We are on the way to seeing low-altitude "brown skies" small drone campaigns running parallel to traditional air force campaigns in the blue skies.
Russia is expanding its drone production and strikes on Ukrainian cities:
Russia's increasing missile and drone production will likely allow Russia to continue conducting increasingly larger strikes against Ukraine during Fall 2025, and ISW previously assessed that Russian forces may be able to strike Ukraine with up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025 should the current pattern of growth in nightly Russian drone usage continue.
Ukraine is responding with fighter drones:
Zelensky says Ukraine aims to deploy at least 1,000 interceptor drones daily.
That will take time. And they are consumable suicide drones rather than the reusable fighter drones I advocated in Army magazine years ago. Yet Russia is aiming to use interceptor drones, too.
Will we see aerial campaigns of Russian attack and decoy drones escorted by fighter drones that are contested by Ukrainian ground-based systems and fighter drones?
Drone versions of manned electronic warfare planes to support aircraft in penetrating enemy defenses are already in use by Ukraine. And this post on Ukrainian drone usage mentions retransmitting drones. Which seems like a form of aerial refueling in that it extends drone range.
And as the numbers of drones in the air climb, will there be opportunities for counter-air operations striking the crowded launch sites of the drones massed for the 1,000-drone raids?
Will the more complicated nature of the low-altitude air campaign lead Ukraine's Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Force to get a "Victory Through (tiny) Air Power" attitude and lose interest in their mission of supporting ground troops? It's a well-trod evolution.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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