This is the first I've heard of this issue in a while:
So far, the Obama administration hasn't agreed to send Taiwan the upgraded F-16s, or formally accepted the LOR. However, the administration has also said it hasn't ruled it out. What's clear is Taiwan needs new fighters to have adequate leverage for continued diplomacy with China. However, having the U.S. supply Taiwan with upgraded F-16s would negatively affect China-U.S. relations. Consequently, such a decision seems unlikely.
The Bush administration also refused to accept a letter of request [LOR] from Taiwan in 2006. I believe that refusal stemmed from our offer 5 years earlier that Taiwan rejected. Why take a hit in relations with China if Taiwan isn't going to actually appropriate the money to buy the planes?
Similar thinking may be taking place now. But with China's economy stalling, China being more aggressive anyway, and China finally seeing opposition to North Korean nuclear ambitions as a Chinese interest rather than a favor to America and Japan, why worry too much about China's bad reaction now?
There is no doubt that Taiwan needs the planes:
Following repeated failed attempts to attain F-16C/Ds, Taiwan agreed in July 2012 to Lockheed's proposal to upgrade Taiwan's current F-16 fleet -- a value of $3.7 billion. However, analysts have stated that without the upgraded F-16C/Ds, Taiwan wouldn't have a credible defense against China's modernized fleet, and according to a Congressional Research Service study, "Taiwan's fighters would drop in number by 70% without new F-16s and by 50% with 66 new F-16s" by 2020.
Even with new F-16s, Taiwan's air power will lose ground to China's air force.
It makes little sense to pivot to the Asia-Pacific region and fail to support our allies in Asia and the Pacific.
