I recently read that Ukraine's military has figured it has just 6,000 effective Army troops. I assume that means two brigades. That article also mentions that they managed to mobilize just over 40,000 troops out of what I thought was closer to 70,000. So the military apparently didn't emerge intact from the fall of the Yanukovich government.
Mind you, I think that Ukraine can use much of their ground power to defend cities and static points. I assume the 6,000 figure is for units that could maneuver and fight as coordinated units. So Russia would face resistance if they invade.
And I think that if the Ukrainians stuck in Crimea are armed and ready to resist, they could wage enough of a fight to deny Putin the image of a swift takeover that he'd surely love to have. But I don't know if these support troops have the morale and leadership to do more than hold their ground until Russians approach locked and loaded.
But that news about effective ground troops (sorry, I lost the link) explains why the new government is recruiting a new force--called the National Guard--that they can be sure is at least loyal. That's pretty standard, I think, for revolutions. You may need the old military for its skills but you may not trust it enough to leave it with a monopoly on military power.
Anyway, the Ukrainian military appears to be far weaker than it is on paper. Which means the Russians, with what appears to be a couple airborne regiments, a naval infantry regiment, and an infantry regiment of what I assume is the Interior Ministry, already in Crimea supporting Russian special forces and contract irregulars bolstering local militias, has enough manpower to secure the Crimean peninsula.
They can complete the conquest as soon as the March 16th referendum is completed, Russia formally annexes the territory within hours if not minutes of that request, and Putin sets H-Hour for the forces at Sevastopol and poised at Kerch to fan out in Crimea and seal the base of the peninsula leading north.
So what's with this Russian exercise?
The Defense Ministry said units of the 98th Guards Airborne Division, based in Ivanovo, a city east of Moscow, were put on high alert and moved to unspecified locations to “check readiness” in simulated combat conditions.
Four thousand troops, 36 military transport aircraft and an unspecified number of combat vehicles are taking part in the exercises, which will run until March 14.
The drills will include a massive simultaneous paradrop involving 3,500 servicemen, the ministry said.
Why bother with an airborne drop when Russia already has the points of access to Crimea secured? Russia has the key airports, road junctures, and Kerch under control. And they have Ukrainian support troops (and a small force of Ukrainian naval infantry) besieged in their bases in Crimea, unable to interfere. Russia does not need to conduct an air drop on Crimea.
Unless Russia just wants style points to enhance the takeover, why parachute into Crimea? If Russia needs more troops, why not cross at Kerch or fly into secured airfields in Crimea?
If Russia truly intends to invade eastern Ukraine, too, just cross the border with Russia, why drop from the sky? Russia would need as many of its effective military for an operation in eastern Ukraine rather than add to the overkill in Crimea. In that case, it would be better to airlift those troops into an airfield in Russia and road march into eastern Ukraine.
Obviously, the air drop practice doesn't have to mean the Russians plan to drop them from the air when they are ordered into action.
It's possible these troops are intended to go to Russia's Transdniester outpost on Ukraine's western border, just in case Ukraine decides their limited military power that can be put in the field would be better used grabbing a bargaining chip than in contesting Russia in Crimea. Having troops with the capacity to drop in case airfields aren't secured initially would be quite handy.
Or they could simply be the lead element to seize another airport objective entirely in order to airlift the rest of the division in. If Russia could handle such a big job, I'd think the Russians would drop on Kiev and reinforce with an airlift to the captured airfield, while troops from their Western Military District advance overland to link up with the airborne assault.
I know Russia wants all of Ukraine. One day. I didn't think that Russia's military--which, like Ukraine's, is also far weaker than on paper (and spread out over a continent-sized country)--could really handle a big invasion. Yes, Russia is making a significant effort to make more of their ground forces effective:
Russian Army leaders have most definitely gotten serious about training. Not just for the paratroopers and commandos, who always had, or managed to get, the fuel, ammo and other resources needed to train, but all combat units, especially those containing a lot of conscripts (who these days only serve for a year). ...
To back all this up the senior leadership is conducting a much larger number of unannounced inspections and dismissing commanders whose units fail or are not able to fix in a timely manner problems uncovered during the inspections.
Have the Russians really made progress in combating their many weaknesses? Or does Putin just believe his military has made progress in combating their many weaknesses?
The answer to that question would be relevant only to the outcome of a larger objective than Crimea and not to the question of whether Putin will order a bigger operation than securing Crimea.
Just how cautious is Putin?
