Is regime change the goal of America's military deployment near Venezuela? I speculated in Substack about a limited mission for American forces facing Maduro in Venezuela. I should expand on that.
Could American Marines deployed in the Caribbean (basically a Marine battalion reinforced with ground and air assets) be used to seize one of Venezuela’s islands in order to allow a rival government to establish a capital on Venezuelan soil? Ideally, Venezuelan rebels rise up on one of the islands, America recognizes the government, and then lands Marines to defend it. With naval and air power behind it.
Not sure what that would achieve. Give momentum to resistance to Maduro? Provide legal avenues in American and/or international law to undermine Maduro? Does it support a bigger covert plan? Would the Marines then be used to secure the American embassy that is still active with local employees?
I'm sure we don't want a full war. A short, limited war is nice work, if you can get it, as the saying goes.
So I can't help but think this is a distraction for the real strike on Hezbollah, which no doubt has assets in Venezuela. Iran certainly has assets in the region. Settling down the Middle East is vitally important to prevent problems; and Hezbollah has a logistics tail in the Americas that operates even if America squeezes broke Iran's aid to Hezbollah. With America looking for additional basing options, where is the objective?
Or maybe all is as it seems. Perhaps this will be an enhanced Bay of Pigs operation (there are a lot of Venezuelan refugees in America in addition to the gang members Maduro sent here) in which America doesn't unleash the regime change and then abandon the tip of the spear at the last minute.
Still, the forces that sustain Maduro now might simply shape his replacement in his image. Can we address that problem even if we succeed in Caracas?
UPDATE: Last night my statistics indicated a hit in the Chinese language from Venezuela on this post about unleashing robots against civilians in a Tienanmen Square-type crisis.
What's up with that?
UPDATE: Either this is the mission or we are really leaning in to the cover mission:
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Thursday evening a new operation dubbed “Southern Spear” to quash “narco-terrorists” in the Western Hemisphere.
UPDATE: If accurate, this does not indicate landing troops:
Senior military officials on Wednesday presented President Trump with updated options for potential operations in Venezuela, including strikes on land, according to multiple sources familiar with the meetings at the White House.
What would the strikes on land hit?
UPDATE: Huh:
The Department of State intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), effective November 24, 2025. Based in Venezuela, the Cartel de los Soles is headed by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking individuals of the illegitimate Maduro regime who have corrupted Venezuela’s military, intelligence, legislature, and judiciary.
The cartel of the Suns has links to Hezbollah (and Iran) via Colombian ELN insurgents/criminals:
International intelligence agencies revealed that there is an alliance between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the cartel of the Suns, allegedly led by the Venezuelan dictatorial regime. ...
The general information revealed the existence of increasing cooperation between the ELN and international networks associated with Hezbollah, especially in money laundering activities and in the export of cocaine to West Africa and the Middle East.
That's the browser translation.
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NOTE: Map from https://besthotelshome.com/map-of-venezuela-venezuela-flag-facts-and-places-to-visit/
