Are the declinists right about America’s impending demise? Perhaps. But perhaps they’re wrong: After all, declinism has a long history and a strange way of rearing its head when the U.S. is riding the waves of what Churchill called the “primacy of power.” Indeed, it is during periods of U.S. ascendance — or perhaps better said, periods that subsequently are recognized as having been ascendant — that the declinists usually start sounding the (false) alarms. The “decline and fall of America” mantra has become an almost-decennial prophecy.
We are not destined to sweep aside every threat we've faced, but we've done pretty well so far against monarchies, militarists, fascists, communists, managed economies, and post-conflict soft power, to stand astride the globe.
And to speak of our decline you must also ask who will replace us? Really, there aren't candidates for this job despite what you might read. Demographics aren't exactly catapulting any potential candidates past us:
The scope of the aging process is remarkable. By 2050 at least 20 percent of the citizens in these countries will be over 65; in Japan more than 33 percent will be. China alone will have more than 329 million people over 65. The populations of Germany, Japan, and Russia are expected to shrink significantly. Russia's population is already decreasing by nearly 700,000 people per year.
The aging problem in the other great powers is so severe that, in coming decades, they will lack the resources to overtake America's huge power advantages. Graying populations will hinder countries' economic growth as working-age populations (ages 15 to 64) shrink, and will strain governmental resources as public spending for retirees' pensions and healthcare balloons. This is true even for China, America's most likely future rival. Indeed, China's economic expansion is already threatened by labor shortages due to population aging. China is also particularly unprepared to pay for the costs of an aging population. China's elderly have very little savings, the government has set aside little money for their welfare, and the family structure (the traditional form of social security) is weakening. Exploding public elderly care costs are likely to force cuts in all other discretionary spending, including for economic development and defense.
Although America's population is also aging, this country is in much better shape. The United States is the "youngest" of all the Group of Eight nations. Because it has the highest fertility and immigration rates of all the great powers, it will maintain -- even strengthen -- this position in coming decades. America's working-age population as a result is expected to expand significantly in this period. Compared with other great powers, the United States also has a relatively well-funded pension system; its public welfare commitments to the elderly are modest; its citizens work many more hours per year and significantly later in life; and its tax burden is low.
Our economic, military, scientific, social, and demographic strengths have combined to place us at our present position. And even if we slip in one or two areas for a time, our breadth of power can allow us to recover. And nobody is positioned to catch up across this broad range.
It doesn't mean we must remain dominant, of course. We have to earn that every day. And remain committed to being dominant. Perhaps we're the only country that can knock us down from the top slot.
But a lot of people who thought we would slip up to their advantage are historical footnotes.
UPDATE: While Joel Achenbach cautions against assuming continued success, he says to bet on America:
But the burden of proof ought to be on the declinists. The evidence for our nation's downward spiral isn't sufficient to rule out the very opposite possibility: that the United States will become, in purely geopolitical terms, even stronger in coming decades. The mistake we make is not so much overestimating our problems, but underestimating the problems of our potential rivals. We think we're the only country with decline-and-fall issues.
Every despotism or socialist paradise that has tried to replace us (and this includes the European Union) has faltered. We may be replace one day as the top power, but not by the current crop of top-down stagnation masters. Let me know when a large technologically advanced democracy appears on the scene.
So maybe--if they resolve a whole bunch of problems-India will one day pass us.
But until then, I'd keep betting on America.
