Is the Oil Market Working?

This post notes that there seems to be a disconnect between the supply and demand of oil, as prices continue to rise while retail deliveries dive. The purpose of the post is political rather than foreign policy, but it raises the question of why the apparent disconnect?

Granted, global demand is what counts and our deliveries aren't the only component of demand. But surely our demand is a major part of the global total.

What if there is no disconnect? What if the dive in retail deliveries here simply doesn't consider the demand of non-retail deliveries? What if nations and companies are buying oil for petroleum reserves in anticipation that America and/or Israel will strike Iran's nuclear facilities this year and lead to a short-term crisis of oil production and transport through the Strait of Hormuz? What if this isn't captured by the statistics (or is being hidden in the short run for obvious reasons)?

Of course, I wondered about just this same thing 6 years ago.

I always keep in mind that connecting dots is a risky game when you have no idea if you are seeing actual dots let alone connections.