I mock Putin for his seemingly endless policies that do nothing but alienate NATO while China's shadow grows darker over Russia's 19th century Far East conquests from China. I have to grant him major credit for his latest ploy.
After protracted domestic unrest in 2020 in the form of massive protests attempting to oust Belarus’ president Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the country’s government is teetering on the verge of collapse. Moscow has rushed in to fill the vacuum. Lukashenka has suddenly fallen in line with Moscow’s agenda, despite years of resistance to encroaching Russian economic influence. Now it is probable that Russia is facilitating a soft takeover of the former Soviet republic.
This week, NATO was alarmed at an announcement by Belarus’ defense ministry that a tank battalion would be moved near the border with Poland. Just a week earlier, there was news of an alarming buildup of Russian tanks on its Crimean border with Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned NATO that “additional measures” would be taken if troops were sent to aid Ukraine. On April 14 Russia warned the U.S. to stay out of the escalating situation “for its own good.”
I was more right than I thought despite the lack of kinetics:
Has Russia's mobilization near Ukraine been a distraction from Russia's drive to embrace Belarus more tightly? ...
This is dangerous. Belarus is the most important territory in Europe today. And Russian control has defense implications for NATO in the Baltic states and Poland.
If this is the long-feared reconquest of Belarus by Russia, the ability of Russia to threaten Ukraine while deterring NATO will also be increased by the Russian ability to threaten to advance through Poland and Lithuania to link up with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.
This is dangerous for NATO.
But can Russia hold this subliminal conquest? Or is Belarus just behind on the path Ukraine took, which resulted in the expulsion of Russia in 2014 (back to the initial story):
According to Warsaw’s Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), over sixty percent of Belarusians believe their country should draw inspiration from periods when they were not ruled by Russia. ...
Simultaneously, approval rates for Vladimir Putin in Belarus have been on the decline. A Chatham House poll reported a 34.6 increase in negative viewpoints of the Russian president since the beginning of the August 2020 protests.
Perhaps this will eventually be just one more rake that Russia steps on.
UPDATE: The Belarus opposition is not giving up:
In a call to resume mass protests in Belarus, opponents of President Alexander Lukashenko want to use this weekend's Victory Day celebrations to remind the world of the regime's ongoing human rights abuses and the continued resistance within the country. They're also asking Brussels to toughen its sanctions regime against Minsk.
We'll see.
