Sunday, March 16, 2014

Putting the War on Hold?

Ukraine says they and Russia have agreed to a 5-day ceasefire in Crimea. Why?

I'm not sure what the point of this ceasefire is:

Ukraine's acting defense minister, Ihor Tenyukh, says Russia has agreed on a truce in Crimea until March 21.

What's the point? Russia isn't shooting. And doesn't the ceasefire leave Russians in position at their toehold in Ukraine at Strilkovye?

The head of Strilkove's village council, Oleksandr Ponomarev, told journalists later that a Russian assault force initially had landed on the outskirts of the village by mistake before advancing to the gas-pumping stations.

That's interesting. Oops. The Russians landed at the village by mistake and then went over to take the objective. This explains confused reporting that made it unclear if the Russians retreated or held their objective. They didn't retreat. They just went to the wrong place and then corrected their mistake.

And why would Russia wait until March 21st? This seems like a gift to Ukrainian resistance:

Tenyukh said that under a five-day-truce, Russia has promised that "no measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea" until March 21.

He said Ukrainian military facilities on the peninsula are "therefore proceeding with a replenishment of reserves."

Really? The Ukrainians are believing promise number four about keeping Crimea (for now)?

Allowing the Ukrainian garrisons five days to build up reserves (I assume that means gather supplies) just means the garrisons can hold out longer, absent a direct assault.

Either the Russians need five days to get ready (are the fake demonstrations in Kharkov and Donetsk taking longer to organize?) or the Russians want the Crimea garrisons to let down their guard and even expose portions of the garrisons going out for supplies.

I don't assume there is any ceasefire in Russia's mind. Is Putin really going to grant Nazis five days to slaughter ethnic Russians around Ukraine?