Saturday, April 08, 2006

Smile and Nod at the Crazy Man

Venezuela under Hugo Chavez is a pain in the butt no doubt, and Chavez is a poster boy for why we have JDAMs.

His latest goes beyond insults and rhetoric with a mob attack on our ambassador's motorcade:


The State Department accused Caracas city officials of complicity Friday in an attack on the car of U.S. Ambassador William Brownfield in the Venezuelan capital.

Nonetheless, dealing with him would be a distraction from the Long War. Chavez is a charter member of the Axis of El Vil (along with Castro) but mostly an annoyance.

So while Chavez will continue to puff up and "defy" the United States, we should go about our business and pay him no mind. Say nice things in public about Venezuelans in general. Ignore Hugo as much as possible. And encourage NGOs, the EU, and the UN to support civic institutions inside Venezuala. This is one state that we can afford to take the time to encourage an Insert-Your-Color-Here Revolution.

Let him rant. Let's not make him a hero in Latin America by reacting to his bluster. We aren't about to devote 200,000 troops and five years to take him out so let's not even pretend we might or start issuing threats. In the end, we'd have to back down and give Hugo a victory.

We have real problems to deal with, remember? Just smile and nod at the crazy man and keep walking by him.

UPDATE: Strategypage notes that Chavez is more popular with foreigners than with Venezuelans these days:

Things are not going well in Venezuela. The poor, who have expected so much for supporting president Chavez, have received little. Chavez is more concerned about buying himself a better international reputation, and internal security, than he is with economic reform. The people are unhappy about this.

Like I said, don't confront him. If he is determined to alienate his own people, let him. Help the targets of his ambitions in the region resist his influence-buying, but don't confront Hugo to give him a cheap victory against the Yanquis.

Contain him as much as possible so he doesn't build his Leftist empire. Constrain his freedom of action at home so he doesn't feel like he can go postal on his people. Sustain the opposition indirectly through entities that can't be successfully called American stooges. And wait him out.

This is one problem that we can afford to kick down the path a little bit and hope for the best.