrainians should focus their military efforts on driving the Russians from that peninsula, or at least besieging the Russians in Sevastopol.
Again, I'd burn planes, ships, and surface-to-surface missiles to damage Russian ships and facilities in Sevastopol.
And if they can manage it, the Ukrainians should go after Transdniester with reserve troops to get a bargaining chip.
In the east, Ukraine should attempt non-violent resistance in the cities and attempt to harass the Russian supply lines. If Ukraine's special forces types can do it, they need to be active out there.
We can help with military assistance that helps piece together the weapons that Ukraine has now. It's good we will help the Ukrainians, but we need to do more than this level of help:
The Pentagon said on Thursday it was focusing for now on Ukrainian requests for non-lethal support, as opposed to any weaponry, as a senior U.S. official said Washington wanted to avoid further militarizing the standoff with Russia.
I don't think we need to send heavy weapons, but night vision gear, logistics help, ammunition, communications gear, and maintenance help would all put the gear Ukraine has into the field. Big stuff like armor or aircraft takes years to incorporate into their military anyway, so is useless in the short run.
If Russia expands the crisis, Ukraine needs the ability to take the initiative in at least the Crimea front. And if we can sustain Ukrainian resistance, Russia's rickety armed forces will have more chances to fail in action and erase any image of military prowess that Putin wants to portray to the world.
And to end the expanded crisis, I'd offer to end any conflict based on Russia controlling Sevastopol only and the base there.
UPDATE: The Russians aren't acting like this crisis is over or limited to Crimea:
U.S. intelligence officials now say Russia’s Spetsnaz are expanding into eastern and southern Ukraine, as well. The intelligence report from February assessed that Russian provocateurs would look to instigate low-level street brawls or “skirmishes” in eastern and southern Ukraine. The report also predicted that Russia’s shadow warriors would seek to pay off Ukrainians to attend pro-Russian rallies and in general fan the flames of separatism. And since then, eyewitnesses say, that’s exactly what’s happened. ...
“This is the use of deniable special operators under GRU control to create provocations and really these are quasi-deniable operations,” added John Schindler, a retired NSA counter-intelligence officer and specialist in Russian affairs who now teaches at the U.S. Naval War College.
We can see what happens when the Spetsnaz have time--they organize and lead local pro-Russian militias to lead the invasion, as they did in Crimea.
So Ukraine had best be fighting this shadow war to win.
