Ahmadinejad needs allies. The looming loss of Syria's Assad makes this more important than before. Iran's ruler hopes the Islamist Mursi will be one:
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on the first visit to Cairo by an Iranian leader in more than three decades, called for a strategic alliance with Egypt and said he had offered the cash-strapped Arab state a loan, but drew a cool response.
As I wrote, there are many reasons Egypt shouldn't want to hitch their wagon to Ahmdadinejad's star. Note that Egypt being a Sunni Arab state while Iran is a Shia Persian-run state is a reason for them not to cooperate but it isn't a veto. These two types of rulers can work together for common anti-American goals.
But it is not out of the question that Egypt could turn to Iran. One, it must be tempting to just go with the most anti-US guy in the neighborhood. There would be great short-term satisfaction in doing that.
So we must make sure that Mursi doesn't feel tempted.
It shouldn't be tempting because Iran can't possibly provide Egypt with enough money if America, Gulf Arabs, and others halt aid; and if tourism dries up out of fear. Further, Iran is not a military power. They aggressively use terrorism (and get away with it) and they have great press releases about their fantasy weapons. But Iran is weak. They can't save Assad and they couldn't save Mursi if he needed the help.
But if we reach out to Iran and negotiate an agreement that lifts sanctions and grants Iran "peaceful" nuclear programs, we will critically weaken the voice of reason that tells Mursi it would be stupid to count on Iran.
Iran would then have more money to spend on Egypt and Iran would remain on the road to nuclear weapons since Saddam established the rule that thug rulers don't have to prove they are not pursuing weapons of mass destruction--the United States must prove they are pursuing weapons of mass destruction. And it doesn't matter what the agreement says. Eventually, we have to do the proving.
And if we can come to an understanding with Iran, why can't Egypt, Mursi could argue.
So simply coming to some type of agreement with Iran risks allowing an Egyptian-Iranian friendship to develop. It wouldn't work out in the long run, but in the short run Iran could inflict a lot of damage.
Now that's nuance, eh?
