I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The Soldier is a Weapon
In case you missed it on Substack: American and Russian Nukes
In case you missed it on Substack: Army Transformation
In case you missed it on Substack: Thucydides Didn't Have the Distance We Have
A U.S. company linked a F-35 to a quadcopter targeting drone. The "test involved using the quadcopter to illuminate ground targets with a laser designator, enabling the stealth fighter to release and guide four inert GBU-12 Paveway II bombs with accuracy." Options expand when sensor and shooter are separated.
Israelis protest ("mostly peacefully"!) to end the war with Hamas; Palestinians get murdered for calling for Hamas to end its rule of Gaza. Tips to Instapundit.
I've been aware of the issue for decades but never knew if it is hype or real: "While EMPs are very real, they’re not the magic wands that can bring an entire country and its military to its knees."
Ukraine sank a Russian cargo ship importing weapons from Iran in the Caspian Sea with a drone.
Making good jihadis: "U.S. forces carried out a series of airstrikes against al-Shabab in Somalia at the start of the month, the latest escalation of the American involvement in the country." Escalation? No. Supply and demand? Yes.
LOL. Yeah, that's Africa's problem. I say they can use whatever map presentation tool they want.
The Navy will soon no longer have cruisers, a class of ship it's had for 120 years. But don't worry, new "destroyers" will have much greater tonnage. A rose by any other name. Alright, I understand cruisers now have command and control capabilities destroyers don't have. I'm sure some will squeeze that in.
Drones helped achieve this: "So far Russia has lost over a million soldiers dead and wounded and another million soldiers and military age men who fled the country. Ukrainian losses have been fewer than 100,000 dead, about ten percent of them civilians." But drones can't close with and destroy the enemy.
To repeat, Spider's Web was a flashy special forces operation and not a capability for day-to-day combat: "It took Ukrainians nearly two years to plan what they called Operations Spider Web."
China has so much to thank Russia for: "NATO nations providing Ukraine with [air defense missiles] have gained a lot of experience in using these weapons against modern missiles. That means if the United States is ever at war with China their missile defenses will be much more capable."
Ukraine's surface drones have grown in capabilities.
Will the West neutralize Russia's dark fleet of tankers moving the product? "The Russian economy and war effort in Ukraine is financed by oil and other energy exports."
Is France's guiding role in its former African colonies--Françafrique--over? If they have progressed enough to take care of their security, that's great. If they count on Russia for security, France will be back.
Russia is counting on its new frigate design to be the core of the Russian fleet. Nooo!!! Don't settle for mere frigates, Russia!
The European Union's Von der Leyen's presence at the White House meeting about the Winter War of 2022 seems like a symbolic reward to her for signing the US-EU trade deal allowing her to pretend the EU has sovereign power.
An ARG/MEU? Really? "The Navy and Marine Corps deployed thousands of sailors and Marines to the southern Caribbean on Friday in support of anti-drug cartel operations." Plus aircraft, a submarine, and a surface warship. Just going to observe that Venezuela is nearby.
China is working on a crewed tilt-rotor aircraft. More grains of sand to build the PLA beachhead.
Ukraine has developed a "new cruise missile called Flamingo, which reportedly has a range of 1,864 miles (3,000 kilometers)[.]" There is a debate about the design origins. But it seems pretty basic.
Can AI restructure longstanding command structures? Doing more with a broader range of assets with fewer staff and being able to displace quickly would be great. Will AI expand span of control?
Will the people decide a different government is necessary? "Currently only about 40 percent of Iranians consider themselves Moslems and most adhere to other faiths, including the ancient Iranian Zoroastrianism." And if so, will enough security forces defend the mullah government with violence?
We need to do more: "Over the last decade, the United States has been prosecuting, prosecuting and convicting a growing number of Chinese born men, and a few women, conspiring to commit or actually carrying out economic and other espionage in the United States."
Is this aimed at Israel or is Israel just the convenient excuse? "The Jordanian Armed Forces-Arab Army (JAF) will reinstate conscription starting February 2026[.]"
It amuses me that so many in the West are shocked the trans-Atlantic alliance remains firm. If you'd listened to me rather than the clown show media here and in Europe you'd know better. It has always been about re-balancing defense efforts. Stop panicking yourself with fantasy and hallucination.
LOL: "Repeated foreign occupation is not the answer. Haiti can address its own problems." Have fun storming the castle!
I'm always amused when a ruler lacking power to achieve ambitions is credited with having a "long game." This time it is Erdogan and Turkey. Usually it is China wrongly credited.
The U.S. is contesting Chinese efforts to gain influence in Pacific island nations. I say hop on the islands before we are forced to island-hop.
My earlier hunch was correct: "The United States is deploying three Aegis guided-missile destroyers to the waters off Venezuela as part of President Donald Trump’s effort to combat threats from Latin American drug cartels[.]" That's impressive firepower for dealing with cartels.
CRS report to Congress on U.S.-Taiwan relations.
The Army wants industry help for the "Air-Ground Littoral, which it describes as the increasingly drone-filled area between the ground and a 'few thousand' feet up." I called that region the "brown skies" (with the Air Force in the higher blue skies) in this older Army article advocating small fighter drones.
The Philippines is the front line of Australia's defense line: "Around 3,600 personnel from the Philippines, Australia, Canada and the U.S. kicked off the second iteration of the Australian-Philippine drills last week in Palawan."
I mentioned the report before, but it stands repeating: "Replacing old-fashioned firepower with a purely drone force would be a blunder." Tanks and the forces supporting them must evolve, of course.
It's no Kuznetsov, but it will have to do for Putin's quest for a Red sports car: "For the first time since 1997, the Russian Navy’s nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov is finally back in the water and moving under its own power, after years of repair work and modernization." The crew is relieved.
Italy's planned bridge connecting Sicily to the mainland will probably count toward the NATO defense spending target. Well, yeah. I thought that was the whole point of the final 1.5 percentage points of the NATO 5% of GDP pledge. And I still don't know how America fulfills the pledge.
We have a Navy shipbuilding crisis. And that applies more generally to all ship construction.
What alternate universe of immunity from consequences do the Russians live in?
Why is the U.S. dumping money into updated old F-22s? Because they are still excellent, are what we have right now, and if war breaks out soon we can't wait for the 6th generation F-47? But I'm just spitballing.
I hope we didn't just lose an LPD.
China's nukes. Add that into America's and Russia's arsenals.
Not a shock that Cuban mercenaries are fighting for Russia.
Russia shows no interest in actual peace with a sovereign Ukraine. Or anyone west of Ukraine, as I've warned. I'm just tired of Moscow's BS.
China's subliminal offensive in the South China Sea is getting more overt.
Oh, FFS: "Iranian-backed groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen, use Western cellphones to track merchant ships in the Red Sea by pinging them for their GPS locations. Even on warships, where communications are encrypted, sailors’ phones are not." That's their ISR?
Every Marine a rifleman drone operator? I'm just not seeing the Marine Corps laser-like focus on seizing islands from enemies that Strategypage sees.
Will putting an Admiral in charge of Norfolk Naval Shipyard solve its problems? But even at peak efficiency, America still needs more shipyards.
Is Russia losing? Maybe. I do think Russia is building a Potemkin Victory facade to persuade the West to give up. But I won't say Russia can't win.
Are the Russian people willing to submit? Or perhaps more relevant, are distant republics going to secede? "Russia is increasingly becoming a full police state. New laws reinstate many of the arbitrary powers once held by Soviet police and intelligence officials."
Israel called up 60,000 reservists to finally take Gaza to eliminate Hamas.
Extending helicopter usefulness for "close" air support: "Upgrades to the UH-60 Black Hawks will allow the helicopters to carry and deploy the Army's 'launched effects' drones, expected to field in 2026."
Is China entering the long-range bomber arena?
North Korea built a nuclear missile base as far from South Korea and Japan as it could. But since it is vulnerable to China taking it over, is a ship-based nuclear force meant to blunt that threat?
I would have bet it was shoddy Russian maintenance practices: "A Ukrainian man was arrested in Italy suspected of coordinating the 2022 attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines[.]"
It offends me as a history and political science major that people don't understand the 3/5 rule. Slave owners wanted 5/5, that is each slave unable to vote still counted as a person for deciding how many Electoral College votes a state got. Free states wanted 0/5. 3/5 was a compromise to keep America united.
Agni-5: "India has said it successfully test-fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile that, when operational, should be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to any part of China."
Arguing that Somalia's continued state unity is vital for regional stability is just deluded given the past 3+ decades actual experience of pretending Somalia is a unified state.
How Africa became the global epicenter of ISIL. Give America's war on terror that much credit. Sad for Africa but keeping the Middle East from being the epicenter is actually progress. But that's why AFRICOM is needed. But I suppose AFRICOM did get The AFRICOM Queen.
Friction: "Russia and China had well-delineated roles in Central Asia — with Russia emphasizing political and security aspects, while China pursued economic cooperation — China is [now] showing signs of both becoming a more political actor and being more proactive in the security arena." The flag follows trade.
China sets its sights on East Timor. Mindanao was unavailable for comment.
If America helps Ukraine with long-range missiles, Russia's Kerch Strait bridge might finally be dropped, complicating Russian logistics to its Crimea and western conquests; and Russia may find its European refineries getting hit more often.
Battling the 155mm shell shortage with a new production facility.
China deployed armed small boats around Second Thomas Shoal. You may recall that eastern West Berlin.
The long line of American heavy bombers. Oddly the B-1 is not mentioned.
The X-37B returned to space for missions unknown. Sure, some are announced. But come on ... But space enthusiasts, allies, and enemies will no doubt have a go at tracking it.
I assume this was a Delta Force-led operation: "U.S. troops killed a suspected senior member of the Islamic State group, or ISIS, during an Aug. 19 raid in northern Syria, defense officials have announced."
Did Trump "botch" the chance for "peace" in the Winter War of 2022? No. This type of analysis assumes that only the U.S. has agency and everyone else passively waits for America to put forward the right plan or use the right words to move the lever of their decisions. Russia doesn't want peace.
The fire-damaged LPD USS New Orleans sailed into an Okinawa port under its own power.
So other than American power projection forces, military facilities, and missile defenses, Alaska is neglected? "Despite Alaska’s undeniable role in the Indo-Pacific, providing a launch pad for force projection and missile defense, for three decades America has let its Pacific Arctic flank erode."
What if Russians unhappy with the bloody and costly war assassinate Putin and blame Ukraine? Or blame NATO?
The same was said for giving Hitler the Sudetenland: "For peace in Ukraine, Russia needs 'security guarantees' too " How far West?! Should free NATO promise not to appeal to oppressed Russians? Face it, Russia needs security guarantees against China--not NATO. This is why Responsible Statecraft is useless.
The ISIL threat to Europe is rising.
The problem with bomb damage assessment. So I'm open-minded about what Midnight Hammer achieved. Especially since I think Iran has a major path to nuclear weapons we don't discuss.
The complaint that Trump didn't arrest Putin when he arrived in Alaska is insane. You don't arrest the leader of a country with that many nukes.
How long could America cope with similar attacks on our refineries? "Ukrainian long-range strikes campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, Western sanctions, and struggling refinery modernization efforts in tandem are impacting Russia's fuel reserves and could threaten oil revenues."
Iran retains a willing proxy: "A security source confirmed to the 'Post' that Israel is carrying out airstrikes in Sanaa in response to Friday’s missile launch by the Houthis toward Israeli territory."
Jihadis are in full murder mode as Nigeria is forced to act: "Nigeria's military has killed 35 jihadists in a series of air strikes near its north-eastern border with Cameroon, it said in a statement." Just 35 is a rookie number of "good jihadis."
That's a BS red herring concession: "The Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Ali Larijani, is the leading official to lower the country's uranium enrichment to 20% purity, down from 60%." Especially if the alternative path is being implemented.
To be clear, this is being done to prevent Palestinians from getting into Egypt: "Egyptian officials are concerned about the IDF taking over Gaza City, and fearing the humanitarian and military repercussions of any such invasion."
Is it just me, or is this story on Israel's recent campaign against Iran a bunch of gee whiz terminology and gobbledygook that doesn't really say anything? Mind you, I'd expect the Israelis not to explain any details as a basic security practice. So maybe the smoke and mirrors show is deliberate.
The surge of hits from Vietnam for over a month finally receded. This seemingly indexed my content (many times over); and I'm getting noticeably more hits--but some are indexing the site--from South America and Asia. Welcome! And what's up with the Russian speaker in Cuba?
