Paris has said it plans to start withdrawing some of its 4,000 troops from Mali next month but the rebel fightback comes as Mali's army remains weak and divided and African forces due to take over the French role are not yet in place.
Islamists abandoned the main towns they held but French and Malian forces have said there are pockets of Islamist resistance across the north, which is about the size of France.
The French advance was suitably impressive and fast. And they appear to have killed a good number of jihadis with their air power as their blitzkrieg forced the jihadis to move.
But the French are going to turn over responsibility for stabilization to troops that will alienate the people they need to cooperate with (the Tuaregs) in order to hunt down and kill the remaining jihadis?
I'm starting to think European nuance with a French accent is overrated.
UPDATE: Strategypage has more about the situation.
UPDATE: The jihadis paid the price for massing:
Chadian troops killed 65 al Qaeda-linked fighters in the clashes that began before midday in the Adrar des Ifoghas mountains near Mali's northern border with Algeria.
Chad lost 13 of their own trooops.
Eventually, persistent surveillance, aerial firepower, and effective ground troops could force the jihadis to spread out to avoid getting hammered like this. That will help isolated government and ECOWAS and foriegn African outposts survive by making it less likely that the jihadis can mass enough troops to overrun those outposts.
If the French leave too soon, the jihadis won't be atomized. Then the foreign African forces will bear the brunt and will tire of the casualties and go home, leaving the Mali troops more eager for revenge against the Tuaregs than in fighting jihadis in the lead. If that happens, the Tuaregs will again align with the jihadis and eject the demonstrably crappy Mali army from the north, and we'll be right back where we started last spring--but worse since the Tuaregs may not be tempted to turn on the jihadis again.
France needs to rethink that whole declare victory and go home nonsense. At the very least, Western special forces, drones, and firepower are needed to keep the jihadis at bay while the Mali army is made ready for the fight. Foreign African forces will only take so many casualties before they say, "screw you guys, I'm going home."
And good God, cut a deal with the Tuaregs, or the French effort will have been wasted.
