The Pop-Up "Boneyards" on the Battlefields

While Russian tanks have a higher tendency to blow up because of ammunition stowage issues, lots of tanks (and armored vehicles) are merely damaged, broken down, or stuck. Recovering these armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) is important to keep the troops equipped.

The Russians and Ukrainians are scrambling to replace AFV losses:

With Ukraine’s supply of Western-donated vehicles beginning to dry up after its counter-offensive failed to produce a breakthrough, and with Russia losing hundreds of tanks in failed eastern assaults, engineers are using every means at their disposal to plug the gaps in their forces.

In some cases, they have had to reach deep into storage facilities and scrap heaps, pulling out weapons systems and parts of vehicles that have not seen combat for decades and grafting them together to create entirely new vehicles.

What is not really mentioned as a source of these vehicles and parts to rebuild AFVs is battlefield recovery:

This highlights a feature of armored warfare long evident. Controlling the battlefield is key to winning the campaign. If you control the battlefield, you can recover the 90% or more of vehicles lost from minor hits, mechanical breakdown, or just getting stuck and abandoned. Just as important, you keep the enemy from recovering their immobilized vehicles. Keep doing that battle after battle and the balance of forces can swing dramatically through attrition. Controlling the battlefield, as we do in Iraq, provides dramatic benefits for us.

This leads to another issue, how we kill enemy armor (or defend our own). While the most obvious way to kill enemy armor is to penetrate its armor to detonate ammunition and fuel with a dramatic explosion that sends a turret spinning through the air to land 50 meters away, soft kills knock out a tank just as surely in the short run.

In situations where we can reasonably predict that we will control the battlefield for at least a week or so, we can afford to kill enemy vehicles with soft kills. Given time, our troops can blow up enemy vehicles damaged or tow them away to repair and use them. And recover and repair our own, of course, to send them back into battle.

On the other hand, in situations where we won't be controlling the battlefield, we will need to actually blow up enemy vehicles to keep them from just being temporary losses. 

Think of them as temporary mothball fleets or aircraft boneyards for armored vehicles.

And controlling the battlefield expands enemy losses and makes it easier to make enemy "soft" kills during a battle into permanent losses. And of course, adding that mobile, protected firepower to your own side. Ukraine received a considerable amount of Russian AFVs during 2022.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks Security in Fantasyland

Some people in the West are determined to let Russia occupy Ukraine's Fantasyland border regions in the mistaken belief that responsible statecraft can bring us virtually cost-free peace for our time in Europe.

Here we have a fantasy solution that promises security for Ukraine and the West with hardly any military burden at all!: 

If we want a prosperous Ukraine with a viable path toward liberal governance and European Union membership, we will have to concede that it cannot be a NATO or U.S. ally, and that this neutral Ukraine must have verifiable limits on the types and quantities of weapons it may hold. If we refuse to agree to those terms, Russia will quite probably turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional wreck incapable of rebuilding itself, allying with the West, or constituting a military threat to Russia.

The assumption is that Russia will grind down Ukraine's ability to resist and NATO's will to fund Ukrainian resistance before Russia's ability to feed the meat grinder with people and materiel falters.

Wow! How wonderful! For the small price of a slice of eastern and southern Ukraine handed over to Russia, Ukraine will become a prosperous, disarmed member of the West that lifts the military burden of spending more on defense and economic aid from NATO's shoulders! 

But wait! There's more! If Russia is willing to accept that outcome, the need to rearm NATO in case Russia attacks a NATO member is clearly unnecessary, too!

And don't worry, Russia will agree to continued Western arms aid to deny Russia future victories:

Sufficient aid to help Ukraine to stand successfully on the defensive should therefore continue.

If current levels of Western aid have led to the situation that the authors describe as futile for Ukraine defeating Russia, how on earth is that magical level of "sufficient" defined?

To avoid being a burden on the West it would have to be much less than aid in 2022 and 2023.

But Western aid would clearly need to be more than those levels that are inevitably leading to a Russian victory that requires responsible (and--dare I even hope--nuanced?) statecraft that rises to the level of Smart Diplomacy®!

But Russia will hardly accept any level of Western support that denies Russia the ability to conquer Ukraine quickly. I mean, the Russians would have a point saying that is hardly a disarmed Ukraine with "verifiable limits on the types and quantities of weapons" if Ukraine is relatively stronger than it is now.

Golly! Thank you Responsible Statecraft!

This magical outcome assumes that a Russia willing to lose massive numbers of young men and wreck its economy to push Ukraine over the edge will then stop its military operations after it gains a clear advantage. And allow Ukraine to become a prosperous Western-aligned country with a fig leaf of disarmament to cover Russia's failure to achieve a battlefield result good enough to justify the massive costs.

Face it, Russians will remember that the Germany that invaded it in World War I was isolated and thoroughly disarmed after that war. Then came back bigger and badder in World War II just two decades later to inflict even more death and destruction on Russia.

Indeed, paranoid Russian leaders will soon assume the whole deal is a stab-in-the-back charade even if because of its own exhaustion they takes the opportunity to end the war with that deal.

And then Putin will reload. 

With his military in positions more advanced with new rail lines and logistics bases leapfrogged forward because Russia will not relinquish any of its conquests from the Winter War of 2022. And face a disarmed Ukraine with a NATO lulled into continued disarmament behind it for the future big chance to restore Russia's Soviet-era greatness.

I often just shake my head in bewilderment at what Responsible Statecraft comes up with. It's time to remind ourselves of the concept of "useful idiots".

UPDATE (Saturday): Ukraine's are effort is relying on strategic warfare until its ground forces are rebuilt and it gets air power reinforcements:

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a successful drone strike on a Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai on the night of January 24 to 25.

UPDATE (Saturday): I did not realize tear gas was illegal in combat:

Russian forces are reportedly increasing their use of chemical weapons in Ukraine in continued apparent violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is party. ... [Russian troops apparently use] RG-VO grenades with chloroacetophenone, a type of tear gas used for riot control.

When did that change? Or is my memory faulty? Or is it about the specific type of tear gas used? It seems odd that it is apparently legal to use it to disperse rioters but not against troops.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump. 

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

Drone mania hasn't dethroned the king of battle: "While drones are increasingly influential on the battlefield, artillery is a mainstay for both armies, and Ukraine is having to balance its use of various calibre shells based on the available supply."

The corrupt morons holding the strings enter the spotlight. 

I worry that reports that corruption has crippled China's military are an effort to appear far when the PLA is close. I say "China is not a 'paper dragon' we can dismiss as a threat. This is a reaction to an article claiming just that which I commented on last week: 'Is China a "paper dragon'?" Don't panic. Prepare.

I don't care if crashing the damaged Peregrine into the Moon could anger "the Navajo Nation, which had called that cargo a 'desecration' of the celestial body." Also don't care about a silly objection by a "professor of art history, archaeology, and space studies". Funny how exceptions to Science! are made.

I condemned the Vermont man who shot three young men of Palestinian origin. The case got sad for progressives. The shooter is not MAGA. He supported Hamas and Biden. He's a progressive hippie. He hates America. He's mentally ill. The media said "Islamophobia". Few saw the truth. Via Instapundit.

Why do Greens hate people so much? Via Instapundit.

How does Ukraine make peace with Russia? "[Russians are kept supportive] by astute propaganda depicting Russia as under siege by the West and NATO. Opinion polls show wide popular support for this paranoid fantasy, but some Russians continue to struggle for better government and beneficial reforms."

As Russians die to conquer Ukraine: "China, the only real threat to Russia, quietly makes progress in the east. There China has claims on much of the Russian Far East and is openly replacing Russia as the primary economic, military, and political force in Central Asia."

If true, that can't be good for Russian troop morale: "About 40 percent of Russian casualties are dead compared to only 20 percent of Ukrainian casualties because the Russians in this war get no battlefield medical treatment[.]"

Even Nazis, Japanese militants, and the Kaiser's Germany admitted defeat when things got too bad for their own people. But you really want to claim we're responsible for the plight of Gazans who cheered when Hamas raped and murdered their way into Israel on October 7, 2023 to start this war?

Corruption: "Russia is descending into a Third World state known as a resource kleptocracy but run by a for-real gangster confederacy. The only difference with Russia is that they have nuclear and biological weapons from before the Soviet Union collapsed."

TBI-induced PTSD: "The debilitating effects of the concussive impact are not immediately obvious. The army discovered that over time, even in peacetime, troops exposed to these loud noises developed behavioral problem, such as becoming more easily agitated and prone to unexpected aggressive behavior."

The Houthi's still have weapons and personnel to fire them: "The anti-ship cruise missile was fired at the USS Laboon in the southern Red Sea and downed off the port city of Hudaydah, on Yemen’s west coast, by a US fighter jet." If the Houthi's can't be deterred, they can still die.

Via Instapundit, I think they are confused about a promise versus a threat. And now for something completely different:

Xi discovered that corruption has undermined his military. On the bright side, Xi won't order his military into action in the mistaken belief his military is outstanding. Unless he is trying to appear far when near.

Yes, Iran has been at war with America since the Shah was overthrown: "For decades a low-intensity regional war in the Middle East has been ongoing, but it took Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 to bring this conflict into sharper focus." Thinking otherwise is folly.

Stop. Don't. Come back.

So the man yelled what as he tried to hack to death three New York City cops on New Year's Eve, 2022? Huh. Wonder why I never heard of this? We'll have no "national conversation," I guess. Tip to PJ Media.

Exactly! I've said that refusing to defeat an enemy with full military power is a safety net for an enemy who knows it has few reasons not to continue fighting beyond what one could consider prudent because it would risk defeat. If a draw is the worst outcome, why not take risks if you can avoid consequences?

Pouring concrete is fun and easy: "The Philippines will develop islands in the South China Sea that it considers part of its territory to make them more habitable for troops, Manila's military chief Romeo Brawner told reporters on Monday." That's my advice.

More Russian reliance on trade with China pushes Russia further into vassal status: "Trade between China and Russia hit a record high in 2023, official data from Beijing showed on Friday, as commerce with the United States fell for the first time in four years on the back of geopolitical tensions."

Via Instapundit, why is global warming automatically bad? I've asked how it is possible that we live in the ideal climate and must prevent it from going any higher no matter what the cost. I'd like to know what the ideal global temperature is before decided we must turn the dial down.

Honored to be their victim: "A measure by Bernie Sanders would order a report on whether Israel had committed human rights violations. It stands little chance of passage but reflects some Democrats’ resistance to providing unfettered aid." Berzerkers need goodlife.

Trump didn't stage a military coup while president and Milley secretly talked to the PRC--nonpartisan military, indeed--so this kind of bizarre worry is either projection or a sign of severe mental illness. Get a grip, people. This fear is delusional and justifies lawless behavior to stop him.

Learning from Ukrainian command post experience. It's hard to command and control without being a missile magnet.

How NATO surveillance aircraft from within NATO air space are "peering with electronic eyes across southern Ukraine and the Black Sea to Russian-occupied Crimea and beyond." They are an expensive and important part of Ukraine's drone successes.

If looks could kill--verified.

The Army prepares for Arctic warfare by training in Alaska and the Himalayan Mountains. Wait. What? Doesn't global warming mean the training should be in the Mojave Desert? Well, just in case (tip to PJ Media) the predictions are wrong, I approve.

How special forces and Ukrainians adapted Cossack practices to wage irregular warfare.

Israel's mobilization harms Israel's economy while the war rages. Also: "Israel uses conscription, mainly to provide trained reservists." I noted that Germany wants to revive conscription because it will quickly build a pool of reservists for a big war. Which is why the Treaty of Versailles had banned conscription.

Decoupling. 

How ESPN fluffed the on-air talent with fake Emmy awards. Tip to Instapundit.

Nice try. But I don't think Hollywood progressives feel shame. #MeTooExceptaJew Tip to Instapundit.

Russia likes to wave their nukes around: "Threatening a nuclear war of annihilation is one of Moscow’s favorite sports. High level Russian nuclear threats are commonplace." With their long border stripped of troops for Ukraine, the need for nukes is higher. Do they work?

Hell, the man could use the wrong pronoun in Britain and get away with it! Europeans spend too much time worrying about populist conservatives. 

WTAF: "The Houthis were emerging as Hamas’s hot new rival in the affections of bourgeois leftists." Tip to Instapundit.

The Navy may add hypervelocity rounds for 5" deck guns. I mentioned this initiative before and I've long wanted networked, long-range cannons for the fleet.

"Disaggregation" is the new term of art, apparently. I'm so old I remember "network-centric" warfare. For all I know there are other terms lost in the fog of pre-Internet publications.

Ukraine added explosive reactive armor to its Abrams tanks.

That report about Germany expecting Russia to invade was just a wargaming scenario. This isn't the first time I've read reports about "intelligence assessments" that turned out to be scenarios. I have a few scenarios, too.

A zipper control problem, I imagine. [LATER: I stand corrected?]

Iran fired “reckless and imprecise” shots across America's bow by purportedly striking terrorists in Syria and Iraq.

So the Houthis aren't deterred--and are inspired--because America uses cheap and easy aerial strikes that don't show commitment? That's funny. If we go in on the ground others say we are "falling into their trap." My view is that only ineffective force is counter-productive.

Foreign governments are already looking to lock in good deals now or put off talks for a year in anticipation of bad or good changes if Trump wins this year. I think the Europeans especially are in an embarrassing panic mode. Just who was in thrall to Putin, anyway?

Japan has a peace constitution so there's no way this has military applications: "EX-Fusion, an Osaka-based startup, plans to develop a ground-based laser system to help knock out space junk from the ground." Tip to Instapundit.

We're doomed! Admit failure and try to cope! Run away! We surely need to keep a number of allies in the line. But it is not futile. It's always nice if other countries defend our interests for us. I wouldn't count on it.

But it won't implement itself: "The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting alliances in recent memory, and it has the potential to be among the most consequential in the world in 2024."

Advice that should not need to be offered: "America’s Allies Shouldn’t Side With Hamas". Hamas delenda est.

Unclear on the concept: "Has [Israel] been proportional to the damage that Hamas inflicted on Israel?" Zakaria doesn't understand what "proportionality" requires. Blaming Netanyahu for the rabid opposition that distracted Israel is bizarre. Zakaria can't find his own buttocks with both hands and a GPS signal.

Apparently I was totally wrong to suspect that the Hamas tunnel network under Gaza was grossly exaggerated.

The price of fighting enemies: "U.S. Navy SEALs seized Iranian-made missile parts and other weaponry from a ship bound for Yemen's Houthi rebels in a raid last week that saw two of its commandos go missing, the U.S. military said Tuesday."

Fortunately no casualties and the ship remains seaworthy: "Yemen's Huthi rebels hit a US-owned cargo vessel with a missile on Monday, the US military said[.]" 

Ecuador: "The response from newly-elected President Daniel Noboa has been to designate 22 gangs as terrorist organisations and declare war, stating that Ecuador is in an 'internal armed conflict'. The country is now in a two-month state of emergency, with nightly curfews and the military patrolling the streets."

He's Mister Short-Term Memory! "Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Ukraine's statehood could suffer an "irreparable blow" if the pattern of the war continued, and Russia would never be forced to abandon the gains it had made." Putin set the pattern to inflict the irreparable blow!

God bless those still willing to fight for America: "The Army is overstaffed with infantry and armor lieutenants and needs some of them who were commissioned in 2021 to move into combat-support jobs, service officials announced Tuesday."

No separate Space Reserve: "The Space Force will become the nation’s first military service that allows troops to switch between full-time and part-time work without formally transferring to a Reserve component or the National Guard." I'm against a Space National Guard until we have a space territory.

A friend in need: "Army helicopters will deliver supplies to an earthquake-devastated area of central Japan, the U.S. military said Tuesday, less than a week after Tokyo announced it was not accepting help from other nations."

France intends to supply Ukraine with more Scalp cruise missiles and Caesar artillery systems. Also: "France is finalizing a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine similar to the one concluded by the U.K. last week."

This isn't large. But in Putin's Russia, is this the tip of the iceberg? "Russia has been hit by its biggest civil protest since Putin invaded Ukraine - with 10,000 taking to the streets and violent clashes breaking out over the jailing of an anti-war activist." But don't get your hopes up yet.

This was not public knowledge: "Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed at least two times in 2022 along their Himalayan frontier where they have been involved in a bitter standoff since 2020, according to new details that have emerged from the Indian Army's gallantry award citations."

You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You don't. 

"Bullets by the Billions".

Biden strikes to send signals: "Instead, the White House has taken a path of diplomacy über alles, attempting to make nice with everyone, including inveterate foes. This reduces American deterrence and allows bad actors free rein." Worse, Islamists on a mission from God must be killed--not deterred.

Homeland defense: "If the Pentagon would replace all of the aged interceptors at Fort Greely with 60 multi-warhead Next Generation Interceptors, and build a second such site of comparable size near the East Coast, U.S. defenders would be much more capable of protecting the homeland from nuclear attack."

Normally I don't use Ukrainian or Russian media. But: "A Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft came perilously close to colliding with a Ukrainian UAV in eastern Ukraine[.]" That would be a fluke. But could drones ambush enemy aircraft taking off from airfields?

Ship-killer: "The U.S. Army has successfully flight tested a new seeker that will help transform its new Precision Strike Missile short-range ballistic missile into weapon that can strike moving ships and enemy air defenses." Now China needs to review the kill chain from the receiving end.

Deterrence isn't working: "The U.S. military carried out preemptive strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen on Tuesday, destroying four anti-ship ballistic missiles that the rebels were ready to launch, according to five U.S. officials." Let's try relentless death and destruction. 

I mentioned in an earlier entry that Iran's strikes sent a message: "While they all seem to have had their own objectives, they clearly serve as a timely demonstration of Iran's ability to execute precision ballistic missile strikes close to and far beyond its borders." Note too that they were Revolutionary Guard weapons.

Are the various wars and challenges a rising war of civilizations? Perhaps. But I think the threats are splintered and could be fractured along their fault lines.

Because of China's near monopoly on EV batteries: "Rather than a spur to greater production, the absurdly named Inflation Reduction Act seems more like the China Resuscitation Act." Unless this is a clever ploy to get China to go down a dead end production strategy, this seems bad for America.

Civilizational suicide? "The obsession of NATO and the U.S. military in fighting climate change and white nationalism is borderline insane at a time when there are growing concerns about their war-fighting ability, from the quality of troops to the deteriorated industrial base that supports them."

Relatively few people, generally well off financially, can use EVs. Why anyone in cold climates would want one is beyond me. Tip to Instapundit.

Conservative protesters are hounded and hunted for years. Progressive protesters are tolerated. So the latter are just regime street muscle. Have no doubt this is Law Enforcement Theater. Tips to Instapundit. Also, yes, Obama/Biden loooves Iran's mullahs.

They chant, march, and riot in support of Hamas monsters. It isn't a shock that they are monstrous, too: "Anti-Israel protesters target NYC cancer hospital for ‘complicity in genocide’ as terrified Jewish resident says ‘I thought I was in Germany in 1939’[.]" Tip to Instapundit.

Maybe my semi-jest in an earlier entry is closer to reality than I imagined: "Capital is pouring into factories that make items such as electric vehicles, batteries and renewable-energy gear as Beijing looks for new sources of growth[.]" Is that really a solid foundation? 

Journalists write the first draft of history disinformation. Only for progressive causes, naturally. Why isn't the Left to blame for encouraging a dangerous trek to illegally enter America? You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You don't. Immigration is good--if done on our terms. Tip to Instapundit.

China is no longer the most populous country and its population decline is accelerating: "The latest data shows that the fertility rate is less than half of the replacement rate of 2.1, said He Yafu, an independent demographer based in Guangdong."

In the 1959-1960 swastika wave, the KGB "launched an ambitious disinformation campaign against West Germany carried out by Soviet secret agents in East Germany" by recruiting neo-Nazis. What is the origin of the current wave of pro-Hamas Jew hatred? Colleges sure prepared fertile ground. Via Instapundit.

Red Sea versus Strait of Hormuz oil traffic: "Some 7 million barrels of crude oil and products transit the Red Sea daily, compared to 18 million barrels that transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the trade analytics firm Kpler." That's progress. But Plan B is still too small. 

Form over function: "The European Commission has rebuked Germany for unilaterally pledging £6 billion in aid for Ukraine in the latest twist in a row between Paris and Berlin over support for Kyiv." The EU wants the authority to aid Ukraine more than it wants aid for Ukraine.

Of course, you realize this means war: "The change would break with decades of North Korean doctrine, under Kim’s father and grandfather, that sought to unify with the South through peaceful means, even while signaling a readiness for war." Wait. What? North Korea believes it's been peaceful up to now?

I worry this could be true but don't assume China's military is as good as it looks: "Historian and author Niall Ferguson on Tuesday predicted that China is most likely to win the war against the United States (US) over Taiwan[.]" But you need to consult the Definitions Section for "Victory".

Strategery: "An increasingly isolated Russia is now dependent on China for both its military and economic ends, the European Commission’s president said Tuesday." I think Putin wanted a short and glorious conquest of Ukraine mainly to break NATO so Russian could pivot to oppose China. Oops. 

NATO is increasingly aware that the Russian threat was not eliminated by winning the Cold War. The immediate question is whether NATO will fight the first campaign in Ukraine by helping Ukraine defeat the invasion.

Tensions: "Pakistan and Iran have both conducted strikes on each other’s territories in an unprecedented escalation of hostilities between the neighbors, at a time when tensions have risen sharply across the Middle East and beyond." Each attacked separatists. Pakistan's nukes didn't deter Iran from striking.

Don't misinterpret the idea the Black Sea is the center of gravity of the Winter War of 2022. The air and naval campaign pushing Russia's fleet, air defenses, logistics, and air power from Crimea is a supporting effort. This war will be decided by land campaigns over Crimea. 

If the the bulk fuel capacity of the old, leaky Red Hill storage facility in Hawaii is eliminated without an adequate replacement--and ships to move the fuel--operations across the vast Pacific will be impossible. Putting effing solar panels on the Pentagon is not going to solve that problem.

Say, about Putin's chess master brilliance: "Russia is now moving from [China's] trading partner to the lower tribute state status." Oops. I've never been impressed by Putin.

Monster.

Democrats privatized gross violations of the Constitution's protected civil liberties. And shame on the companies for going along. Tip to Instapundit.

North Korea made a lot of profit from Russia with their ammunition garage sale. How quickly can North Korea replenish their stocks? Is North Korea's declaration of South Korea as their primary enemy some chest-beating and poo flinging to obscure the inability to sustain artillery fire until ammo is replaced?

Smart Diplomacy®: "Why did the Biden administration delist the Houthis [as terrorists]? Brutal truth: It was following the Obama administration's delusion, believing a grand peace deal and nuclear weapons agreement with Iran's imperialist ayatollahs was possible." Obama/Biden loooves mullah-run Iran.

Tom Friedman believes the Palestinian question is the key to peace in the Middle East. Blinken agrees. Of course Blinken agrees. As for Friedman, I'm not saying you couldn't drown in a pool of that monster's wisdom. But you would have to be drunk and face down to do so. Naturally they're mingling in Davos.

Cause concerns: "The U.S. military fired another wave of ship- and submarine-launch missile strikes against Houthi-controlled sites Wednesday[.]"

China will need to worry that if it escalates its subliminal aggression against Filipino territory in the South China Sea that the Philippines could inflict an embarrassing loss on the PLA Navy: "The Philippines is still considering whether to acquire its first-ever submarine[.]"

The Navy has only confirmed use of expensive SM-2 missiles against Houthi missiles and drones. But 13 years ago:"“We had a specific tactic to go after [drones], with a specific munition that we could shoot out our gun,” [Vice Admiral] McLane said. Gun-fired? Good.

The defense-industrial base gets attention: "A week after releasing its first industrial strategy, the Pentagon is sprinting to meet with companies on how to put it into action." Good. We have an imperative need for that.

DEI destroys excellence and cohesion in our military academies. The commie cadet was a canary in the coal mine. But we ignored that warning.

After a couple years of restrained help for Ukraine, France seems to be stepping up. I'll guess Macron hopes Trump will open up opportunities for him through the EU.

Speculation about a Russian winter offensive. There will be winter attacks. But will it rise to the level of an "offensive"? Doesn't seem like Russia has the men or materiel for that.

About that French artillery initiative I noted earlier: "France and the United States will lead a coalition of 23 countries to provide artillery and ammunition to Ukraine, French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Jan. 18."

Exactly: "If Biden wants peace, he needs to stop punishing our allies while rewarding Iran[.]" Why Democrats oddly looove mullah-run Iran is beyond me.

Army basic training. I went through it in my mid-20s. My advice is be able to do 30 good push ups before getting there and be healthy enough to rapidly gear up to running two miles. Don't worry, everyone finds it tough. You'll make it. Focus on making it to the next meal. Count the end of each day as a victory. Repeat.

Peace constitution through strength: "Japan signed a deal with the United States on Thursday to purchase up to 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of its ongoing military buildup in response to increased regional threats." China effed up.

Environmentalist-based-urban planning is a failure--except when it is a plot by the wealthy to keep the icky upwardly mobile middle class away from the areas they staked out first. Tip to Instapundit. In my fraternity I once claimed my major was "inter-urban development" because it sounded especially BS-like.

U.S. Navy planes conducted a fifth strike against Houthi anti-ship missile assets.

The Philippines is willing to speak softly: "China and the Philippines agreed to improve maritime communication and to properly manage conflicts and differences through friendly talks in regards to issues around the South China Sea, their foreign ministries said in a statement."

The post-October 7th resolve to crush Hamas is faltering rather quickly: "Rifts are emerging among top Israeli officials over the handling of the war against Hamas in Gaza."

Nice in peacetime, but they'd be vulnerable to attack during war: "The United States and Japan are looking to make a deal for Japanese shipyards to regularly overhaul and maintain U.S. Navy warships so they can stay in Asian waters ready for any potential conflict." Ultimately we need more capacity in CONUS.

Claiming Trump's failure to stop a surge of illegal migrants in 2019 ignores that Democrats fought border security tooth and nail and that progressives encouraged illegal migration. We don't need to "overhaul" laws to control the border. We need the confidence that it is good to control the terms of immigration.

Burke destroyers get the "Dad Bod" look with upgrades.

Putin is reaping what he sowed: "90,000 [NATO] allied troops are slated to take part in Steadfast Defender, which would make it the largest gathering of troops for an exercise on the Continent in decades." Chess master, indeed. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

It needs to be said: "Argentina’s newly elected libertarian president, Javier Milei, has publicly berated the growing influence of Western ‘Neo-Marxists’ at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum." Face it, Davos is Epstein's Mountain plus Leftist struggle sessions (tip to The Morning Briefing).

Getting Iranian missiles to Russia. 

Those people didn't live in harmony with the rainforest: "Researchers have detected a cluster of lost 2,500-year-old cities at the foothills of the Andes in the Amazon rainforest." The jungle re-conquered the cities. I read, in 1491, that Spanish conquerors destroyed records of pre-Colombian people. Via Instapundit.

Xi's shiny military is rife with problems: "China recently purged or removed from their positions over a dozen senior officers of the army, navy, and air force. The government conducted an inspection of the forces the purged officers commanded and found numerous deficiencies." An inflated view is dangerous.

It's actually kind of funny that fear of Trump seems to be getting Europeans to step up for Ukraine: "[The] European Union’s decision on additional aid for Ukraine, worth 50 billion euros ($54.43 billion), remains pending." That's working better than polite requests from Biden.

Tie the serfs to a tiny plot of land: "Opposition to car-oriented suburban development, notes historian Robert Bruegmann, reminded him of the Duke of Wellington’s complaint that trains would 'only encourage the common people to move around needlessly.'" EVs limit your radius to your extension cord.

Hezbollah's dilemma: "behind Nasrallah’s warning that Israel would regret it if it attacked Lebanon, Hezbollah’s half-hearted retaliation to Israel’s lethal firepower betrayed its reluctance for all-out war." But at some point it may believe  losing a war is better than losing its claim to protect Palestinians from Israel.

A reminder that woke lips sink ships.

Ah, just friends we haven't made yet! "Yemen’s Shia rebels, led by the Houthi tribe, have used their large stockpile of Iranian missiles to block access to the Suez Canal. This capability developed over the last decade as the rebels launched attacks on more distant targets." They have their own recon capability, too.

Making warships run with fewer sailors. But what about fighting and damage control. Success in that with fewer sailors remains unproven.

Hahaha. Buh bye. Tip to Instapundit.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat: "The U.S. on Friday launched a sixth round of strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, a U.S. defense official confirmed to The Hill." Destruction--not deterrence--should be the goal. Even the angriest goat lover without anti-ship missiles can't attack ships with missiles.

Ouch: "An investigation is under way after two UK warships collided at a port in Bahrain, the Royal Navy says." Every Royal Navy ship is precious these days.

I liked it better when our elites liked America: "The nation’s ruling class holds deeply authoritarian opinions widely divorced from the rest of the American electorate, finds a survey out this week." They think we have too much freedom. Go to Hell. Tip to Instapundit.

Israel creates more good Revolutionary Guard leaders: "Four senior members of Iran's security forces have been killed in a suspected air strike on the Syrian capital."

How shoplifters "over-fished" when Democrats lifted their catch limit. And those Democrats are oblivious about the reason for the inevitable outcome, preferring the comforting accusation of racism. These people put on their shoes and socks in that order, don't they?

I'd just like to note that the esteemed representative should be torn down for evoking the fight to preserve slavery with her name honoring the confederate general, Robert E. Lee.

So sad that "long Covid" memory loss at Axios is still running rampant.

Don't be silly, Progressives know all Moslems look alike: "For while woke activists in the West might still speak of Muslims as a bloc, if not a blob, elsewhere in the world Muslims are at war." As if members of a victim class have agency! I touched on this attitude versus Islamic world diversity in this post.

At some level I worry that seizing Russian assets to help Ukraine fight the Russian invasion undermines the global financial system. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an assault on the UN system of unified resistance to conquering aggressors. So financial seizure is the lesser of two evils.

This author is a moron. Or maybe just on the other side. He claims America's "technology and aviation" effort to stop Houthi missile attacks on civilian ships will "backfire". But the Houthi threat is an aerial technology effort vulnerable to countering technology. Just another "Let the Wookie win" faux analysis.

Russia has used a massive Soviet-era anti-ship missile to attack a land target in Ukraine.

Make sure the fortifications are built in depth: "Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have approved the construction of defensive installations alongside their borders with Russia and Belarus, which will include a network of bunkers." Stopping the Russians at the border invites the defenders' destruction.

Cost overruns for the new Sentinel ICBM. Sigh. We really need new, reliable nuclear missiles for deterrence.

Automaker-government collusion to grossly inflate electric vehicle "mileage" efficiency. Tip to Instapundit.

This is sad. A beautiful woman entered uncanny valley via excessive plastic surgery. I would not have known they were the same person just looking at the pictures. Something is broken inside to do this to yourself. Tip to Instapundit.

Iran is our enemy: "The US military's Central Command said an Iran-backed militia targeted the Al Asad airbase, which hosts American troops, with ballistic missiles and rockets on Saturday evening." We intercepted most of the missiles, apparently. Potential American TBI casualties plus one Iraqi wounded.

I remain confused about the level of casualties in the Winter War of 2022. The numbers don't seem to add up. One problem is that different sources claim different types of casualties. I'd like to see KIA, WIA, and non-combat deaths and injuries. And I've never seen POW numbers, let alone MIA.

I continue to be really confused about some conservatives suddenly unwilling to resist Russia; and about liberals in general suddenly hard core anti-Russia warriors. 

Too little value; too much cost: "Of 100 random freshmen enrolling in college today, 40 will not graduate. Of the remaining 60 that earn a degree in six years, 20 will end up chronically underemployed." I graduated from Michigan in 7.5 years, borrowing under $3,000. It worked out well. Via Instapundit.

About that Ukrainian Bradley duel with a Russian T-90: "Simply blinding the tank by destroying its sensors can result in a mission kill, leaving it repairable but useless on the battlefield, too." That 25mm bun showed there is more than one way to skin a cat.

On the road to destruction: "U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) confirmed Saturday yet another airstrike on Houthi weaponry in the region of the Red Sea." Keep hitting Houthi units that have anti-ship or related recon systems.

Ghosting China

China has fewer friends on Taiwan and the trend is not good for persuading Taiwan to accept Peking's rule. Does that mean military force and all its uncertainties is the only alternative for China to take control of Taiwan?

Taiwan becomes Taiwanese:

If China enjoys no support among Taiwan’s political parties, there’s little prospect a China-friendly president will take up residence in the Presidential Office in Taipei following this month’s elections. Without a China-friendly president and legislature, China stands vanishingly little chance of achieving its paramount goal of gaining control of the island without fighting. It will have to deploy armed force, with all the hazards and costs warfare entails. 

The author says China bungled by bullying Taiwan. But then goes on to say that the rising generation lacks the ties to China that the 1949 refugees from the Chinese Civil War had. Those ties initially wanted to "return to the mainland" to reverse the civil war loss. But many pined for any unification--even under CCP control, if necessary.

So the shift in Taiwanese sentiment might have been out of China's control regardless of their alternating smiling charm offensives and blustering military threats.

And while China might have to use force, if that inspires fear even if it doesn't inspire solidarity, China might win with far less of a fight than we hope. As I wrote, arming Taiwan is the least of the problems involved in defending Taiwan.

And if that fear spreads widely enough among Taiwan's civilian and military leadership, being feared might do more for China than being loved by the Taiwanese. China might get that voluntary submission without a fight that Taiwan fears it will lose.

If Taiwan won't fight, that won't be good for Taiwan's future given the stakes for America and our allies.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Fleet Numbers Matter

The Navy needs numbers to fight for control of the sea. Attrition requires enough surviving ships to exercise control.

This author argues for an offshore patrol vessel (OPV) for the Navy to get numbers. 

The USN really needs the OPV capability. Having them would better balance our fleet so they can execute those missions we don’t have the spare capacity to send our over-loved DDGs … and soon FFGs to do.

That makes sense because as the author argues, the forthcoming Constellation frigate is going to be a capable warship with shrunken capabilities like our Burke missile destroyers (DDGs). They are not the cheap Perry-class frigates of the Cold War despite the same designation. Tip to Instapundit who has a couple more links on the issue.

But about those frigates, I am not encouraged about Navy expansion efforts thus far: 

The first Constellation-class guided-missile frigate will deliver at least a year late due in large part to workforce shortfalls at the Wisconsin yard where it’s built[.]

Well.

I've wanted numbers for a long time, having noted how the small warships have disappeared from the fleet with grade inflation. The LCS intended to get numbers that I cited in that old post failed spectacularly.

But I've consistently argued for more numbers. I've hoped the Navy recognized that. But the Navy refusal to build more but less capable ships was essentially a decision to pick a low number.

I want more ships to survive combat as we shift from projecting power ashore in a permissive environment to fighting to control the seas. Yet I also recognize that because our ships must sail across oceans just to reach patrol areas, we have minimum sizes for ships that our continental allies don't face when they reach their patrol areas almost literally after leaving port.

Defenders of the Navy say it has twice the tonnage of China's navy. So we are clearly superior. But how much of that tonnage is from 10 super carriers? How long will that "advantage" last when the shooting starts?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Don't Sink, Don't Shoot, What Do You Do?

I'm not against Marines helping the Navy fight the Chinese navy. But the Marines are over-focused on that single threat. Tired of being a "second Army" in the war on terror, the Marines have decided to be a second (land-based) Navy.

I wrote before the official shift to create more deployable Marine Littoral Regiments, arguing in Proceedings for Navy APDs to move around small Marine (which I called Marine Expeditionary Companies) and Navy ground troop anti-ship detachments in the western Pacific:

The Marines have long been the most significant "allied" army to fight alongside the Army in expeditionary warfare. This shifts the Marines more to helping the Navy deploy, sustain, and fight.

I am on board attempts to get the Marines to adapt to A2/AD by spreading out in smaller units more useful for raids or small missions, as I wrote about in this article in the Naval Institute Proceedings (USNI membership required to access it online)--at least until naval and air dominance is achieved.

The idea of coastal defense is also an idea I'm in favor of the Navy or Marines adopting.I thought that in place of MEUs as the building block that Marine Expeditionary Companies (MECs) could be that basic unit for disaggregated operations under A2/AD threat. And some could be used for other purposes in support of expeditionary advanced base operations[.]

But are the Marines hyper-optimized for anti-ship warfare against the Chinese navy at the expense of other missions globally? 

"My biggest concern is does this turn the Marine Corps into a niche force at the expense of its global response capability?" said Sen. Dan Sullivan (R., Alaska), who serves as a colonel in the Marine Corps Reserve. 

That's my worry. What other threat outside of China requires that kind of anti-ship net in the rest of the world? We still need Marines to assault enemies from the sea. Or at least land early in a fight in a permissive environment for the first battle of a war, as I argued long ago starting on page 38 in Joint Force Quarterly.

Congress wants to know if the Marine Corps FD-2030 changes are correct.

Well the global response issue is not the only worry:

Is the Marine Corps Expeditionary Advance Base Operations (EABO) concept essentially replicating the Japanese experience from World War II American island hopping operations? Doesn't moving the Marine units or supplying them close to China assume friendly sea control that EABO is trying to achieve?

And one problem is that the Marines added too many capabilities that seem to make the logistics problem worse. And given the focus of the change, it seems like the MLRs thus far have damned few anti-ship weapons.

I think the Marines could deploy more anti-ship weapons with fewer Marines that are dedicated to the MLRs now. Indeed, as I wrote in that Proceedings article, I'd prefer it if the Navy Expeditionary Combat Command [name fixed] formed the bulk of the anti-ship detachments, which would be augmented with Marine security detachments.

Yes, not all Marines will be organized as MLRs. But all of the Marines are being thinned out and lightened up. Unable to be a second Navy they will also be unable to be a second Army. I mean, the service where "every Marine is a rifleman" has downgraded the value of shooting rifles:

The last class of Marine Scout Snipers is scheduled to graduate on Dec. 15, marking the end of the 0317 MOS and a long tradition of producing some of the deadliest snipers on the battlefield. 

I eagerly await the results of the Marine experiments to find out what their smaller and lighter infantry battalions can do in combat.

Those experiments and Congressional questions are evidence that the debate about Marine roles and organization really isn't over, right?  What will the Marines actually be able to do in a war?

Subtle innuendos suggest not enough. There must be something inside those units.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Siren Song of "Clean" Alternatives to Ground War

There is no magical way to wage war without pain. Just make sure you wage it for good reasons. And reject the charlatans who promise silver non-bullets. 

Remember when Twitter was the magic weapon to defeat despots? Until Elon Musk bought it, it became a tool to control people--not free them. 

Don't get caught up in the idea that terrorists who use new means to communicate have discovered a new way of winning in the real world.

Remember Netwar that promised to make expensive militaries obsolete?

What's missing most of all from the U.S. military's arsenal is a deep understanding of networking, the loose but lively interconnection between people that creates and brings a new kind of collective intelligence, power, and purpose to bear -- for good and ill. 

Behold the loose but lively interconnections! People write this stuff--and don't intend it to be satire! 

As I said about netwar in this post that nearly drove me to pounding my thumb with a ball-peen hammer to distract me from the pain in my skull:

Here is the biggest and loopiest idea. Ah, "netwar." Recall the first celebrated [practitioners] of netwar--the Mexican Zapatistas in 1994. You remember them, they netwarred their way into power, seizing Mexico City. No? Then they succeeded in creating an independent state. No? Then they convinced the Mexican government to spend more there. Wow. This example of so-called netwar was a guy with a colorful name, some college education, an internet connection, and a bunch of ill-armed indigenous peoples following him. Add an adoring press and presto! Netwar!

The Zapatistas disappeared faster than you can say AOL discs. Where are they now?

Members and supporters of the Zapatista indigenous rebel movement celebrated the 30th anniversary of their brief armed uprising in southern Mexico on Monday even as their social base erodes and violence spurred by drug cartels encroaches on their territory.

Oooh. Scary. Their plight may be sad. But they didn't find a magical route to victory.

Remember when "flat" terrorist organizations would be immune to our traditional organizations to fight them? In fact, terrorists looked more like GM and not the imagined new kind of collective intelligence and power that would run rings around us.

Of course it isn't just these delusional visionaries. Sometimes we get calls from inside the house that air power can win wars alone. First it was just with dumb bombs when that's all the old planes had. Then nukes. Then precision weapons. Or maybe ill-defined effects! This time, for sure!

And I won't let the Army off the hook. Remember when the only issue was making the Army light enough to deploy overseas? Victory was assured once there!

Nor should we forget the worship of Russia's so-called new form of warfare! Hybrid warfare, indeed. Get a room. 

And China got in the action, too, saying the nature of warfare had changed--until they built a military that looks suspiciously like America's.

War is Hell. Prepare for that rather than thinking we can imagine ways to refine it so it is antiseptic and pain-free--and home by Christmas. Wars tend not to end by Christmas.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Ethiopia Returns to the Sea

Ethiopia returns to the sea decades after it lost control of Eritrea. What will Ethiopia do with that access?

Interesting: 

Somalia has described an agreement that landlocked Ethiopia made with the self-declared republic of Somaliland over sea access as an act of "aggression".

Somaliland seceded from Somalia more than 30 years ago, but is not recognised internationally.

It said that Ethiopia agreed to recognise its independence at some point in the future in exchange for military access to the coast.

I mentioned Ethiopia's desire:

Abiy has more territorial ambitions: "Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed on October 13, 2023, that his landlocked country has a right to demand maritime access to a Red Sea port from its neighbors in the Horn of Africa — first through diplomatic means, he said, or by force if necessary." 

I was skeptical that force would be effective. Yet Ethiopia did say it wanted diplomacy to achieve it. Somaliland was the diplomatic partner.

Did not see this path coming. Should have. Somalia is not a country but a territory--so I have no problem with a deal between two governments that can control and run their territories. People spend so much time complaining about Africa's borders drawn by colonialists. But when Africans draw borders reflecting reality they get condemned. Here's the source of the map and a quick brief on Somaliland. 

Somaliland gets paid (by getting a stake in Ethiopia's airline--the largest in Africa--in the 50-year agreement) and backing for independence from Somalia and, I assume as a byproduct, for favorably settling territorial disputes with fellow secessionist region, Puntland. Still, the details of the deal aren't public.

ISW addressed the deal, and brought up angles that didn't occur to me:

The port deal has severely strained Somali-Ethiopian relations and increased anti-Ethiopian sentiment in southern Somalia, which will likely weaken regional counterterrorism cooperation and energize al Shabaab. Ethiopia’s African Red Sea neighbors in Djibouti, Egypt, and Eritrea will likely view an Ethiopian base as a threat, while the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) strong ties with the Ethiopian government will strengthen the Emiratis’ position in its regional rivalry with other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Also, "Ethiopia also pays at least $1 billion in port fees annually to Djibouti." Ethiopia thought it was too expensive and Djibouti wouldn't lower its prices. Will Ethiopia just start the process over with Somaliland eventually raising prices? Or will Ethiopia eventually try to draw Somaliland into Ethiopia's orbit? Perhaps even annexing it?

Still, some tensions may be the result of false claims that Ethiopia will control--rather than lease--port facilities. Unless the Houthis have given the world enough to think about without getting worked up about this situation. Maybe Somaliland can leverage a role in blocking the Houthi to maneuver through the opposition to independence:

Perhaps it is now Somaliland’s moment. The self-governing region consisting of the northern third of Somalia is a perfect, elegant solution. Briefly independent in 1960, the U.S. recognized it. Its subsequent marriage to Somalia failed, but it divorced before Somalia could drag it into state failure.

Lastly, about that navy Ethiopia wants. Will Ethiopia be a partner to keep the Red Sea and Horn of Africa sea lines of communication open--and oppose Iran? Or will Ethiopia focus on Egypt as a rival in the GERD Nile River dam dispute?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.