The Last Hurrah

One of these days my determination to figure things out will backfire. I think I have reached my limit and call it a day on that.

A couple days ago I finished a major battle installing a stacked laundry unit in a very tiny place. I was expecting the delivery people to install it, but I screwed up. I thought the only thing I was installing was the pair of water inlet hoses that were only two years old and I worried their installation might just include crappy rubber hoses. They won't install old stuff. 

But there was a failure to communicate. I had signed off on me installing it. All of it. I considered calling to straighten it out but I thought, I can do this. Totally. That's a weakness of mine that so far hasn't bit me in the butt. 

I could have done everything from the front, with difficulty, but sadly the power cord had to be attached in the back. And there was no way to slide behind the unit to get behind. I tried. 

So I had to drag out the whole unit that two burly men had manhandled in. My measurements were good and it did barely fit. Luckily I quickly realized that sliding a large sheet of cardboard under the stacked laundry units would help drag it. It did. I had to pull it all the way out to get access to the power access plate. Then turn it around and push it back in. Around a corner. With a furnace and gas water heater with pipes in the way, requiring much care to avoid bigger problems. 

I had the foresight to tie some of the pieces I needed with string in case I dropped them behind the unit while trying to connect things. Although honestly if I dropped something I just might have called it a field loss and gone to the hardware store for a replacement rather than do another drag just for a clamp or even a tool. Luckily I dropped nothing.

After 3 hours I had it all hooked up, but because it was after business hours and I didn't want to test it when plumbers were on double time I called it a day.

It was beer time to relax.

Sadly, right before going to bed I discovered the water inlets were leaking a bit, even with the water off. I fixed that and went to sleep. 

Early in the morning I found no water leaking! After business hours started, I turned on the cold water and waited a half hour. No leak. I turned on the hot water and waited half an hour. No leak. 

Now was the time for the big test. I did a cold water test wash--after belatedly, but in time, remembering to put in the drain hose. Success! Although every unfamiliar noise from a new machine made me hyper-alert for failures. 

Then the dryer worked! 

Then a hot water load--with a minor leak that I fixed with a bit of careful tightening. 

I called it an official success and reattached the face plate that provides access to water inlet and dryer vent hose connections.

Then I put everything back in the furnace closet and stairwell that I had removed to provide easier access to the furnace room. 

Hey, at least they took away the old machines. That went as planned.  

This is the last time I don't make sure the seller installs something--and pay extra if necessary. I appear to have done it right but because I don't do this every week (or even ever before) my confidence in doing it right is shaky. If three weeks go by with no problem, I'll relax. May my floor water alarm in there never go off (while working perfectly, of course). 

I'm getting too old for this. I'm not a little shocked that I didn't strain my back in this endeavor.

This really shouldn't be that intimidating. I mean, I tackled it, so it didn't actually intimidate me. But the individual pieces were easy. I've connected vents. I've connected water inlets. I've connected electric wires. I've moved furniture. I've done tougher jobs in the National Guard.

But this put everything together and added a very tight space that required doing things right, in order, without having to repeatedly drag the stupid thing out again for a do over on a missed step. While I could have handled the vent attachment better--attaching to the back of the dryer first and connecting to the outside pipe after pushing the unit in place, instead of the reverse, comes to mind--I did avoid repeat moves, at least.

And breaking the task down into sequential tasks rather than dwelling on the entirety helps. My first task was simply to pull the unit away from the wall and, if necessary (it was) get the unit out of the closet around the corner. Then I just went one step at a time for each smaller task.

Now I just need to clean my blood from various points on the machine that scratched and sliced my fingers and arms. And one day I will try to remove the cardboard sheet still under the unit. But today is not that day.

And hey, maybe in the days of Xi Jinping Flu pandemic, it was good not to have two strangers huffing and puffing for several hours in my home.

Anyway, tentative success. So I've got that going for me. Which is nice.

You Can Fight Without Logistics--You Just Can't Win

Yes, America needs improved facilities in the Indo-Pacific region away from the built-up hubs in Japan and South Korea. Logistics don't sprout out of nowhere.

Exactly:

Posture and logistics remain serious weak spots for credible American deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. . . . [I]t doesn’t matter how many F-35s the military buys if very few are stationed in the region, their primary bases have little defense against Chinese missiles, they don’t have secondary airfields to operate from, [or] they can’t access prepositioned stocks of fuel and munitions.

And that logistic and protective network is important if the Army is to have a role across the Indo-Pacific region, as I addressed in Military Review. Especially on Taiwan if China invades.

How Secure Does Xi Jinping Feel?

Just how secure can Xi Jinping feel on the throne of China?

That's not the biggest sign of confidence I've ever seen:

This summer, the CCP launched a major purge into China’s domestic security apparatus. According to the officials conducting the purge, they are looking to create a security apparatus that is “absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable.” Chen Yixin, the key Xi ally conducting the operation, compared the event to the 1942-1945 Yan’an Rectification Movement, a similar purge that strengthened Mao Zedong’s political control. Similar to Mao’s, Xi’s purge is political. If the CCP is faced with popular political dissent, Xi wants to guarantee that domestic security forces are faithful. ...

Perennially concerned about his personal grip on power, Xi sees 2022 as a fragile moment. Anxious that public demonstrations might arise to contest his unprecedented third term, Xi is pre-emptively cracking down. The political purification of China’s domestic security apparatus, the suppression of Hong Kong and elevation of Shenzhen, and the sinification of ethnic minorities are all meant to ensure Xi a peaceful rise as he becomes China’s most powerful leader in decades.

I just wonder if it matters that Xi has loyal leaders in charge of internal security.

For localized events like Tienanmen Square, such loyalty will make sure nobody balks at gunning down resistance. If Inner Mongolians, Tibetans, Uighurs, or Hong Kongers are seen to contest Xi's rule, the internal security people will likely shoot to kill.

But if the Han majority shows signs of contesting Xi's rule, there aren't enough internal security people to handle a snowballing resistance if it isn't quickly quelled.

And if that happens, survival instincts will kick in for all those absolutely loyal, pure, and reliable underlings who will calculate their actions not on whether it helps Xi but on whether they think Xi will win.

Still, I worry about what Xi might do with this CCP outlook on power made specific to his own continued power,

China is a large country that in many ways is a continent. Once fissures appear, no amount of presumed loyalty, purity, and reliability might be enough once a real crisis starts.

Disposable Missile Batteries

The Army wants missiles that can be fired remotely by unmanned launchers:

The U.S. Army is working to convert Navy missiles into land-based mid-range weapons that complement its short-range rockets and long-range hypersonic missiles. If experiments prove out, the new missiles and their launchers will be added to the Army’s connect-everything network so that soldiers can fire them remotely or in concert with other batteries. ...

That would allow an operator to hit a target with fire from a constellation of launchers under a single point of control, bringing a variety of weapons to bear.

I advocated something like that 17 years ago in Military Review as an aside to discussing new armored vehicles, thinking the vehicle could direct external firepower to supplement the vehicle's own organic weapons (p. 29):

For long-range or beyond-line-of-sight firing, missiles should be part of the force. The power of today’s precision weapons is already breathtaking. In the future, separating missiles from the FCS makes the most sense for a networked force. Mis­sile modules, each containing two or more missiles, could be dropped off in the wake of the advancing FCS unit or even scattered by aircraft along the axis of advance in the enemy’s rear areas. The FCS crew could control firing.

Later I discovered that I had imagined a project already under discussion--Netfires. 

But this Army project is getting close to what I wanted if the vehicle crew requests fires from a unit that calls in the remotely fired missiles.

Next stop, the black box of effects support:

In my ideal world, fire support is a black box where a call to destroy or suppress a target automatically calls in the appropriate weapon capable of taking out the target in a timely manner without the soldier making the support request even knowing what asset provided the support.

It could be a plane or space system out of sight, an attack helicopter, a ship or submarine offshore, a distant ground force missile or artillery asset, or even an 81mm mortar back at the company level.

Or non-kinetic effects, of course. 

The new Army missiles will be an important part of this effort.

Ordering the Skedaddle

Trump plans to reduce the American troop contingent in Afghanistan to 2,500 by mid-January. At what point is America's troop commitment too low to sustain a NATO effort to keep Afghanistan from being a sanctuary for jihadis?

NATO could pay a heavy price for leaving Afghanistan too early, its chief warned Tuesday after a U.S. official said President Donald Trump is expected to withdraw a significant number of American troops from the conflict-ravaged country in the coming weeks.

NATO has fewer than 12,000 troops from dozens of nations in Afghanistan helping to train and advise the country's national security forces. More than half are not U.S. troops, but the 30-nation alliance relies heavily on the United States for transport, air support, logistics and other assistance. It's unlikely that NATO could even wind down its operation without U.S. help.

Well, it seemed clear we were preparing for the big skedaddle. 

UPDATE: If this is just another step in this mission statement, I'll be fine:

In closing, we set out to accomplish three goals in 2001. First, go abroad and destroy terrorists, their organizations, and their sanctuaries. Two, strengthen our defenses against future attacks. And three, prevent the continued growth of Islamist terrorism to include by working with allies and local partners to take the lead in the fight. 

I hope 2,500 Americans and however many coalition troops remain with us there are enough. Killing jihadis is still necessary.

Biden Will Elevate Process Over Peace

A Biden administration will restore the decades-long but failed "peace process" that focused on appeasing Palestinian demands that never retreat from maximalist demands for Israel's destruction.

A few months ago, Israeli agents killed the al Qaeda second-in-command in Iran. Good. Many thanks. And America cooperated:

The United States and Israel worked together to track and kill a senior al-Qaida operative in Iran earlier this year, a bold intelligence operation by the two allied nations that came as the Trump administration was ramping up pressure on Tehran.

Four current and former U.S. officials said Abu Mohammed al-Masri, al-Qaida’s No. 2, was killed by assassins in the Iranian capital in August. The U.S. provided intelligence to the Israelis on where they could find al-Masri and the alias he was using at the time, while Israeli agents carried out the killing, according to two of the officials. The two other officials confirmed al-Masri’s killing but could not provide specific details.

That cooperation will end if the Democrats are in the White House come January. Can Israel do enough damage before a Biden administration embraces Iran? 

On the Palestinian track, Biden is likely, unfortunately, to throw out Trump’s peace plan and return to the “Clinton parameters” or worse, in which Israel gives up virtually all of the West Bank and turns Jerusalem into a divided, warring city. Even so, with domestic issues on his plate like COVID-19 and an economy striving to recover from the pandemic, many believe Biden won’t replicate Barack Obama’s obsession with the stubborn, self-pitying Palestinians — who have proved unamenable to peacemakers since the late 1930s.

The much more pressing issue is Iran — which, even as it reels from U.S. sanctions and COVID-19, keeps up its nuclear and ballistic-missile development, regional subversion, and specifically its efforts to build up a military presence across the border from Israel in Syria.

Here the focus is on Biden’s plans regarding the JCPOA, Obama’s gravely flawed nuclear deal with Iran that allowed it to keep developing its conventional and nonconventional weapons, pumped it up with cash for those and other ends like sponsoring terrorism, and gave it the crowning prize of a ten-year sunset clause.

This will rescue Hezbollah and Hamas--restoring the Palestinians' title as Queen of the Victims Prom--as well as alienate Gulf Arab allies while exposing Iraq to infiltration by Iran. 

Biden's planned embrace of Iran will undermine the actual Middle East peace path that Trump's policies began.

Let's not forget the hubris of the Obama people who Biden's handlers will return to power:

After a thorough review, the Obama administration [in 2013] has lowered its foreign policy objectives for the Middle East:

Susan Rice leads US to more modest Mideast strategy[.]

Expansive role of two years ago is scaled down[.]

At the United Nations last month, Obama laid out the priorities he has adopted as a result of the review. The United States, he declared, would focus on negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran, brokering peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and mitigating the strife in Syria. Everything else would take a back seat.

Is that all? What will they do after lunch? Engineer the Second Coming of Jesus Christ?

Policy-making is likened to making sausage. However much you like the final product, you don't want to see how it is made. Have a thought for all the real people who will be ground up in the process of forever seeking peace instead of achieving it.

This will work out just swell, eh?

UPDATE: Palestinians really need Iran to finance terrorism. Restarting the Iran nuclear deal is a path to allowing Iran to afford that.

UPDATE: I wonder if the election of Biden means Saudi Arabia will hold back from making peace with Israel, which before the election had been expected to take place at some point soon.

Restoring the Killers to Ship Killers

The Navy is adding anti-ship missiles to our submarines facing China:

As the U.S. fleet grapples with the rising threat of China’s expanding Navy, which now has more ships than the U.S. Navy’s fleet on both coasts combined, the service is packing its submarines with longer-range weapons, including the forthcoming Maritime Strike Tomahawk, Vice Adm. Daryl Caudle said.

“We’re increasing our range and how we deliver kinetic effects,” Caudle said. "Long-range torpedoes, of course, because that’s our clandestine weapon, but also bringing back Harpoon in the Pacific. We’ve tested that capability — we know it works. The weapon, as everyone knows, has limitations, but still gives us some stand-off capability. And we’re also pressing hard to get the Maritime Strike Tomahawk building as well.”

I discussed returning Harpoon to our SSNs a couple years ago--and confessed my earlier confusion that they were gone in the first place:

The Navy is testing the return of Harpoon missiles to its attack submarines.

It is likely this is just a proxy to test systems for some future advanced missile rather than a true return of the Harpoon to the sub fleet.

That's good. You may recall my shock that we lost that capability long ago.

I thought I would have run across that fact, but a Harpoon-equipped sub fleet was a phantom capability that I assumed had continued. My error was enabled by the fact that ships still had Harpoon even as those ships declined as new construction left them out.

All that was a result of the Cold War victory when the Navy decided that carrier aircraft could take care of any surface fleet threat.

Sadly, our SSN fleet will shrink this decade until hopefully new construction restores numbers. Until then the boats we have had best be lethal.

Always Check the "Definitions" Section

I'm not sure there is really much to the story that the American military has defied Trump by keeping more troops in Syria than Trump supposedly authorized after ordering a pullback from the Turkish border in 2018:

Nameless bureaucrats who disagreed with Trump’s directive decided simply to undermine it, first by convincing him to leave behind a residual force and then by misleading “senior officials” about the actual number of U.S. troops left in the region, according to outgoing Ambassador Jim Jeffrey, the U.S. special envoy for Syria.

The story says we have 900 troops--much higher than the claimed formal limit.

I'm not sure there is any deception at all given that over a year ago the media reported we had a thousand troops in eastern Syria.

But aside from whether the story is accurate, there really is a grey area in counting. 

In some theoretical location, if 500 troops are allowed and those are rotated, do you say that the time when there are 1000 is a violation of the order? Or do you only count the 500 formally engaged in the mission during the overlap? 

And how long can the overlap last? Can troops preparing to leave continue to operate as incoming troops begin to operate? 

Can troops pulled out but based just over the border line and not counted in the cap conduct missions from a position perhaps only 50 miles from their old position? How long can they operate before returning to their base outside the country? Are there limits to how often such missions can take place?

What about the presence of rapid reaction forces held outside of the area in question as a reserve? If those go in fairly frequently, are they part of the ceiling or not?

Is it a violation of a ceiling if 200 combat engineers are sent in for a month to improve a base or build a new one? Are they allowed to have an escort?

How do you count contractors? How many could be armed for base security?

Let's say a senior officer visits. Will they bring an escort? Can the escort man defensive positions while the usual contingent goes on other missions? 

If a resupply mission to our troops or allied forces comes in, can it have an escort? That seems prudent. And again, what are the limits on their actions while they are in the area subject to a cap?

Also, what if you send troops in on a temporary training mission? Do they count? What are the limits on what can be done for "training."

And keep in mind that special operations forces are never counted. I noted this two years ago in this post. If the basic number of troops allowed is low, the presence of hundreds of special operations command forces can greatly expand the actual number on the ground.

Back in the Vietnam War, we took advantage of this grey area to inflate the number of troops we had in Europe to deter the Soviets from invading while we fought the war. Everybody counted whether coming or going.

I recall that when America in the 1980s was supporting the government of El Salvador with advisors in the field to fight communist insurgents, the American military used the grey area to keep more than the nominal number allowed in the field by Congress. 

As an aside, the media focused on whether the advisors carried rifles--which was forbidden as advisors and not fighters--when their real weapon was a radio to call in aerial gunship fire on the enemy.

But I digress. As I can!

And when the surge in Iraq was being debated, I openly speculated on extending rotation overlaps to increase the number of forces in the field actually fighting.

The "Surge" itself was a large-scale example of the overlap concept that could not be extended. One reason I was worried about relying on the Surge offensive was that it was something that could not be maintained easily without a major effort and taking risks by having nothing left in reserve. We had to succeed during that massive overlap. It worked (with a major assist by the Awakening in which Sunni Arabs changed sides to fight al Qaeda in Iraq).

I did the same when discussing a residual force that might be left behind at the end of our combat and training roles using combat brigades.

With all that in mind, actual troops on the ground can be much more than an official ceiling with no real defiance taking place. Check the definitions, I always say.

And while we have not decided just what we are willing to fight and die for in eastern Syria, eventually somebody has to make that decision before we have a mass casualty attack on our forces like the Beirut barracks or Mogadishu.

If that mass casualty event happens during the Biden administration and the military has fudged the numbers contrary to formal caps, you can be sure it will be treated as a virtual military coup rather than a joyous expression of military Resistance to the bad orange man.

Nothing to Fear But Fear Itself

People on the left side of the aisle really do seem to be nearly if not actually terrified of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. 

I worried a lot very early on until reality pushed aside the alarmist models. I still take precautions, including hand washing and wearing a mask inside stores. Because it is really contagious and deadly to certain vulnerable populations. 

And I do reduce my trips to stores and haven't eaten in a restaurant since this thing began. I have an elderly mother who I regularly visit to consider. 

But I did go to Las Vegas in September. And self-isolated for two weeks just in case. You have to cope and get on with your life as much as you can.

I wonder if this virus is frightening the left simply because it is getting so much detailed attention--unlike the host of other things that anonymously kill us every day in collectively large numbers. It's a variation of my view on why Americans are unwilling to admit America wins wars, as Jean-Paul Sartre wrote: 

A victory described in detail is indistinguishable from defeat.

Sadly, those on the left are fearing fear itself. And this blind spot applies to a lot of things that Trump did which horrified the left but which were ignored when Obama or anyone else did them. 

What was done was new to the left--yet standard operating procedure.

Iraq War Troop Numbers

Did America screw up the post-war Iraq mission? Maybe. But we recovered and won. And then screwed up and recovered again. What comes next is up in the air.

I'm not really comfortable with this assessment of the Iraq War:

The fall of Baghdad ended major combat operations in Iraq, but martial law was not declared or established. US commanders believed their mission was complete when the Iraqi army collapsed. They ignored their legal and moral obligations to restore order and impose interim military governance over occupied territory. Despite the futile efforts of leaders like Gen. Eric Shinseki who knew better, the poorly planned and executed consolidation and stabilization effort resulted in an eight-year insurgency ending in a unilateral US withdrawal, not a peace treaty or a stable and enduring political outcome.

Shinseki's counsel for several hundred thousand troops--which is the focus of the linked article in the above quote--to pacify Iraq was actually pretty standard fare for troops required. But Shinseki was in error--or people interpreting him err--when you consider that we actually did win the Iraq War insurgency campaigns without anywhere near 300,000 American troops in Iraq even during the Surge:

During the Iraq War counter-insurgency phase, many on the left argued that we failed to put several hundred thousand troops into Iraq as US Army General Shinseki once asserted we'd need to win, and as past counter-insurgency fights indicated could be necessary.

It was a dishonest critique by Democrats because they would never have supported an effort on that scale, but they made it nonetheless.

Yet except for specific periods when enemy initiatives threatened our war effort (I'm thinking of spring-summer 2004 and summer-fall 2006), I judged that we were winning the counter-insurgency war in Iraq despite the constant media cries of imminent defeat.

I wrote many blog posts calculating the troop-to-population ratio for our effort and continually judged we had enough to win.

The basis for my judgment was that the left was oddly only counting American troops when it was appropriate to consider all ground security forces and take into account the threat level in different areas.

Here's a post counting more than American security forces.

And again, we won with the troops we committed. Both Obama and Biden recognized and boasted of the achievement.

We did screw up by not clamping down quickly after major combat operations. But we wrongly assumed civilian police would stay on their jobs and hold down the looting. The police deserted, too.

And it would be rewriting history to think Democrats would have applauded a hard American-led reaction to post-major combat operations violence.

But to argue that failure provoked the insurgencies by Iraqi Sunni Arabs supported by Syria and by Iraqi Shias supported and directed by Iran is ridiculous. Who really believes that only absence of law and order in the several months after destroying the Saddam regime convinced Sunni Arabs and pro-Iran Shias to wage insurgencies and support terror?

But just stop the BS claims that we had too few troops to win the war in Iraq or that we caused resistance to our victory. Let's focus on defending our win--again.

UPDATE: As for defending the gain, it is good to see that the Saudis are finally competing with the Iranians for Iraqi friendship:

Saudi Arabia and Iran are competing to win the most popular support possible in Iraq. The Saudis are offering billions of dollars’ worth of economic investments, much of it aimed at improving the Shia south and the city of Basra. This is the heartland of the Iraqi Shia, who comprise about 60 percent of the population. Iraqi Shia live throughout the country but most are down south where they are very much the majority. Most Iraqi Shia are dissatisfied with Iraq’s Shia dominated parliament and government. Lots of government investment has gone to the south and much of it got stolen or paid for sub-standard work. The Saudis point out that they also have a corruption problem but have learned how to control it and are reducing the corrosive impact of corruption on their economy.

It frustrated me that the largely Sunni Arab world that had once backed Sunni Arab Saddam as a shield of the Arab world against Persian and Shia Iran didn't work early after we overthrew Saddam to compete for Iraqi support based on pan-Arab solidarity in contrast to Persian Iran's appeal to pan-Shia solidarity.

And we'll see if Trump's plan to reduce our troop contingent in Iraq to 2,500 is a prudent move to defend our gains. Perhaps the additional Saudi support is part of the withdrawal consideration. But I'm wary of the reduction.

Stalking Erdogan?

Russia will be allowed to have up to four warships in a Sudan port facility. Should Turkey under Erdogan worry or should America worry?

Huh:

Russia plans to build a naval base in Sudan, according to a bilateral draft agreement between the two nations.

The agreement would allow Russia to establish a naval logistics base in Sudan for the repair and supply of warships as well as provide rest to sailors, according to the document published on November 11 on a Russian government website after Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved it.

I have not been impressed with Putin's efforts to push Russian influence south into the Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East. 

Nor have I been impressed with Russia's power plays generally that simply relied on a post-Cold War weakened West unwilling to confront Putin.

If it comes to war with NATO or America, Russia's bases south of the Turkish Straits will be cut off by air and naval power if not by the Turks. And then there's the Suez Canal that is controlled by American ally Egypt. The Russian outposts isolated out there will lead a short but exciting life against NATO power.

And in peacetime, Russian influence and power is dwarfed by America's. 

Perhaps Russia is really competing with their long-time enemy Turkey by competing in the former Ottoman realms that Turkey is playing in. And that includes Libya now, with bonus competition in the former Soviet Caucasus region. 

Turkey certainly seems like they see Russia as an enemy.

Of course, the limits on wartime Russian freedoms applies to Turkey even more. But perhaps the Russians just aim for peacetime competition.

That might be within Russian capabilities. Assuming China doesn't cause it all to come crashing down around Moscow.

It's interesting. Russia is a great power masquerading as a budding--or faltering--super power because of its vast territorial size and supposed vast nuclear arsenal. Do loud Russian noises against a non-threatening NATO disguise their appeasement of China and the fact that in the west Russia is really more concerned with competing with Turkey?

Welcome to the Black Sea. Please Enjoy Your Stay

Romania has added to Russia's naval woes in the Black Sea.

That's helpful:

Romania has selected the Norwegian NSM (Naval Strike Missiles) for land-based launchers that will provide coast defense against Russian or Turkish attack. The 409 kg (900 pound) NSM anti-ship missile is 3.95 meters (13 feet) long, has a 125 kg (275 pound) warhead and a range of 185 kilometers. NSM uses GPS and inertial guidance systems, as well as a heat imaging sensor (and a database of likely targets) for picking out and hitting the intended ship. Romania is buying two [truck-mounted] NSM coastal batteries.

This is one more step that helps NATO deprive Russia of their illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014:

I think that Russia is more touchy about the Black Sea ever since the Russians illegally captured and annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Crimea is now a staging area for Russian operations in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (and I think that Russia intervened in Syria to justify the price of taking Crimea).

Although my feeling is that while NATO should take advantage of geography to inflict casualties on Russian forces in case of war, the Black Sea is a potential distraction from the main Baltic Sea front threatened by Russia.

I added that the Ukrainians were adding to the arsenal. And I recommended lots of naval mines. Especially to block Sevastopol.

I suspect it could be a Black Sea Turkey Shoot for the Russian Black Sea Fleet if it sorties.

Weekend Data Dump

An update on that Clusterfuck with a UN seat, Yemen. Iran is, of course, involved. And Strategypage notes what I've often stated: fighting goes on intermittently until negotiations shift around who is in power. Until those not in power get tired of that arrangement and resume the fighting. Iran makes it worse by interrupting the negotiating part of the cycle. So now there is just the fighting. Oh, and polio.

American and Japanese forces practiced holding or retaking Japanese islands that China claims.

Brazil is updating ancient F-5 fighters with new advanced weapons. Honestly, if aircraft maneuverability isn't the main focus of killing the enemy but long-range detection and missiles are, unless your enemy has stealthy planes why bother buying advanced non-stealthy fighters when you can focus on advanced detection and weapons on a cheap plane?

There is speculation that Putin may need another foreign adventure to distract his people in a rattled economy. How is that possible when Russia's sphere of influence in former Soviet territory is getting shaky and when--despite efforts to paint it as all perfectly normal and good!--Russia's own regions aren't always displaying proper deference to the center? Isn't Russia already overstretched? And with problems in Russia's own backyard, will China exploit that shakiness to start pulling those areas into China's orbit?

Watching Biden prepare to be president makes me feel like I'm watching Being There: The Sequel in real life.

In order to fight peer enemies the Army wants stronger divisions, which means brigades get smaller as they become part of a division fight and lose support units that now allow them to fight as separate self-contained units. Oh, and robots, too. The National Guard is already working on this. And I've noted that the Russians have this idea of big units, too.

The Biden administration is expected to order NASA to emphasize climate change rather than reaching the moon. Well of course! Somebody has to make up for all the carbon that China will spew into the air in their drive to reach the moon! Tip to Instapundit.

A look at Taiwan's recent arms order from the United States: Reach out and kill someone.

Science!

Well that escalated quickly.

The Boeing proposal to turn the B-1 into a close air support gunship. I still think a fighter version would be useful.

I heard that Biden has appointed very important people to a very important task force to come up with the detailed plan to fight the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. The media won't notice that it will be 99% the same as what our country is doing already. The only difference is to mandate masks. Everywhere. Regardless of circumstances. I've always been amazed by how much Democrats value a perfect plan--no matter how late it arrives.

Beyond  just joint warfare.

Even if Biden could change American policy to be more friendly to China, China is unlikely to view any changes as actually friendly or be capable of acting in a way that lessons American suspicions.

When you think about it, given the record votes for Biden and Trump, there was a blue wave and a red wave. But they nearly cancelled each other out. The blue wave may have given Biden the presidency--although that is in doubt since the blue wave may have mostly been in California, relying on possible fraud in blue cities. But the red wave has affected Congress and state-level races in the Republican direction. Will four years of a Biden/Harris presidency push more people red or blue? Thoughts on that effect here.

The media's memory-holing will kick into high gear now, eh?

Another reminder that the demand for racist hate exceeds the supply. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia engineered a ceasefire that locks in Azerbaijan's territorial gains against Armenia, and will man a ceasefire line with Russian troops. Armenia is unhappy about Russia locking in their territorial losses. But Russia can't afford to take on Turkey if push comes to shove. Of course, Turkey can't afford much, either.

Turkey continues to get squeezed out of northwestern Syria.

Is the mono-hull LCS design too crappy to bother trying to fix?

"Events" may well define the (for sake of argument and likely IMO) Biden presidency: "Given the U.S. focus on domestic policy, the opportunity for other countries to take advantage of this preoccupation is potentially significant. So the reality is that for the moment, the initiative shifts out of the United States."  

A style guide change just in time for the Biden administration! But "addled" is still okay, right?

It's good to be the king. But a lot of Thai people don't like living under one. 

China masters the simulation.

This author wants a rethink of the Light Amphibious Warfare ship the Navy wants for using Marines to support the Navy's sea control fight. I want a rethink, too, but in a different direction as I wrote about in Proceedings a few years ago. My proposal has the advantage of World War II experience behind it. Which would be a good thing to have in a hedging approach to design.

Well that's one way for Germany to counter Turkey without looking too obvious. But I'd be happier if the Germans had a big naval sale to their own navy.

Let's hope that if China goes to war with Australia that Australia has a contingency plan to capture New Zealand.

The fifteen remaining pro-democracy legislators in Hong Kong announced their resignation in protest of the lying, dictatorial, expansionist, and genocidal Chinese Communist Party--via their local puppets--removed 4 pro-democracy legislators.

United States Marines exercised with Taiwanese marines on Taiwan (via Instapundit). Hmmm.

With the updated interface on Blogger, I've noticed that formatting in older posts seems unstable when looked at. I corrected a typo on an old post and when I updated I lost paragraph formatting. I think I fixed it but it was based on my memory of having just looked at it. This is annoying. Perhaps I'll go back to classic editing--if I can--even though I've finally gotten used to the quirks of the new system. 

Good God! Okay, now I believe climate change is a crisis. Via Instapundit.

Remember when Democrats said Trump was hiding mail boxes and undermining the ability of the Post Office to deliver Democratic votes by mail? Good times. Good times.

New York Times reporter misspells "inconvenient" as "misinformation." I'm not the only one stunned at the ability of someone to think this way. Yeah, Democracy dies in ... this.

Hahaha! And yes, it is okay to laugh. Really, those are tears of laughter. I swear. 

Lovely little downtown you have there. It would be a shame if anything happened to it. 

Gold, God, and geography in Mali.

How did Trump get a third of the Moslem vote? I suspect that the anti-Iranian mullah foreign policy attracted a lot of Iranian Americans and Arab Americans with Gulf region heritage.

I cannot believe how angry studies like this make me. Right, you effing genius, America made Assad commit atrocities. One can complain that American intervention in the Syrian civil war was ineffective--and I have--but giving tyrants a pass on their atrocities or blaming America for war-related suffering because we didn't just let the dictator win quickly is stunningly wrong and offensive. Echelon above reality in action. To Hell with them.

An argument to move Israel to CENTCOM. It made sense to have Israel in EUCOM when Israeli aircraft would be very useful to fight Soviet naval and air forces in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Now the focus is on Iran in CENTCOM.

When Tlaib is right, she's right. The Democratic Party is a horrible organization that silences Diverse Voices.

I enjoy it when people discover that communists think that everyone who isn't a communist is a "fascist." Heck, even less bloodthirsty communists get the "fascist" treatment. Just ask Trotsky.

Evil in Number 12 pink lipstick. I have no doubt that she could find plenty of perfectly adequate reeducation camp guards and administrators, too. That's one way to get communists to stop rioting and burning, eh? Tip to Instapundit.

Around Ann Arbor I occasionally see "eat the rich" signs. The rich are never enough to feed the redistribution beast for the communists, of course. They claim to be for all mankind. But we know how that works:

No! Way!

Six American, one French, and one Czech peacekeeper died in a MFO helicopter crash in the Sinai. It's been a while since I've discussed MFO. Correction: Five Americans died.

Democrats took 4 years trying--and failing--to prove non-existent Trump-Russia collusion. Give Republicans 4 weeks or so to prove Democratic voter fraud.

This author thinks the Russians lost big in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war. What really shocked me is that apparently some people think the ceasefire was any sort of win at all for Russia. It looked like a defeat to me. I'm just not sure of the scale.

Perhaps Space Force needs a garbage collection service.

Trump's economy was very good. Better than the experts said it could get. So no, it wasn't Obama's economy. Say goodbye to that, I fear. Oh, and I guess everyone ignores the deficit and debt now. I'm not sure about the "trade war" charge. I'm in general a free trader. But it was a good idea to renegotiate trade patterns put in place after World War II when America was dominant and when we could afford terms favorable to allies and friends.

Yes: "In recent years, universities in the Anglosphere have gone from being citadels of intellectual consideration and experimentation to being factories of woke indoctrination. From critical race theory to genderfluidity, from the view of American history as one crime after another to the myopic policing of speech – including conversational speech in the form of ‘microaggressions’ – universities have become important transmitters of the ideologies of the new elites. As a consequence, one of the great ironies of our time is that it is those who have not attended a university who seem better able to think independently and to resist the coercions of elite-decreed correct-thought." The Democratic Party abandoned blue collar voters and individual civil liberties in my lifetime. Those factors were the only things that inspired some admiration in me. Defense and foreign policy pushed me to the Republican Party at a young age. Yet I grew up in a blue collar world. So respect for Democrats remained despite the leftist fringe apparent in the Democratic ranks. Higher education took me out of that blue collar world in most ways, but I never developed contempt for it. My respect and compassion for it remains. Where is that now in the Democratic Party? Nor was I seduced by the university woke indoctrination. It wasn't as bad back then as it is now. But perhaps my blue collar background made me more resistant to it. Anyway, read the whole thing. Tip to Instapundit. 

This is longish but an interesting video on the subject of Dunkirk. In graduate school I was exposed to "psychohistory" which purported to explain history by psychoanalyzing leaders making decisions. It is rubbish for the most part. When the professor was handing back an exam that included that, he said "You don't think much of psychohistory, do you?" No sir, I replied, a little worried about what that meant for my grade. I think one line in an essay went along these lines: "The idea that you can explain the German halt before Dunkirk based on childhood toilet training or some such thing when there are a host of valid strategic and tactical reasons for the Germans to refrain from trying to wipe out the British army trapped there is ridiculous." So yeah, reasons. I got an A.

Wow, the impressively corrupt and unwieldy Indian military procurement system screwed gang-raped the pooch using so-called Fast Track Procurement for an emergency order of ammunition from Russia. China continues to smile. 

I can't wait to find out where they have to wear masks. Via Instapundit.

The media sucks. Singing to the choir here at TDR.

Now this is what I call hope and change.

Wow! That's brilliant. It almost changed my mind. If 100 old people come in contact with 200 young people, is it really more effective to inoculate the 200 rather than the 100 when vaccines are initially limited? It's interesting, though. Doesn't it depend on what the ratio is? But regardless, I'll bet good money Holy Science won't be followed on deciding who gets inoculated first. Via Instapundit.

Oh please: "Ali Rabiei, spokesman for the Rouhani administration, said that Iran expects the United States to return to the nuclear deal without new conditions." The Iranians are still in shock from their apparent salvation from Trump's "maximum pressure" approach. Allahu Akbar, indeed. By the time Biden is inaugurated the Iranians will be demanding pallets of cash--and they'll probably get it.

American, German, and Dutch units joined the Greeks for air defense live fire exercises in Greece. Which is useful in case NATO needs to implement Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Does Trump's reshuffle in the Pentagon really reflect a desire by Trump to escalate confrontation with China in the South China Sea? I sincerely doubt it. But it might be a signal to deter China during the transition from escalating in the South China Sea. Which might be why American Marines exercised on Taiwan recently as I noted above in this data dump.

Target reopens Minneapolis store wrecked by looters with anti-looting shutters. Anti-looting shutters will just slow down the looters. Will the police arrive before the looters get past the barriers? That's really the key part.

Worries in Asia about a Biden commitment to opposing China.

Yeah, anybody evil enough to do that for four years over unfounded allegations would tear down our democracy. As an aside, for a long time I thought the idiocy coming from Joy Reid and Joy Behar was coming from a single person. I didn't know they were different people. Now I have to divide their perceived brain power in half.

Explain to me again how a "systemically racist" America went from race-based slavery to racial microaggressions and the first African-American president with that system? Nuance really eludes me.

Could we increase the extraction efficiency of fracking? Tip to Instapundit.

I have good news and bad news about America and minorities. The good news is that anybody can succeed here. The bad news is that if you do succeed you will be defined as "white" and therefore evil. I'm reminded of Catch 22. You could get out of the war if you were crazy. But only crazy people didn't want to get out of the war. Now, minorities can't succeed in systemically racist America. But if you succeed you must actually be white. Call it Catch 1619.

You have to admit that a widespread Democratic conspiracy to commit election fraud isn't needed if you spend four years convincing your loyalists and the history illiterate that Trump is Hitler. Then all you need to do is count on those people to individually carry out acts that collectively steal an election under the shield of believing they are saving the world from Hitler.

Twentieth century democide: "Soviet Union (61 million killed), Communist Chinese (38 million), Nazi Germany (20 million), Nationalist Chinese (10 million), Imperial Japan (six million), Cambodian communists (two million), Ottoman Turks (1.8 million), Vietnam (1.6), Polish communists (1.5 million), Pakistan (1.5 million) and Yugoslav communists (one million.)" And the pattern of violent Islamist uprisings.

Media people have just gone nuts. Maybe they need to look at the real problem.

The Marines activated a component for Space Command (not Space Force). How long before we have SMOD? Although now it is about integrating space assets for the Marines on the ground.

Will Biden actually answer questions from the media once he is president? (And barring some major challenge soon to give courts and elections outfits time to examine them, that seems likely at this point.) The media access question is moot because the relationship is so tight that the media can write pretty accurately about the next administration without any public forum at all. Heck, if Trump uses his post-presidency to start a media empire the mainstream media will be happy to continue their jihad against Trump in the private sector rather than focus on Biden. Tips to Instapundit.

Europe didn't help us much with military forces under Clinton, Bush 43, Obama, or Trump. Why would anyone think that Europe's relief at Biden's (barring a major change) victory will lead to more help rather than simple relief that they won't be loudly asked to do more?

For God's sake will morons with the memories of cocaine-addled hamsters stop saying Trump will deny a Xi Jinping Flu vaccine to New York? Governor Cuomo has politicized the issue by saying he won't trust "Trump's" vaccine. Trump was striking back by essentially saying that since you, the governor, don't trust the vaccine, I won't send it to New York unless you ask for it. 

Biden will attempt to reverse Trump's education reforms. I wonder if the public school teacher unions in their unjustified refusal to go back to school to teach our children did so much collateral damage by forcing parents to seek alternatives to the already-broken public school system that Biden can't restore the old system. And I wonder if remote learning in higher education will expose the system that padded luxury amenities and useless administrators onto actual teaching, which made tuition skyrocket. Will customers now forced to pay for all that padding while only getting the education part online want to resume paying for the whole mess when students go back to campus? Of course, the only real objective is to keep a loyal Democratic voting/donating/volunteering constituency employed with public funds--students be damned.

Hahaha!

Tell me this isn't likely:

On the other hand, given that Democrats claim Trump coddles the Russians, how will Biden ramp up already robust American efforts in NATO to block the Russians? Will Democratic rage against Russia preclude an effort to pry Russia away from China?

Happy birthday to the Marines on their 245th.

I assume our governor will issue new lockdown orders in time to cripple Thanksgiving. We'll see. [UPDATE Monday morning: Yes indeed.]

Okay, just one more:

The Electoral College timeline.

Okay I lied was mistaken:

The public's trust in scientists should take a hit when scientists enter politics. Look, I worked in a nonpartisan job. It was not difficult for me to stay out of politics and keep in my lane. That's why we were trusted.

No! Way! Just a shadow government masquerading as a network.

Trump supporters aren't going anywhere. They can't afford to disperse. The Left and their media allies may have figuratively killed the general, but Trump's supporters have reason to believe the Left will go around the battlefield killing the wounded and sending the rest to reeducation camps. Tip to Instapundit.

So Baby Yoda has provoked "genuine social media wrath?" Which means, what? Five people who you wouldn't associate with had a meltdown on Twitter? Tip to Instapundit.

That orbital habitat idea is interesting. Could some be turned into mobile rescue modules to house astronauts who mus flee a space station suffering a bad accident until rescue missions can be launched from Earth? Just musing. Via Instapundit.

The strident calls from Democrats to accept election results as counted without letting the process play out over time demonstrates the need to tighten up voting so election day counts are trusted. Relying on patience to discover fraud and error after the election in a system engineered by Democrats for fraud and error is clearly non-existent--when Democrats win, of course. Trump needs to fight now for the next election even if his own fortunes aren't high.

Feel the love and tolerance from the left and Neo-Lib Lincoln Project. Even if the news is incorrect about the law firm being intimidated into silence, the threat is the real story. The Lincoln Project of ex-Republicans masquerading as pure Republicans in Biden's service should remember that defectors are only really useful as cannon fodder to their new ruthless allies, who know they really can't trust you.

CSI: 2020 Campaign. Tip to Instapundit.

Measuring how much Biden cares about cancer. Tell me you are shocked. Tip to Instapundit.

Strategypage looks at the near-nuclear Taigei attack submarine class that will be coming into their fleet this decade. I first noted them a year ago in this data dump and again last month.

Yeah, where on Earth would we get the idea that Democrats love socialism?

Isn't it funny that despite apparently losing the election that Trump hasn't called out the military or legions of street thugs to nullify the election and kill or round up Biden supporters? I mean, it's been a 24/7 scream of rage the last four years asserting that Trump was signalling by dog whistles that any minute he'd be a tyrant. Instead he is using our courts to challenge the results pursuant to our system's rules.  

Democrat and media insistence that Trump has to say the word "concede" right now kept reminding me of something. Then it came to me. And it makes sense:

Democracy dies in darkness. I feared the worst when nothing was released in October. I guess Durham is going to wipe it clean, like with a cloth. So there will be no accountability for the Obama administration and it's allies within the Trump administration for their coup under color of law. They got away with it. Via Instapundit.

Antifa is initiating violence despite the failure of Trump to win the initial and tentative count.

If Trump has evidence of serious fraud and error in his election battle with Biden, he needs to push it into the open soon to have time to resolve the charges. The election process will continue and confirm Biden if Trump does nothing to reverse the apparent electoral count win.

Weakheart

Scotland's secession from the United Kingdom would harm Britain's military with the loss of bases and recruits. Would Scotland really do this over Brexit complications? 

This article speculates that Scotland could lease a key bases to Britain and pay for a military of this scale: 

That, he estimates, could fund Scottish armed forces comprising 8,500 soldiers and sailors, 20 ships and 50 planes and drones—comparable to Ireland or New Zealand.

Six years ago I speculated on Scotland's military: 

I assumed that with a population of 5.3 million, a GDP of $216 billion, and a commitment to spend a paltry 1.2% of GDP, that Scotland could have a small but good military on the assumption that British tradition in this regard would continue.

Looking at what the Czechs, Norwegians, and Dutch field as rough guides, I assumed Scotland could have an army of one brigade (with a mix of mechanized and light infantry) plus reserve Home Guard type local defense forces, an air force of 24 fighter aircraft (total in inventory, including trainers and spares) and 6 naval patrol aircraft, and a navy of 4 frigates and 8 large patrol craft as the main force.

My estimate didn't include any payments from Britain. Would Scotland remain in NATO? If so, I doubt absent a British payment that Scotland would meet the 2% defense spending goal. 

And according to the article I linked to back then, Scotland's military would be hollow. But maybe the more recent rent payment idea would allow my speculative military.

Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

South Korea has a new submarine that they built. This is a sign of South Korea's expanding military reach beyond the DMZ.

Ballistic missiles doesn't mean nuclear. But it could be if North Korea goes nuclear. South Korea has a new sub:

South Korea held a ceremony for a new 3,000-ton submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles.

 This is the start of a sea-going navy and not one focused on the flanks of the DMZ:

The South Korean defense minister also said threats are rising in the world's seas, and that Seoul's navy will be "reborn as an advanced ocean navy, with the next generation of Korean destroyers and a 4,000-ton submarine."

I noted this shift in 2007 when South Korea embarked on this blue water program:

South Korea is a major trading power with shipbuilding industries thriving on foreign orders. They just launched a large Aegis-equipped destroyer for their growing fleet.

With a large GDP reliant on trade, South Korea now has the need to have open access to the sea. With a large GDP, South Korea has the means to protect those sea lines of communication. And with China heading out to sea, South Korea has the impetus to build a fleet capable of defending those sea lines of communication.

As I noted more recently, North Korean military weakness allows the shift:

As South Korea's trade has gone global, why is it shocking that South Korea feels a need to have a navy that can contest any efforts to cut them off from the rest of the world?

Yes, there is a point that having a navy would be pointless if North Korea drove south through inadequate South Korean ground forces backed by insufficient air power.

But that isn't the situation, is it? North Korea's military power has rotted away over the last 20 years while South Korean ground power has expanded in quality.

The only reason North Korea still poses a threat is because South Korea's capital, Seoul, is within artillery range of North Korea.

And Seoul has a quarter of South Korea's population (if memory serves me).

But I don't believe North Korea has the ability to take Seoul unless they make massive use of chemical weapons and that use causes the near-complete collapse of the South Korean army. If that happens, North Korea might be able to organize a largely unopposed road march into Seoul.

Oh, and the South Koreans will have a light carrier.

South Korea is becoming a regional power.

Geography of Power Projection

How often have I noted this basic reality constraining force design and pushing for intervention (whether peacetime or kinetic)?

Although U.S. policymakers do not often state explicitly in public the goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia, U.S. military operations in World War I and World War II, as well as numerous U.S. military wartime and day-to-day operations since World War II, appear to have been carried out in no small part in support of this goal. ...

The goal of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons in Eurasia is a major reason why the U.S. military is structured with force elements that enable it to deploy from the United States, cross broad expanses of ocean and air space, and then conduct sustained, large-scale military operations upon arrival in Eurasia or the waters and airspace surrounding Eurasia. 

This objective is just one reason I oppose the European Union.

And how often have I reminded readers that unlike allies and enemies who simply need to drive off their home base, leave home port, or take off from a home airfield to be in the combat zone? America needs to spend a lot of money to create the ability to move a military overseas and sustain it even before the first combat power is purchased.

A short but useful document.

Will Poland Be Thrown Under the Bus--Again?

Poland hopes to lock in its defense ties with America despite Biden's apparent victory:

Polish President Andrzej Duda ratified a defence agreement with the United States on Monday that cements a greater U.S. troop presence in the country and he said Warsaw’s relations with Washington should not be affected by the U.S. election.

This will probably work given the sudden Democratic hatred of Russia and the public relations disaster the new Obama administration triggered by walking away from a defense project in Poland. 

But then again, that 2009 policy was not reversed. And the socialist wing of the modern Democratic Party is stronger now. So perhaps I shouldn't be so confident that this defense agreement won't be cancelled next year.

The Next Tank. This Time For Sure!

The Army is hoping to have a design for replacing the aging Abrams main battle tank soon. I'm just hoping the Army chooses an actual tank.

Three sizes are on offer with the Army trying to figure out which one is just right:

A smaller vehicle could retain a large gun, but carry less ammunition. It would also be lighter, allowing it to be carried by aircraft such as the C-17 Globemaster III, and substitute traditional heavy tank armor for an active protection system.

A medium-sized vehicle would be in the weight class of the M1A2 Abrams, while a large vehicle would be even bigger, retaining heavy armor to shrug off enemy anti-tank gun rounds and missiles but at the expense of strategic mobility. The medium and large tanks would be about the same width, in order to fit on railroad cars. 

Eighteen years ago in Military Review (starting on page 28) I was skeptical that the Army could design a tank Future Combat System capable of being strategically deployable in numbers and still be lethal and survivable.

A lighter tank could be useful if it is intended to provide more and more easily replaced tanks. I think that replacing passive armor with active protections, rather than supplementing the passive armor, is vulnerable to work-arounds. [And sorry, sometimes I'm horrified at how long my early blog paragraphs were.]

If the purpose of choosing a light model is to airlift them, give up on that fantasy. Only small numbers can be airlifted overseas from the continental United States faster than ships can move them. If memory serves me, once you get up to a full brigade for a Stryker brigade it's a toss up as to whether air or sea travel is faster. And that's if the Air Force doesn't have higher priorities for always-scarce heavy airlift.

A heavy tank is probably insane unless bridging equipment in our engineers is up to the task. Let's not even speculate on whether civilian bridges in our allies'--let alone enemies'-- territory will be upgraded to handle them.

So "medium" on the order of our already heavy Abrams is probably the only other real option.

What will it be? Will the Army choose another Abrams secure in the knowledge that active protection systems will make the expensive tank survivable? Or will the Army seek a new Sherman tank that is lethal enough but not terribly survivable--but able to be mass produced? 

Would it be too much to ask to build the medium tank, but with options built in to strip the design of much of its armor and gadgets to make it a simpler and lighter tank in case of a long war of attrition against a peer nation requires mass production?

UPDATE: Is upgrading the M-1 the best option for the next tank? Maybe. But doesn't the basic platform run into limits for upgrading before too long?

Hiding the Big Skedaddle

The United States is pretending that we have a reliable foe that we can negotiate with in Afghanistan. Sadly, losing that war is a bipartisan objective.

We really can't trust the Taliban to make peace: 

Americans want to be done with the military and economic costs of having troops in Afghanistan. The problem with that attitude is that Americans can leave Afghanistan but Afghanistan won’t leave America. The heroin production will continue and major Islamic terrorist groups will have a sanctuary from which to plan attacks on the Wests, especially the United States.

We should be working to help the Afghan government and local entities kill the Taliban more effectively; and killing Taliban from the air to support them. 

We had to engage in Iraq War 2.0 after prematurely walking away. Do we want to face that situation in Afghanistan, too, or pay the relatively small price to defend what we achieved at a large cost?

I fear I know the answer. And note that in that October 2013 post I was openly worried about Iraq. 

UPDATE: Eric who does work here emails that he argued that Obama failed to use his opportunity to convince the American people to hold fast long enough to win the war.

As I addressed in that last link in the original post, I don't think Obama had any intention of winning the Afghanistan campaign. He ran for president opposed to the Iraq War, claiming it "distracted" America from winning the "real" war on terror in Afghanistan. His only objective for his surge was to pretend he wanted to win in Afghanistan long enough to proclaim a win and win reelection.

Putting a Picatinny Rail On the Tip of the Spear

Precision provides speed until the other side had precision, too. Being first will be nice but it won't be the last word in battlefield dominance.

The Army wants to push more lethal weaponry, technology and capabilities down to the infantry at the tip of the spear:

The [Army Maneuver Center of Excellence] also wants to push emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning down to small units that are employing small drones or ground robots.

“How can we apply artificial intelligence to help soldiers and leaders in small units make better decisions faster?” [Donald Sando] asked.

Sando asked for industry’s assistance in solving an age-old problem: how to help rifle or scout platoons target enemy combatants in a firefight who have taken cover either underground or behind walls.

“I have to solve that problem as fast as I can with the weapon systems that I have on site. I can't be waiting for fire support or air support or anything else,” he noted.

The objective is a more lethal platoon that can organically solve its own tactical problems. While the Army would like to be able to destroy enemies with distant precision, a close fight can't be the Army's weak point where casualties are the price of doing business:

“If we can't avoid [the close fight], we want to enter it under conditions that are favorable to us. Makes sense, right? If I got to get in a gun fight, I want to go in under my terms. And when you're in it, you’ve got to win it and you’ve got to win it fast,” Sando said.

The longer a skirmish lasts, the longer troops remain vulnerable, he noted. “We don't need hours-long fights. They're good for the Movie Channel, but they're not good for the modern battle.”

I've been writing about this link between precision and speed for years. Four years ago I collected a lot of links to old posts in this post:

Precision firepower continues to get cheaper. Once expensive and only deliverable by specialized aircraft, precision firepower is reaching individual troops. This will speed battle tempo tremendously. ...

We already have plenty of precision air power and tube and rocket precision at brigade and higher levels.

Add in drone/grenades or mortar rounds (as a mini-air force for both strike and surveillance capabilities, and communications), precision 60mm mortar rounds at the platoon level, guided 81mm mortar rounds at the company level, and precision 120mm mortars at the battalion level, and we speed up the tempo of conventional operations tremendously by reducing the need to call up the chain of command for needed support, when coupled with Blue Force Tracker technology that lets our commanders see where their troops are.

With an anti-tank round, the XM25 also puts a portable weapon with relatively cheap rounds capable of destroying light armored vehicles in a squad to supplement more expensive anti-tank missiles or unguided rockets. 

Still, it isn't all sunshine and walks in the park if the Army achieves that, as I commented on after noting precision rifle research:

In one sense [precision rifles] is kind of scary. We count on training to make our troops superior and not just our technology edge. If even ill-trained troops can shoot that well with similar technology, that edge drains away in one key area.

On the bright side, we will be able to focus training on other aspects of being a soldier to maintain our broader training edge. But we will have to change our training to take this into account.

And if we network all this stuff, precision firepower at lower levels and persistent surveillance will keep our ground forces very lethal with the ability to shoot first and kill enemies quickly--and even defend our troops.

Although what we do when we run low the precision rounds is another question. Then battle tempo will slow down despite the technology. 

Last year I noted that problem of the enemy catching up:

The ability to reduce the work load at the pointy end of the stick in calling in fires and effects is an important capability to gain. It will speed up battle tempo. Until it doesn't.

In 2018 on the Naval Institute Blog I wrote about adapting to precision rifle technology in the hands of enemies to maintain American ground force superiority.

But until then, I agree that pushing precision down to lower levels will speed up battle tempo, as I wrote in 2009:

Being able to use organic precision firepower means that units can handle threats without calling on brigade or higher level artillery/rocket assets or air power. Fewer problems will be beyond the capacity of the battalion to defeat.

This will speed up our units by allowing our units to keep advancing more quickly without waiting for outside assets to handle a threat that organic firepower is unable to deal with quickly.

Of course, eventually we'll face conventional enemies with this capability. Then speed won't be just our advantage. 

Indeed, I was on to this in 2007 before precision was pushed down as much as we are seeing today:

Precision munitions aren't just about accuracy. They are about speed. ...

Coupled with recon assets that now roam the battlefield, precision strike capability will continue this speeding up effect. Our ground forces can look to the day in conventional combat where we kick off attacks and count on our forces to spot enemies during the advance and then destroy them with precision weapons when identified. The speed of reaction may very well allow us to fight in damn near march order in non-urban areas without having to pause to deploy against resistance unless it is a major force well dug in and concealed.

And precision fire support means that line units won't need to fire as much because supporting units to the rear and in the air will take out the targets. And those supporting units won't need to resupply as often, too. So pauses to resupply will dwindle.

Given that night vision gear and land navigation abilities based on GPS allow us to operate 24/7, the limits of human endurance will be the next brake on the speed of combat tempo. We're working on that, too. 

I think I was writing about it in 2004, but I think I lost a lot of 2004 posts prior to the transition to Blogger, as I lamented last year:

I know I blogged about 3rd Infantry Division's cavalry squadron in the 2003 invasion of Iraq reflecting this speed/precision link, but it must be on the mostly dead Yahoo!Geocities version of The Dignified Rant pre-December 2004.

Just because the advantage is likely to be fleeting until enemies can do the same thing, I'd rather be first.