Friday, August 09, 2013

Over? A Pause, Perhaps

Strategypage notes that the age of mass firepower is over. I'll quibble with that judgment.

This is a very true development in our use of firepower:

Since September 11, 2001, the age of massive firepower has come to an end. It was only 130 years ago that the introduction of nitrocellulose propellants for firearms and artillery, and high-grade mass produced metal parts, made possible machine-guns and modern (quick firing and quite accurate) artillery. This radically changed warfare, since the side with more of these guns, and ammo for them, had a huge advantage. It began a brief age of massive firepower. That has all changed in this century. ...

Thus, one of the less noticed revolutions in warfare has been the American development of precision firepower from an occasional weapon to the standard method, which has rapidly replaced the massive firepower tactics that dominated the 20th century. For most people American smart bombs, like JDAM and laser guided bombs, represent "precision firepower." But the concept goes much farther than that. American infantry carry automatic weapons but most of the time they fire one precise shot at a time. In Afghanistan and Iraq the locals quickly got to know when American troops were fighting in the area. They were the ones firing single shots. The other guys fired their AK-47s on full auto. But it was the sparser American firepower that dominated. Better training, and high tech sights, made the U.S. troops very accurate. This led to wider use of snipers, with up to ten percent of American troops qualified and equipped for this kind of shooting. Snipers alone have greatly changed American infantry tactics.

It isn't just accuracy of firing, it's the whole ball of wax of persistent surveillance married to precision which allows a much more rapid battle tempo.

But this new age of precision and speed applies only to America and only for a short period of time. Libya showed that even Western nations couldn't keep up a precision campaign without resupply from America. And how long could we fight with precision weapons in a long conflict against a major foe?

After all, a lengthy fight post-mass firepower requires both precision weapons and troops trained to use and exploit them. We will use up both weapons and troops as attrition affects even our well-trained and well-equipped forces. Eventually, as the British army in France in 1914 experienced, the high-quality troops who fired rifles so accurately and rapidly that the Germans thought they were facing machine guns will be replaced by less trained troops who will need mass firepower.

The age of mass firepower isn't over as far as Assad is concerned, you'll admit.

So yeah, for America and select Western nations involved in a brief or low intensity conflict, the age of mass firepower is over. But if a bigger war goes on for more than a few months, I doubt we can keep up the pace of supplying precision weapons and troops skilled in their use. Then it will be back to mass firepower.

Eventually we may get to the point where precision is so cheap that we won't go back to dumb bombs, shells, and rockets. But I don't think we are there yet.