Saturday, February 18, 2012

In For a Penny

China is building a force of large amphibious warfare vessels (071 class) that can each land and support a battalion of troops:

These LPDs are 210 meter (689 foot) long, 20,000 ton amphibious ships with a flight deck for up to four helicopters and a well in the rear for landing craft. It normally carries four hovercraft in the well and two smaller landing craft suspended on davits. The ship can carry up to 800 troops (500 are more common) and up to 20 armored vehicles.

The Chinese have two, with a third nearing completion, and a fourth on order. All four could land a brigade's worth of troops but for a Taiwan invasion scenario, I don't think traditional amphibious warfare vessels are the weapon of choice given the scale of the task.

The ships fit with the Chinese plans for the South China Sea where small islands would be the target.

Since Taiwan and the South China Sea are considered "core interests" of China, for which war is an option to resolve the interest in China's favor, I'd expect China to hit the key islands of the South China Sea while they invade Taiwan if it becomes quickly clear that America will intervene on Taiwan's side. (If we stand down, China might prefer to let post-conquest diplomacy and fear work their magic on attitude adjustment of small nations that think they can rely on America.) The world will either be angry or cowed by the Chinese invasion of Taiwan (which one may depend on what we do), so why not get the core interests out of the way all at once regardless of the world reaction?

Actually, if I was a really ambitious despot, I'd try to solve the Tibet core interest too shortly after the dust settles on Taiwan if I successfully grab the island and deter an American counter-invasion.

Not that China's efforts regarding the South China Sea will naturally succeed just because Peking considers them a core interest. Vietnam is buying submarines from Russia. The Philippines is negotiating with America to host American forces on training missions. Singapore will host one of our new Littoral Combat Ships (and I assume more will follow). And Australia is going to host an American Marine Expeditionary Unit in northwest Australia. Oh, and Australia's defense plans include building forces capable of power projection. Austalia is small so to be significant, the objectives have to be bite-sized rather than continental in scope. Like small islands, for example.

So while the Chinese consider the South China Sea to be their sea, nations surrounding the South China Sea on three sides disagree strongly.