As a legal mechanism, this is perhaps a bit disturbing:
“It’s a step too far to say we’re drawing up legal justifications for an action, given that the president hasn’t made a decision,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the deliberations. “But Kosovo, of course, is a precedent of something that is perhaps similar.”
Going to war without Congressional support or even UN backing requires very low casualties to carry out. Otherwise, support will erode at home and abroad before we can win.
But let's hope that strategic geniuses in the White House don't think Kosovo is an operational precedent.
Kosovo was fought against a Christian Serbian government in no danger of using WMD and in support of a minority secession movement that allowed the government of Serbia to accept defeat without losing their core territory.
And it required nearly three months of bombing and the eventual growing threat of ground invasion to complement the aerial assault.
Syria will be fought against a minority Alawite government against a national revolt that seeks to gain control of the entire state--or at least to drive the minority rulers into their own corner of Syria. So Assad cannot accept defeat without giving up at least the majority of Syria--and maybe exile if the Alawite core cannot hold.
And unless the Turks are pining for glory in their old Ottoman Empire stomping grounds, there is no army prepared to intervene to compel Assad's acceptance of defeat.
So if the Obama administration wants a legal template for going to war without Congress or the UN, Kosovo is a precedent.
But they'd best not confuse a legal strategy for an operational template.
I'd rather just open up the spigots of arms and intelligence for the rebels. The best retaliation for Assad's chemical weapons use is doing harm to Assad, isn't it? And overthrowing him will do the most harm.
But arming rebels isn't as dramatic as a 7:00 p.m. White House address to the nation announcing the start of bombing operations over Syria to show the president cares.
