Thursday, August 15, 2013

Ending the Distraction.

I'm pleased that the Kurds will reengage in the war against jihadi terrorists in Iraq. I'm shocked at how bad that al Qaeda threat is getting. I guess our government got distracted by escalation in Afghanistan, and while we focused on defeating the Taliban there, al Qaeda recovered and grew in Iraq.

The central government of Iraq and the largely autonomous Kurdish region seem ready to cooperate on fighting al Qaeda:

The Shi'ite-led Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities are now looking at examples like the Shirqat attack and considering the once unthinkable - launching joint security operations and sharing intelligence - to combat the common enemy of al Qaeda.

That's good. The Kurds had a head start on forming military units after the Persian Gulf War when our no-fly zone helped them effectively break away from Saddam's Iraq. During the Iraq War, the Kurdish troops were the most effective on the government's side. So getting the Kurdish forces back in the fight will be good.

But the size of that scary Shirqat attack floored me:

When hundreds of al Qaeda fighters in armored trucks attacked the northern Iraqi town of Shirqat with machine guns last week, the local army unit called for backup and set off in pursuit.

But after a two-hour chase through searing desert heat, most militants vanished into a cluster of Kurdish villages where the Iraqi army cannot enter without a nod from regional authorities.

Hundreds of attackers were involved? Are you kidding me?

When we were there, the enemy was reduced to relying on indirect fire and IEDs to fight us. Attacks of even platoon-strength (40 men, give or take 10) were rare.

It is good that even an attack by hundreds of al Qaeda was repelled. And it is good that the Iraqi forces pursued the terrorists. That's good instinct rather than sitting in the base and high-fiving the successful defense without doing more.

But the very fact that hundreds of al Qaeda gunmen can motor up to a base and hit it is an outrage. A year and a half after we wrongly left Iraq, this is what it has come to. We should have kept 25,000 troops there, including three combat brigades to help train and provide a solid reserve force, as well as intelligence and Special Forces to hunt down the remnant al Qaeda who were truly knocked back on their heels in 2007 as the result of the surge offensive and Sunni Awakening.

I'm glad the Kurds are rejoining the fight. I'm glad we sent our CIA back in--but I see no results yet. I think we should send Special Forces back to central Iraq with a Stryker brigade and Ranger battalion in support, plus UAV support to atomize al Qaeda again.

Make sure we have a heavy brigade rotating a battalion through Kuwait, just in case. And add an airmobile brigade to eastern Jordan doing the same and a paratrooper brigade to Turkey also rotating a battalion through, just in case we need to use the bigger hammer on al Qaeda or rescue special forces units that get in trouble facing a large enemy force.

Clearly, the "real war" against al Qaeda is in Iraq, as it has been for the last nine years.

UPDATE: Hey! Another step back in:

The United States and Iraq agreed on Thursday to boost cooperation to keep Iran from flying weapons over Iraq to Syria, and to curb the radicalization of young Iraqis and other spillover effects from the Syrian conflict.

Well, it isn't as good as it sounds. It will take years to have an air defense system capable of policing Iraqi air space.

And curbing radicalization and support for both jihadis and Assad in Syria would require curbing both Iran's influence on Shia volunteers for Assad and al Qaeda operations that cross back and forth across the border. I doubt we got more than words from the Iraqis, really.

But at least we seem to fathom we have a problem we need to address. Pity we left prematurely in 2011.

UPDATE: Wow. The Iraqis want our help:

A resurgence of violence and a renewed threat from al-Qaida have recently revived flagging U.S. interest in Iraq, officials said Friday as Baghdad asked for new help to fight extremists less than two years after it forced American troops to withdraw.

Faced with security crises across the Mideast, North Africa and Asia, the White House largely has turned its attention away from Iraq since U.S. forces left in 2011. But the country has been hit with deadly bombings at a rate reminiscent of Iraq's darkest days, stoking new fears of a civil war. More than 1,000 Iraqis were killed in terror-related attacks in July, the deadliest month since 2008.

The violence has spurred Baghdad to seek new U.S. aid to curb the threat, said Iraqi Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari. He said a U.S. assistance package could include a limited number of advisers, intelligence analysis and surveillance assets — including lethal drones.

"There is greater realization in the Iraq government that we should not shy away from coming and asking for some help and assistance," Zebari told reporters Friday in Washington.

He described U.S. interest in Iraq after the 2011 troop withdrawal as "indifferent, completely" but said that seemed to shift as the White House realized al-Qaida's resurrection there.

Well, our administration has been distracted from the fight against al Qaeda in Iraq. Sorry about that. Apparently, somebody was waltzing around here saying the "tide of war was receding" while al Qaeda in Iraq rebuilt itself.

I think we need special forces, too. But perhaps Iraqi special forces are good enough if we provide intelligence assistance. I can't make that call. But if we do send in special forces, we really need to have regular Army troops within range to help if they get in trouble.