You have to leave the planet to get good news about America these days, it seems: FOB Jezero Crater expands capabilities. Tip to Instapundit.
The 405,000-year orbital cycle. Interesting.
Is obesity the largest risk factor in dying from the Xi Jinping Flu virus?
I should note that while India's Xi Jinping Flu infections seem really high, India does have a huge population. Are cases and deaths out of line on a per capita basis from what we've seen in other countries?
I've been watching a show on TV. I think it reflects police shows in general. Characters casually toss off left-wing commentary on occasion. Yet the officers routinely abuse and torture criminal suspects for information.
Russia exploits Western refusal to admit that Russia is already at war with Ukraine; Russia did not create an actual invasion force with logistics to back deployments; Russia blamed Ukraine and NATO for the crisis; Russia gained an effective blockade of Ukraine's Sea of Azov coast; and Russia left equipment that can be used in the future. I'll add that Russia may have used the Ukraine crisis as a red herring to gain effective control of Belarus.
Defense spending dominance by America is over-stated by accounting rules, local purchasing power parity, and foreign deceit. Russia and China combined spend more than America on defense, even without figuring out hidden spending. I'll add the distance America needs to reach a fight and sustain the fight. And our preference and ability to spend money rather than lives in war that adds to our costs.
The chairman of the joint chiefs of staff doesn't know if Afghanistan's army will hold: "'On the one hand you get some really dramatic, bad possible outcomes, and on the other hand you get a military that stays together and a government that stays together,' Milley said. 'Which one of these options becomes reality at the end of the day, we frankly don't know yet and we have to wait and see how things develop over the summer. There's a lot of variables to this, and it's not 100% predictable.'" That's it. It might be fine. It might be disaster. Our withdrawal increases the chance of the latter, I think. But who knows? I said exactly the same thing when we left Iraq in 2011. And that turned out badly until we re-intervened.
The U.S. wants to restore rare earths production capabilities.
I don't understand the rush by pro-Trump conservatives to demonize and expel Republican senators who aren't 100% pro-Trump. These conservatives do know the Senate is tied 50-50, right? In my mind, you should be happy with 80% or even 60% allegiance on votes when the alternative is 100% the other way. And how do you convince moderate Democrats to switch parties when only 100% is acceptable? Stop the circular firing squad that demands perfection!
The Russians are digging in to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The Coalition of WTF are the Russians Up To? met.
The Japanese are looking to lighter armor to deploy south to face China rather than north to face Soviet invasion. That seems to make sense on the surface. But what battlefield do the Japanese anticipate? East China Sea islands? That makes no sense. Okinawa, sure. But Taiwan would make sense as a battlefield for strategically deployable tanks. Although my view is that moving the older 50-ton Type 90 by sea is no different than moving the 48-ton Type 10 despite calling it "lighter and more maneuverable than the Type 90." The article even admits that way further down in the article. Nor is sea transport even different than moving the light wheeled Type 16. So I'm confused. I assume having smaller dimensions is the key for the Type 10 rather than weight. Still, heavy tanks might necessary if the Japanese have to cross the Sea of Japan to Russia again. Maybe--if the Russians remove their figurative head from their ass--to help the Russians hold off the Chinese.
Hiding the deficit spending with transparently biased metrics. Tip to Instapundit.
The Iranians appear to be trying to stoke Scottish separatism.
Suddenly "lived experience" can--and must!--be criticized by the left.
Fewer and less proactive police plus a lot more criminals is surely a recipe for success! Question: can the released prisoners be required to stay in California? [Later: that actually is a requirement! So good for California for accepting the consequences of their action without inflicting them on the rest of us.]
Yes indeed, there was a time when children's playgrounds were more dangerous than a modern Army obstacle course. Of course those tough bastards--well, the survivors of the play contraptions, anyway--beat the Nazis and Japs in World War II!
After more than a year (and counting) of experiencing why we need a government body focused on combating a pandemic virus, the CDC director shows she is not in fact focused like a laser beam on that problem. If she wanted to focus on equity she should have gone into another line of work. I swear, too many people think America is so wealthy and successful that no amount of truly epic stupidity could possibly harm America. Tip to Instapundit.
To be fair to China, "playing Biden and America for fools" in climate negotiations doesn't require Illuminati levels of conspiracy to pull off when John Kerry is on the job.
It greatly saddened me when out of nowhere it occurred to me that isolation on the high seas is no longer necessary to deprive our citizens of knowledge of America. Our public schools do that to everyone who passes through that system. No longer limited to just a single man without a country, we have a generation that lives without a country they should be proud of. These people have thrown away America, doomed to not even know the country they live in. The country they should love.
Don't expect a South Vietnam-style evacuation under fire in Afghanistan. That's probably fair. Afghanistan doesn't face an enemy conventional army poised to attack after America and NATO withdraw.
Well sure, military power should bolster diplomatic efforts to achieve victories without war. But if ... somehow ... Smart Diplomacy doesn't achieve victories for America, the military had best be ready to fight.
Patriotism. If you love America only when your favored politician is president, you don't love America. You love your politicians.
The Taliban are conducting 100 attacks per day now. It has been a long time since I've seen that metric reported. That's pretty busy. But how many are direct fire or even complex attacks? How many are mines and IEDs? Can the Taliban sustain the casualties needed to sustain that rate?
Democrats want blue collar people to pay for the advanced degrees of the upper middle class. To Hell with the Democrats for that outrageous demand. Let those spoiled brats pay back the student loans that nobody forced them to accept.
No! Way! "Researchers at Livermore’s “Z Division,” the lab’s intelligence unit,
issued the report May 27, 2020, classified “Top Secret.” Its existence
is previously undisclosed. The Z Division report assessed that both the
lab-origin [of COVID19] theory and the zoonotic theory were plausible and warranted
further investigation." I was assured that's crazy talk. Between fentanyl and the Xi Jinping Flu, China's laboratories have been busy exporting death to America.
The Pandemic Porn has had an effect: "Americans' anxiety and concerns about COVID-19 remain high a year into the pandemic, and mental health effects of the health crisis are on the rise, a new survey shows." The only time I could be remotely called "anxious" about the Xi Jinping Flu was in the first couple months. We knew very little and predictions included horrifying results. But even then I was in the "work the problem" mode. Now, not so much. Granted, I've had the luxury of avoiding much contact to avoid infection. That was a big advantage. But I could not avoid all contact and responsibilities.
I guess they feel sympathy for them: The Biden administration will refuse to prosecute large numbers of Portland Antifa/BLM rioters. Tip to Insanity Wrap.
Cast a giant diplomatic shadow.
Iraq seriously needs to dismantle the pro-Iran militias that infect Iraq. Giving Iran money, as American policy seems determined to do, to reinforce that infection is insane.
"Hygiene theater." Yep.
As the Capitol Building riot was unfolding, I worried that the imagery would derail Republican efforts to retake Congress in 2022. Just a few months later, despite Democratic and media efforts to wrongly portray that terrible event as an "insurrection," it looks like retaking the House is quite likely for the Republicans. There are limits to disinformation, apparently.
Globally, the middle class is under threat. In the 1990s, I was amazed that America was developing a mass upper middle class. What I didn't see was that it was at the price of a blue collar middle class that has upward mobility. Was that movement in the 1990s followed by pulling up the drawbridge behind that wave?
Strategypage has thoughts on Britain's proposed military in their global strategy: "Britain is aiming for more reach, geographically, technologically and across all five domains - but with less bang." My thoughts here and here. Keep in mind post-Brexit trade considerations. Especially as the proto-imperial EU seems intent on punishing Britain with a continental system that can exclude Britain as punishment. Nothing is too petty to carry out for the continentals: "Britain has attacked France for 'unacceptable' threats to cut off Jersey’s electricity supplies
in a row over Brexit fishing rights with government sources warning
that not even the Channel Island’s Nazi occupiers sank so low." I guess the French value the EU more than NATO, which Britain along with France are still members. The French are trying the Chinese tactic of using fishing vessels as the force of choice. Britain is responding with lightly armed patrol vessels.
Well, people globally are obviously riddled with morons. Russia and China crush democracy. America suffers casualties and spends money to give people a chance to have democracy. If so many people think America is a problem, that is their problem and not ours. We simply can't adjust our policies to cater to the stupid. May they never experience the joys of attracting the attention of Russia or China.
How is it possible to be that stupid?
A declining working age population is a problem for China. Is raising China's retirement age from its extremely low level reflecting past short life spans a ticking time bomb for Xi Jinping's rule?
I'm not certain that it is even true that our people are being hit by directed-energy weapons. But if true, they are acts of war as much as being shot at by bullets.
I never bought the notion that we should not be worried about Islamist terrorism because so many more people die from other things here. I rejected that. Accidents, health, and crime are bad but something we expect as part of life. Terrorism is an extra form of senseless death that we don't expect and shouldn't tolerate. Remember, there is no cabal of angry bathtubs with a political objective behind those slip and falls. And we can't put non-slip stickers on Islamists to reduce their killing sprees. But this is also why I don't buy the notion that police killings of African-American civilians shouldn't be addressed because there are so many Black victims of Black killers. Those are separate issues. It was a blinding flash of light when I heard a Black man in Chicago say that he expects Black criminals to behave horribly--but he expects better from police. He was absolutely right, I thought. Yes, unjustified police killings are far rarer than most people think. But we have a responsibility to reduce that further when we can because we give police authority to kill to enforce even stupid laws and regulations. Really, selling "loosies" is illegal? Why? And of course, crime in cities should be addressed seriously. And seriously addressing that problem doesn't involve defunding or defanging the police.
Is China a "paper dragon"? Certainly they aren't as strong as their shiny weapons portray. Much must go right behind that facade to make it real military power. So sure, don't panic. The author relies on Beckley to reject the scope of the China threat. I addressed that author who made a lot of good points. But Japan caused us enough grief from 1941-1945 despite having a GDP of 1/8 to 1/10 of America's. So no, I would not say that China is a paper dragon. Especially when China gets to initiate war at a time and place nearby of their choosing. Work the problem.
Emperor Xi continues to gather power. Will more power allow Xi to be start a war or make him less likely to start a war because he will also have more responsibility if things go badly?
Politically convenient statistical adjustments? I don't assume that. Tip to Instapundit.
Cities will bounce back. I was skeptical of the "new normal" crap that has been floated the last year. Cities weren't abandoned after the Spanish Flu a century ago. And going back through history, cities endured despite seasonal epidemics of very deadly diseases. Cities were too useful. I imagine they still are. Maybe technology has eroded that usefulness, but I'll have to see it to believe it will be decisive in creating a "new normal" that downgrades cities. The new normal will be how we enable the value of cities despite any lingering worries over germs. Now, specific cities could shrink or die even as others expand and thrive. But that isn't just abou the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. Hell, I think the 5-second rule will return.
Indonesia's submarine force. The one Indonesia lost was very old.
I kind of assumed this type of operation took place routinely.
Ah, peace with honor: "Top U.S. defense and military officials are holding out hope the Afghan
government will be able to withstand the latest Taliban military
offensive, launched days ago as U.S. and coalition troops began leaving
the country." "Holding out hope" for a non-disaster doesn't inspire confidence. In me or in other potential partners in the near future.
It amuses me that there are conservatives who embrace Caitlyn Jenner as a Republican who could capture California's state government yet are eager to reject Mitt Romney or other Republicans who are not 100% pro-Trump.
The U.S. armed forces are practicing joint warfare in Alaska.
The Soviets effed up their economy in the Cold War; and when they dumped the communists Russia effed up that opportunity even as their former East European vassal states joined the West and began to prosper: "By 2019 most East European nations, including Turkey had higher per-capital income than Russians. This loss was widely felt, and experienced in Russia." #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings.
Burma security forces have already killed 1,000 people resisting the military coup.
Is the world entering a new era of "potential international instability" because of the rise of China? Maybe. Or it might "just" be regional instability near China. Or maybe "tensions" rather than "instability" is a better word.
The Navy needs to end its platform-centric focus. I've been on that for a couple decades. Hey, speaking of our most expensive platform ever! Well, Ford slowly gets ready to actually be capable of sailing and fighting.
Defender Europe 2021. Russia hates it when people ignore them. Wish granted!
Stimulus and response: "Australian defense officials and politicians alike are striking an increasingly hawkish tone on China. This week, it was revealed that
a former top general warned his troops last year of the “high
likelihood” of war with China. This comes just days after Australian
Defense Minister Peter Dutton raised eyebrows with his assessment that Chinese bullying of Taiwan could lead to a regional conflict." China thought that it owned Australia because Australia sold so many raw materials to China.
Preparing for irregular warfare. I think training the officers for non-conventional fighting is more important than training the lower ranks. Because units trained for irregular warfare will be slaughtered in conventional warfare; while troops trained for conventional warfare can adapt to COIN or irregular warfare if properly led by trained officers who know what orders to give. Also, I've been on the Narva vulnerability for a while.
Well that's quite the clown car operation in Arizona.
Is the COVID-19 Xi Jinping Flu pandemic the last pandemic? That would be nice. Especially if an even worse one could be engineered in a lab and unleashed on the world. Tip to Instapundit.
Yes, I strongly suspect "mitigation" efforts caused more harm than they prevented from the pandemic for the vast majority of people. Mitigation should have been narrowly focused on the vulnerable. Honestly, I'd have behaved pretty much the same with no requirements at all placed on me. Believe me, I love myself and my family more than my government does. Tip to Instapundit.
AFRICOM's eyes on the ground in Mozambique.
I think it is accurate to say that some people now love being locked down. That's sad. But that is their right, I suppose. But don't let them make pandemic policy to let them think their choice is rational rather than sad.
The modernized UH-1 Huey lives on and Ukraine will produce them.
Remember that we may have to go to war in 5 or 10 years with the army we are choosing right now to have then. But that applies to the other services as well, of course.
Hope is our rearguard in Afghanistan. Although we've long feared Afghan security forces are enduring "unsustainable" casualties, that's pretty normal there and the Taliban suffer higher loss rates. Also, the fact that the Taliban captured a district capital is insignificant and not a big deal. Government forces will retake it. Districts are like our counties. How well protected are our county seats of government? Although I am worried about holding Lashkar Gah in the south. Remember that city when we were last thinking about getting out?
El Salvador is heading down the dictator route. But do we have moral authority to address that given Democratic plans to pack our own supreme court with loyal justices?
I'm not reassured by Biden administration denials that we will pay a huge ransom for hostages held by Iran. We did it in 2016 as part of the 2015 nuclear deal, and denied it then by using semantics to say we were just unfreezing access to "their" money. Will we never learn that handing over cash for hostages just incentivizes Iran to take more hostages?
My Oh My, More Insanity Evades Science. Tip to The Morning Briefing. Apparently the woke think Junior is a documentary.
Liberal bigotry. Is it really satire?
Getting to the frontlines of NATO: "'Exercise Steadfast Defender 2021 will test NATO's readiness and military mobility - with forces deploying across land and sea, all the way from North America to the Black Sea region and off the coast of Portugal,' NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a press release."
Stupid and hateful. But I'm sure they'll find some lovely filth there.
The legal push back against government abuse of power sometimes takes time.
When you absolutely have to kill everyone in the room, both will work equally well: "President Vladimir Putin insisted Russia's homegrown coronavirus vaccine was as 'reliable as a Kalashnikov assault rifle', as the country’s health officials authorised a single-dose version of the Sputnik V jab, dubbed Sputnik Light."
Contrary to this article, I think NATO is relevant and can still defend Europe from a regional power like Russia that is broke, pushed east from Cold War days, and has continents-spanning defense needs. That said, America needs to be able to commit ground and air power there quickly.
Turkey has decided it has more than enough foes in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
In theory the Chinese could interrupt the line of communication between America and Australia. Until American Marines or Australians eject the Chinese.
Simple life discovered on Mars? And given the ability of stuff to travel between Mars and Earth, if it is life, is it from here? Or is it indigenous? And if so, is it oppressed by systemic Earthism?
According to the left, women are "birthing people." Explain to me again how conservatives are plotting to create the dystopian anti-woman world of The Handmaid's Tale where women are only valued for having children. Peak Stupid cannot arrive soon enough.
The Taiwanese are delusional if they think China invading and conquering them is the least of their worries. If the Taiwanese can be broken by China refusing to buy Taiwanese pineapples, Taiwan has serious problems. Taiwan should make major efforts to decouple from China trade.
Afghan air power will be key to fighting the Taliban. But can contractors keep it in the air after America leaves?
Oh? "European Union members have admitted the United States into a project
aimed at quickening the flow of military personnel and equipment across
the continent, hoping the move will open a new front in trans-Atlantic
cooperation." That's damned nice of the EU given that the division of responsibilities is that America provides the NATO military power while the EU provides the territory to be crossed and defended.
Huh. Mid-afternoon Friday I heard something low approaching and looked out my window to see a V-22 passing low over my home. Apparently heading to Ann Arbor airport. Neat. Sadly I didn't suspect I'd need to take video. I went outside and waited 5 minutes but it did not reappear.
Exhibit 197 of why I don't like proportional representation systems.
I worry the Biden administration wants European approval so badly that it will agree to anything to get it: "World powers held a fourth round of high-level talks Friday aimed at
bringing the United States back into the nuclear deal with Iran, with
both sides signaling a willingness to work out the major stumbling
blocks." America is willing to pretend Iran has no nuclear weapons programs. So I assume the stumbling block is getting Iran to pretend it has no nuclear weapons program.
Problem: "Iraq's F-16 program is in jeopardy because U.S. contractors are leaving key Iraqi bases after attacks by Iran-backed militias, a U.S. government report says." This is a problem even with American troops in Iraq. How much worse will this be in Afghanistan after we leave?
I remember reading about this Mexico City problem decades ago. I guess it hasn't gotten better. Can it be solved?
Yes, Army land power is important to the INDOPACOM region. But that commitment to obeying the tyranny of the shores doesn't go all the way to the logical conclusion of the Army's core competency, as I discussed in Military Review.
Bamboo paper ballots? Oh FFS. Mind you, the testing is being done for the purpose of debunking the ridiculous theory about the Arizona vote.
Haha!
The Biden administration brilliantly proposes to give police a reason to enforce a law that disproportionately targets minorities: "With drug prohibition causing a record 90,000 overdose deaths last year, and racial disparities in criminal justice gaining long-overdue attention, it’s the definition of insanity to prohibit menthol cigarettes that are popular among Black and Brown populations and not expect another black market with more violence and inequities in criminal justice." Feel the racial healing! Tip to Instapundit.
Absence--and silence--makes the polling grow fonder.
Yeah:
The mysterious world (to leftists) of cause and effect.
Supplying China's watery South China Sea "city" of Sansha.
Oh FFS: "NASA’s new administrator is big on tackling climate and diversifying the agency's workforce, but hedging on whether the U.S. can put astronauts on the moon by 2024." So are the Environmental Protection Agency and Equal Opportunity Commission going to join forces to get Americans into space and return to the moon? Is Nelson's primary mission not hard enough?!
The Chinese haven't gotten influence in Africa as opposed to America to the extent China's investments suggest it would be. Are current measurements a lagging indicator of past investments? Will measurable influence increase in the future? Or has China's investment aggravated Africans as much as provide influence?
German Green activists seem to be ashamed of Germany: "The German Green Party may be leading in the polls, but it is facing a
bizarre grassroots revolt over the use of the word 'Germany' that may
yet prove its undoing ahead of September's elections." Well sure, today they already have Germany. Why dwell on that? And they dominate Europe within the EU. Maybe the Greens are looking to tomorrow and want to insert "the world" in place of "Germany." If Green-supremacist socialists are gaining power there, should we just pull back and nuke the place from orbit? Just to be sure? I kid, I kid. But seriously, I don't know what happened to Germany. But I don't know what happened to our Democrats, either. It's like the Stupid Train pulled into the station and they're fighting to get on.
India, Japan, and Australia work together under the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative to decouple trade from reliance on China. The word is "resilience" but that means not relying on China which could shut off key resources in disputes.
Let's just hope that French pilot bravado against a tied up fellow pilot leads to bravery in action against Russian pilots, if that becomes necessary.
The U.S. Navy commissioned a new expeditionary sea base. She is the third ESB, and will operate in the western Pacific out of Saipan.
The European Union wants a rapid reaction brigade. The destruction of America-dominated NATO starts with the first EU imperial brigade, I suppose.
The U.S. is pulling out its contractors from Afghanistan, too. How will Afghanistan maintain its equipment without contractors? Or are they in a separate category since this story refers to contractors "working with" the US? And if so, will they want to remain as they see other contractors leave?
Is ethnic conflict threatening to tear apart Ethiopia? Could--or is--Egypt exploiting that to put pressure on Ethiopia over its GERD Nile River dam?
A ransomware cyberattack has shut down a pipeline supplying the east coast with fuel. That's not reassuring. Tip to Instapundit.
A preview of what jihadis in Afghanistan will do when they face less opposition.
You have to admit that China at least gave the world a better deal by using their crashing rocket as a sort of dart that can only hit one place. China hit the entire planet with their pandemic. So, much improvement so far in 2021 over 2020! Thanks for being so sporting this time, China.
The US intercepted a boat of arms in the Arabian Sea heading to Yemen, no doubt to the Houthi. And no doubt from the Iranians.
Putin says Nazi ideas sill live. Well, "Mister Mussolini" might want to mention that to his senior partner building up a massive military, tightening his grip on his own people, trying to get living space, and eliminating troublesome minorities. And Putin's claim that there is "Russophobia"--at a big goose-stepping military parade, no less--after two wars of conquest in Europe, poisoning of dissidents, election meddling, and nuclear threats is just astounding. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
Will an increasingly global Britain lose Scotland on their home island?
Appeasing mobs won't end well. Tip to Instapundit.
Defeating drones at the receiving end.
Xi Jinping Flu COVID-19 surge in parts of Asia.
The Germans don't want France's old Atlanique 2 ASW planes: "'If the French offer us a similar option, we haven’t gained anything,' he said. 'I can’t help but think that they want to get rid of their aging airframes while driving a wedge into Germany’s prospective P-8 purchase.'" Wait. What? The pro-EU French government tried to sow discord between NATO allies America and Germany? That seems so out of character.
It may be inconvenient for Putin, but don't forget that when Nazi Germany invaded Poland, the Soviet Union took part--as well as conquering Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; and invading Finland and Romania. It's almost as if international socialists had a lot in common with national socialists.
Is it really a game of "hide and seek" when reporters don't want to "seek"? Well, the administration pretending they've solved the border problem is good practice for pretending a revived nuclear deal with Iran will prevent the mad mullahs from getting nukes.
Finnish military intelligence offers a unique view into their security environment. Wordsmithing. God Level: "The return of power politics has increased tensions in Europe. Russia, for example, has shown its ability and willingness to use, where necessary, armed force to achieve its objectives also in Europe, which has increased military confrontation and activity in the Baltic Sea region." The qualifier "for example," as if any other country in Europe is increasing tensions in Europe, is hilarious! No other example is offered, of course.
