If the crisis over the Senkaku Islands escalates, expect China to hit hard and fast (Via Mead with a hat tip to Instapundit):
“The battle to take over the Diaoyu Islands would not be a conventional operation. For either party involved in the war, it would be very difficult to employ their full military capabilities, because there would be no time for them to fully unfold in the fight. The real fight would be very short. It is very possible the war would end in a couple of days or even in a few hours,” said PLA Navy Rear Admiral Yin Zhou, a former director of the Navy Institute of Strategic Studies, in a recent primetime special on Beijing TV.
I agree it would be difficult for either side to fully commit their forces for a Senkaku scenario. Especially land forces, where China's advantage is largest. As the article notes, the biggest island in the group could hold a platoon. Indeed, that limitation makes it more likely Japan will prevail.
To the general point that China wants to win wars quickly, that is a result of China's overall inferiority to American plus our allies and the fact that China--being far closer than America to any area of operations--is able to strike first and so maximize their force commitment (in addition to perhaps gaining the element of surprise). China simply must win before we can gather our forces, decide to fight, and then counter-attack. If we have the time to do that, it is more likely we will prevail.
China faces a dilemma in regard to American forward-deployed forces if China wants to strike Japan (or any other third party). China's basic strategy for a quick war against America must be to hit our forces hard to delay our response in defense of whatever target China selects. If China attacks the Senkaku Islands, does China hit our forces too in an effort to give us a bloody nose and delay our counter-offensive? I've often said that China doesn't need to defeat us to win a war they start. China needs to defeat their target (Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, or whoever) before we can intervene.
But striking us to hurt our forward forces would also bring us into the war automatically rather than drag out our decision-making process to enter the war. That decision by China to hit us too might guarantee a long war by making us less likely to leave China alone after they make a quick gain in the Senkaku Islands. Indeed, it might cause a war with America even if Japan decides it isn't worth it to fight China over the islands after China makes that quick gain they expect.
China obviously will be the ones to strike first since Japan administers the islands already. Japan is defending the status quo. Unfortunately for Japan, the islands are too small to put land force garrisons on the islands to defend them. If China chooses, they can likely put forces on, around, and over the islands and compel Japan to eject the Chinese.
Of course, Japan could defend the islands with robots. That would increase the price China must pay for what they hope will be a short and glorious war. And it might increase the amount of force China would have to commit to the operation, making it less likely that China could achieve surprise with a bolt-from-the-blue attack.
Remember, too, that China doesn't have to be right about their prospects for a short war. They just have to believe it is true to plunge the western Pacific into war.
