Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Ukraine Needs to Fight for Crimea

I said it before and I'll say it again, allowing Russia to take Crimea with their subliminal invasion is a mistake. Ukraine needs to fight even if they lose. Otherwise they lose credibility for regaining their lost province. And make it easy for Putin to believe he can do the exact same thing again in eastern Ukraine or perhaps Odessa.

Putin's defense of his takeover of Russia includes this amazing justification:

Putin said Russian forces in Crimea had taken great care to avoid any bloodshed, contrasting it with NATO's 1999 campaign to drive Serbian forces out of Kosovo. Reinforcements had remained within the treaty limit of 25,000 troops in the area, he said.

He's using the fact that his troops were able to move into Crimea to take over the area without having to defeat Ukrainian troops as evidence that, what? That the invasion doesn't count?

The point of an invasion is to take land. Putin took land. The fact that he didn't have to fight for the land is a stain on Ukraine, quite honestly.

Although being in the midst of a revolution that overthrew the corrupt lackey of Putin does give the Ukrainians an excuse for not being able to react quickly with armed force.

But Ukraine must have an idea of what force it can use, now.

Ukraine needs to fight for Crimea to establish their reputation for not just rolling over and taking this violation of their territorial integrity. Putin needs to believe he will not get a free ride.

This is a start:

A defense ministry order issued after the incident said: "In connection with the death of a Ukrainian serviceman...Ukrainian troops in Crimea have been allowed to use weapons to defend and protect the lives of Ukrainian servicemen."

And while the Russians are told their outposts in Crimea will resist and fight to hold their ground, Ukraine should attempt a counter-subliminal invasion of Crimea (which we can help) to deny Russia a cheap victory. If Putin isn't as ruthless as he'd like us to believe, Ukraine might roll back the Russian invasion at least a bit.

And if Russia shoots first? Shoot back. And use every surface-to-surface missile they have in their arsenal, burn every aircraft they can arm and put in the air, and risk every ship they have if it can open fire, to hit Russia's fleet at Sevastopol (or on blockade duty elsewhere) and the base facilities there. Inflict a price on Russia's military.

Remember, Russia's armed forces aren't very good. They are surely superior to Ukraine's military, but forcing Russia to win ugly--denying Russia "style points" as a great power is expected to win against a minor power--will pay dividend for Ukraine far beyond the price they will pay if Russia decides to fight and kill for Crimea.

Ukraine needs to fight for Crimea--even if they lose--and do it soon before those Ukrainian outposts are gradually eliminated with pressure and occasional violence to demoralize the defenders until they desert or surrender a little at a time.

Oh, and don't forget to bill Russia for Crimea.