The Real Worst Case Scenario

Opponents of striking Iran's nuclear facilities like to preen that only the opponents of such an option are facing the worst case scenario of what Iran will do in response. They say that proponents of striking Iran are simplistic and blindly assume a best case scenario of a quick, clean strike that Iran simply absorbs without fighting back.

I assume no such thing. Never have.

Iran will likely fight back.

Which means our strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would need to be part of a multi-pronged and bigger strike that itself is part of a bigger plan to destroy the mullah regime.

I assume these things because I don't believe the worst case scenario is that Iran fights back. Opponents of striking Iran like to ask what will we do if Iran fights back, as if that is the trump card in the debate.

We can defeat Iran if they fight back. The Iranians beat their chest and flings poo to scare us. But they aren't strong enough to defeat us. Yes, they can fight back. By all means assume they do fight back. And they can hurt us if they do fight. But they can't beat us unless we fold at the first setback.

No, I assume that if we strike Iran that we are fully at war and must win that war. But then, I think Iran has been at war with us for more than three decades now and we just won't admit it.

I assume that the real worst case scenario is that we do nothing (pretending it doesn't matter or bizarrely pretending that striking Iran would be the cause of Iran going nuclear) and Iran goes nuclear. I'd rather avoid a war to stop Iran from going nuclear. But I'd rather go to war than let Iran go nuclear. Actually, my worst case scenario is that we think we have time to make sure force is the true last resort and that Iran is taking that calculation into consideration.

Really, people, which side isn't facing the real worst case scenario? Those who want to prevent Iran from going nuclear or those who refuse to contemplate war to stop Iran from going nuclear?

Oh, and just for laughs, don't the sophisticated and nuanced opponents of striking Iran understand that we aren't the only ones who have to decide what the worst case scenario of Iran's nuclear ambitions is? And Israel's job is a little easier now that we are out of Iraq.

Have a nice day.

UPDATE: Thanks to Stones Cry Out for the link.