SHOULD Tehran ignite a combat exchange, we need to ensure not only that Iran's nuclear-weapons program is crippled, but that its broader capabilities are shattered. Militarily, it will be time for our Air Force to prove its worth, with the Navy in support. Iran's recent experience of conflict is of attrition-based land warfare. But there's no need for us to employ conventional ground forces inside Iran (special operations troops are another matter). We'll have to watch the Iraqi and Afghan borders, but our fight would be waged from the air and from the sea.
If we're pulled into war, we need to strike hard and fast - before Iran's allies can make mischief in international forums. We should destroy as much of Tehran's nuclear infrastructure as possible, eliminate its air force and air defenses and wreck its naval facilities beyond repair - no matter the collateral damage. The madmen in Tehran must pay an unbearable price.
The results within Iran would be unpredictable. Fiercely nationalistic, the country's core Persian population might unify behind the regime, setting back our hopes for an eventual rapprochement with a post-Islamist government.
Alternatively, the regime may be weaker than we think and could topple of its own weight. Or it may continue to muddle through miserably for years. Iran's military could remain loyal to the mullahs or, sufficiently battered, might turn upon them. We don't know what would happen because the Iranians themselves don't know. The variables and dynamics are simply incalculable.
BUT a half-hearted military response to Iranian aggres sion would only strengthen the confidence of our enemies and invite future confrontations.
One, Iran could become irrational and start a conflict. Perhaps convinced we will strike they decide to hit us first. Perhaps we encourage this worry, too.
Two, if Iran initiates a conflict we must respond brutally and widely.
Three, we really don't know if a thorough military response that chews up the Iranian WMD, command and control, and military/security assets will solidify or undermine the regime's support.
I don't know if we can rule out ground forces. They might be useful just going after Iran's WMD; or in a broader siege; or as part of an effort to overthrow the regime.
Keep the slogans "if you strike a king, kill him" and "never do an enemy a small injury" in mind. Don't give the mullahs the option of getting revenge by letting them survive a military conflict.
If we must wage another Gulf War, let us make sure that this Fourth Gulf War is the last one.
