It looks like there are 25,000 Russian troops across eastern Ukraine's border ready to invade plus 25,000 Russian troops in Crimea that could also invade from their new positions.
Additional troops--I assume paratroopers and Spetsnaz--are deeper in Russia but capable of being airlifted into action.
Significantly, the Russians have set up the logistics to sustain an offensive.
I still don't think the Russians have a lot of troops available for an invasion.
The Crimean-based Russian troops are only really useful to support a deep drive that would establish overland lines of communication between Russia and Crimea.
If the Russians just want to seize eastern Ukraine, the Crimea-based troops aren't likely to leave Crimea. Maybe 6,000 airlifted in early in the Crimea invasion could be airlifted back to the main front, but that's about it. Russia has to hold what they already stole.
With 25-30,000 troops in the east, Russia has enough to occupy some cities in the east, between Kharkov and Donetsk. Then add in Interior Ministry troops to help hold the region.
Does Putin really think he can just march into Ukraine and seize more land without having to fight? He might be right, but I doubt it.
If the Russians push any deeper, the Ukrainians will have the opportunity to fight.
And the Russians will have longer supply lines through potentially hostile territory to defend.
And the Ukrainians could push irregulars back into the area Russia "controls" thinly with their few troops in a large area. Guerrilla warfare could develop.
I know that everyone seems to be talking about Putin as Stalin reborn with a new Red Army massed to do his bidding while foes tremble before him. But Putin's army just isn't worthy of that reputation.
I just don't think Putin has the horses to successfully pull off more than a quick road march against little opposition into eastern Ukraine. Trying to take more ground or being forced to fight for eastern Ukraine just risk the military reputation he built on the nearly bloodless take-over of Crimea.
UPDATE: Is Russia signaling that they want to cash in their chips and go home?
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, speaking on Russian television, reinforced a message from President Vladimir Putin that Russia would settle - at least for now - for control over Crimea despite massing thousands of troops near Ukraine's eastern border. "We have absolutely no intention of - or interest in - crossing Ukraine's borders," Lavrov said.
On the question of whether Russia has no intention of invading or has no capability to escalate and count on an easy win, I lean to the latter.
But Russian smart diplomacy could get concessions from Kerry based on our belief that Russia has the capability but is willing to abandon the intent if we make the right offers.
Truly, Kerry himself is the flexibility that President Obama promised Medvedev that Russia would get from us after the November 2012 elections.
UPDATE: Oh, God! Bust out the umbrella for the peace for our time speech:
Flying from Riyadh to Shannon, Ireland, for a refueling stop on Saturday, Kerry decided to turn his plane around and was traveling to Paris for a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov scheduled for Sunday evening. Kerry spoke to Lavrov on the flight after President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in a call on Friday to have their foreign ministers meet to discuss a possible diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine situation.
This will work out just great.
