Friday, August 02, 2013

Running the Gauntlet

As the body count in Iraq shoots up with al Qaeda killing sprees and Americans fret about Maliki's ability to keep sectarian warfare from breaking out again--seemingly hoping for a coup to rid us of that so-called troublesome Shia--it is nice to read some hopeful analysis.

Was the bloodletting in 2006-2007 so bad that Iraqis won't return to those days?

Although the country continues to reel from the explosions, enough has changed since 2006 that even continued attacks are unlikely to bring Iraq back to the brink of war, officials and many analysts say.

“There are car bombs but there are restraints also. We’ve been there and we don’t want to go there again,” says Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, whose own ministry was hit by a truck bomb four years ago.

"Before people said ‘No, we will not be involved in the political process. We’ve been robbed, we’ve been cheated, and that’s why we’re going to fight',” says Mr. Zebari, referring to widespread Sunni boycotts of Iraq’s first elections. “Now the situation is completely different because all the communities are engaged in parliament, in government, in running their provinces, in administration as a whole.”

Iraqis, it is said, are more geared toward new elections in 2014.

I hope this is right. I hope that people see elections as the way to redress grievances because they can count on the next election taking place in an honest fashion.

Syria might actually be helping Iraqis avoid reigniting the civil war. Not only do they have an example of high death counts--which could exceed the total Iraq War count before the end of this year--but many Iraqi Shias who might have activated death squads in Iraq are going to Syria to fight for Assad.

If this is so, it is doubly important not to undermine Maliki in the incorrect belief that a new leader is the key to avoiding problems. If Maliki loses the next election, we should welcome the new prime minister. The important thing is that Iraqis should be geared to the next election and not willing to pull out the guns and bombs to win their arguments.