Ahmadinejad got a friendly greeting from Morsi in Egypt:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Egypt on Tuesday on the first trip by an Iranian president since the 1979 revolution, underlining a thaw in relations since Egyptians elected an Islamist head of state.
President Mohamed Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood politician elected in June, kissed Ahmadinejad as he disembarked from his plane at Cairo airport. The leaders walked down a red carpet, Ahmadinejad smiling as he shook hands with waiting dignitaries.
Sheesh, get a room already. The story goes on to say that it is unlikely that Egypt will link up with Iran. I agree.
Sunni and Arab Egypt has few points of agreement with Shia and Persian Iran that can overcome their differences.
And unless Iran--already going broke and sending good money after bad in Syria--is willing to fork over vast amounts of money to replace American aid and Gulf Arab aid, good luck from getting more than a kiss from Mursi. Dinner and a movie are the least Mursi will expect to go all the way.
Further, Egypt would then need sources of weapons other than America should Morsi commit to Iran. Thirty-five years afte Egypt tossed out the Soviet Union, they are still replacing Soviet-era weapons with American gear. Unless the Egyptians actually believe that Iran is an unheralded developer of wonder weapons to smite the Great Satan, that's a serious problem.
Egypt is also a contender for a leader in the Middle East. They have the population, the right religion (Sunni) and ethnicity (Arab), and a modern-looking military that could defeat any other non-Israel regional state and which would at least take some time and effort to be defeated by Israel.
Saudi Arabia is already a contender based on their oil wealth and control of Islamic holy places. But they are cautious.
Iran is a contender from their population and historic power, from their geographic position astide the strait of Hormuz, their willingness to use terror as a state tool, as a leader of the anti-Israel front, as the leading Shia state, and the fear that they will become a nuclear power. But they are Persian when the rest of the Middle East is mostly Arab.
Turkey has recent hopes of being a leader in the Middle East because of their population, military power, and ties to the West, which are enabled by new hostility to Israel. But they are Turks with a long history of ruling Arabs from North Africa to the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.
Iraq under Saddam tried to replace Egypt as the leading Middle Eastern state after Egypt forfeited that title by making peace with Israel. But their effort to be the sword of the Arab world failed when they struggled to a draw with Iran in their long war in the 1980s. And since the Sunni Arab minority lost control of Iraq to the Shia majority, Iraq is out until Iraq rearms and the sting of that religious loss fades in the Arab world, much as Egypt's peace treaty sting has faded with time (and with Egypt's support for Iraq in the war that ended Iraq's chance to claim the crown) as a reason to reject Egyptian leadership.
So Egypt--despite the disruptions of the Arab Spring--has a real shot at regaining their position as the leading state in the Middle East Moslem world, as Israel is clearly no longer the main issue that distracts Arab states (if it ever really was despite the rhetoric--more wars were fought between Arabs than between Arabs and Israel).
But Sunni Egypt is too broke to go too far with their infatuation with the Jew-hating Ahmadinejad who rolls into town sporting a sleek F-313 without getting a ring on their finger and a sizable dowry that can replace Saudi and American cash--and the tourism income that comes from being an ally of stability oriented powers rather than the challenger Iran.
Be patient and work the problem (there's a good Strategytalk link here). If we get frustrated and disown our troubled child, Egypt will just move in with that rogue Iran, and we won't like the fruit of their loins even if in the long run we know Egypt will have their heart broken and want to move back in with us.
