Monday, February 06, 2012

The Road From Damascus

The US embassy staff drove in a convoy to Jordan to escape the escalating violence in Syria as Assad takes the opportunity to exploit the Russian and Chinese veto of a Security Council resolution calling on Assad to step down:

"The recent surge in violence, including bombings in Damascus on Dec. 23 and Jan. 6, has raised serious concerns that our Embassy is not sufficiently protected from armed attack," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said today. "We, along with several other diplomatic missions, conveyed our security concerns to the Syrian government but the regime failed to respond adequately."

The embassy had already drawn down its staffing over the past several months amid concerns about their security. After the latest round of reductions in January a core group of only 17 remained in the country. Some departed overland to Jordan while others flew out of the airport in the capital.

With news reports that an Iranian general (I assume from the Revolutionary Guards Corps) is in Damascus to coordinate the crackdown, you can't assume that our embassy is safe from attack.

With Russia and China backing him, Assad may go all in to kill his way out of the budding revolt. Egypt shows what a partial retreat does for the ruling elite that just pretends to leave. Libya showed what the lack of Russian or Chinese protection gets you. Tunisia shows what the lack of a loyal military does.

So an escalation of killing protesters can proceed with Russian and Chinese protection to avoid retreating one step and to attempt to end the problem faster before the bulk of the military defects or dissolves from desertions and draft evasion.

We shall see if our words of concern from Syrians will lead us to action either at the head of a coalition group of the willing likeminded nations or whether we'll try to lead from behind.

I guess we'll find out if President Obama fears being held responsible for another Rwanda or another Iraq on his watch.