Rising incomes and the loss of revolutionary fervor in the leadership may push China to democracy (tip to Instapundit):
If this analysis is convincing enough for us to entertain the strong possibility of a democratic transition in China in the coming 10-15 years, the more interesting follow-up question is definitely “how will such a transition happen?”
Again, based on the rich experience of democratic transitions since the 1970s, there are five ways China could become democratic[.]
The article goes on to explain the five ways to freedom. From a "happy ending" where the rulers understand their hold is slipping and they negotiate a process to navigate elections that deprive the rulers of their monopoly of power and prevent revenge killings or purges, to failed reforms, failed repression, financial breakdown, or even environmental breakdown (so much for reasonably enlightened "green" leadership).
In the long run, this is a good thing rather than accepting the continued rise of an aggressive authoritarian government. But in the short run, we all worship at the altar of stability, really. If an economy as large as China's checks out of the world economy from some political crisis, we all feel it. A happy ending scenario would be best, but given four other (conceived) paths away from authoritarian rule, it is easy to hope for the status quo that seems to promise stability.
While we may prefer stability, the status quo might not be the best way to achieve it. Wouldn't it be better for China to transition to democracy before they feel strong enough to use their growing power to overturn stability? There's no guarantee that a democratic China won't be aggressive, but the odds do look better that way, don't they?
Indeed, while we have strengths that will help us face a rising China even if they pass us in power, for smaller and nearby neighbors that can't match China in an arms race and view with nervousness the prospect of a nuclear stalemate as the way out of that dilemma, the only good defense may be to promote that democratic transition:
So if Taiwan can't in the long run build a sufficient military with their much smaller economy and Taiwan also wishes to maintain their de facto independence, another method of protecting themselves must be found.
Nuclear weapons are one answer, of course. Taiwan could build them. But that is risky if China decides that a preemptive nuclear strike is the only way to disarm Taiwan of those weapons.
Another way is to affect China's desire for Taiwan. If China stops wanting to take Taiwan, then the balance doesn't matter nearly as much. As unlikely as this may seem, when you rule out any other option of defending your island democracy, what is left is the only option. Yes, provoking regime change in Peking could be the only way out of the losing race Taiwan is in.
Everyone might not live happily ever after--this is the real world, after all--but I count it a victory just to survive one problem and move on to the next.
