Calderon's goal is laudable but so difficult. It will take years to achieve. However, time is something he doesn't have. 2012 is an election year in Mexico, and Calderon cannot succeed himself. He needs a follow-on reform president with guts and vision.
The cartels may not want to replace the political order like a terrorist or political insurgent movements, but they do seek to subvert it. No, Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel commanders don't have a rigid ideological orthodoxy, but they do have an idea of what constitutes politically favorable conditions for their operations: a weak government with corrupt cops, bought judges and a defanged military focused on parades. Add frightened reporters, since the bribed cops won't protect them, and you've got a drug lord Reconquista of Mexico, a return to the worst dinosaurio days of the Institutional Revolutionary Party.
He also notes that while the drug gangs use the tools of terrorism (military-grade weapons and beheadings) to complement their use of bribery, blackmail, and death threats, the drug gangs are not like terrorists in that the gangs have a profit motive rather than a prophet motive. This looks like war but it is different.
Mexico is making progress. but this year's election isn't the only threat to defeating the drug gangs. My fear is that the use by Mexico of the relatively uncorrupted military in the struggle (to bypass corrupted--by bribery, blackmail, and death threats--local police and judges) will result in the military becoming a corrupted institution. If the Mexican drug lords can buy time, they'll be able to buy troops, too.
Oh, and this is a lesson to countries that tolerate thugs on their own soil, with the justification that it is a problem for others only. Years ago, Mexicans refused to address the drug gangs because it was "an American problem" and not a Mexican problem. The problem was drug demand from America and why should Mexico suffer casualties to go after drug gangs in Mexico? Besides, lots of dollars flowed south into Mexico. Too bad for Americans. But ignoring the drug gangs led them to be a threat to the Mexican government. Now it is a Mexican problem.
And for Americans, don't think that this is just a Mexican problem. Violence spills over into America and over time, Mexican drug lords will spill over to battle for control of the distribution network inside America and undermine our border agents, cops, and judges to look the other way. The gangs have a profit margin and vertical integration from producer to retail sale is one method of increasing profits. Plus, it may be safer for drug gangs to live in America if the fight in Mexico gets too hot.
We have an interest in Mexico's victory in this "war."
