The Russians looked like they were mobilizing to invade Ukraine. The numbers reported sure made it seem like that was imminent. That was the impression I got even though I figured objectives would need to be limited because of Russian weaknesses. Now we can get the true picture.
Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine:
Russia concluded over a month of training near the Ukrainian border and inside Donbas areas it controls. Russia tried to portray this as the buildup for a possible invasion of Ukraine. ... The Russians did not want [to talk to Ukrainian President Zelensky about the Donbas], and their response has been stunts like the current “invasion threat.” Zelensky didn’t flinch because he could do the math. The Russians had sent the equivalent of six combat brigades, accompanied by additional artillery (gun and rocket) units moving to the border as well as a buildup of combat aircraft and warships in the Crimean Peninsula, the one Ukrainian province Russia was able take in 2014 and annex. ...
Currently the Russian Army has about 20 combat brigades that are potentially combat ready, depending on how much training the annual influx of new conscripts received. That means many “combat ready” Russian brigades are always in the process of actually becoming combat ready. The current concentration of brigades on the Ukrainian border is the majority of combat brigades the Russians have available in western Russia. In such a large country, the Russian army has always been spread thin in peacetime and always training lots of new conscripts.
Six more Russian brigades were not an invasion threat. Sure, they could reinforce frontline proxy forces in Russian-occupied Donbas and make limited gains. But Russia would have to end the war and find forces to pacify any newly occupied territory. And endure more sanctions in response. Meanwhile Russia has a huge border to defend with few decent troops. Russia is a regional military power with continents-spanning borders.
And note that Russian combat brigades are about half as effective as American combat brigades, if memory serves me.
The post also explains that Zelensky is actually making some progress to fight corruption. Which is how Ukraine can bolster their military capabilities enough to worry Russia.
Still, while Russia seemed to blink on invasion, the Russians do now have equipment for those brigades closer to Ukraine for future operations. And the Russians may have used this crisis as a red herring to bring Belarus closer to Russian control.
On the bright side for NATO, by going along with the Russian bluff it made NATO support for Ukraine look much braver than it was.
Russia is a threat to weaker countries near them. On the bright side for those weaker countries, Russia has limited time to pick on them before it may have to make up with them to face the Threat That Cannot Be Named.
