A Prudent Move

Negotiations between America and Japan about relocating about 8,000 Marines from Okinawa mostly to Guam are foundering on cost issues. We want Japan to help pay for this redeployment.

It is an interesting problem. Japan wants the Marines to move for their own domestic political considerations and we would like to reduce a friction point, so who will give in more on the money issue?

Personally, I just like the idea of what I assume is a move by basically a regimental combat team and associated support forces (I think our MEF on Okinawa is a two-regiment MEF) to Guam.

The Chinese are surely aware that Guam is an important base to us in the western Pacific and would be very important in a Taiwan crisis. While I think the Chinese would try to keep any conflict over Taiwan isolated to China and Taiwan for as long as possible rather than internationalize it by attacking Japan or America, I can't rule out the possibility that China might conclude that they need to bloody our nose and knock as back on our heels to buy the time they need to conquer Taiwan. At best, Peking might believe that a sharp blow will deter us completely from intervening.

I've read speculation that in the case of a Taiwan invasion, China would hit Guam with missiles and air strikes to gum up our response. But if we are assuming a Chinese decision to tangle with us right off the bat, without any ground defense capability on Guam, might not China decide that it should try to scrape up a regiment to assault Guam to knock out our air and naval base there?

A full Marine regimental combat team on Guam would defend that island quite sufficiently against a surprise Chinese attack, I imagine. I mean, assuming they could sneak a force close to Guam without alerting us--though a decision to attack "civilian" ships approaching Guam would surely be a difficult choice to make many thousands of miles away in Washington, D. C., I should think. So I don't rule it out.

But once alerted, our air and naval forces would be able to stop anything from approaching and so our Marines would be free to deploy to Taiwan itself and without the need to consult with Japan over using our forces based in Japan.

Japan will react more slowly than we will, I think, given their constitutional restrictions. By the time we need to move another regiment and division base elements from Japan, Tokyo should have had time to enter the fight.

And simply splitting the Marines complicates China's ability to interdict the shipment of Marines to Taiwan.

So moving Marines to Guam is good for us in many ways.