Extending the Surge?

Spring 2008 seems to be the practical limits of the military surge in Iraq. I base this both on the stretching of our Army and Marines and the limits of our political will.

But what if the political will strengthens this fall? Could we extend the surge to spring 2009 without continuing our 15-month Army tours?

Consider that we need 20 brigades in Iraq and 2 in Afghanistan. Also assume we go back to 12-month Army deployments. Plus we need overlap to replace units, so just saying we need 44 brigades doesn't work. We need 1.15 brigades (I think) to keep a brigade in the field for one year.

So to keep 22 brigades in the field for a year, assume we need 51 brigades (44 x 1.15).

We have 41 active Army brigades with one more to create. We have 8 Marine regimental combat teams with one more to be built. Subtract 2 Army brigades (1 in South Korea and 1 as the ready brigade strategic reserve) and 2 Marine regiments (to allow for MEU deployments at sea). So we have 45 brigades available.

But didn't we just alert four National Guard brigades to be ready? Yes we did. This takes us up to 49. If we have another Army brigade by next year we get to 50. If we assume that the reserve Marine division could shake loose another regiment, we are up to 51--the bare minimum to extend the surge.

It is doable, it seems. If the need and the political will are present. And it would sure help if we didn't need 20 brigades in Iraq to continue the surge.