The flawed assumptions of Vietnam and Iraq are nearly mirror images of one another.
In Vietnam , Kennedy and other policymakers believed in the "domino theory": If South Vietnam fell, other U.S. allies in the region— Thailand , Malaysia , Singapore, the Philippines , Indonesia — also would fall to the communists.
In Iraq , Bush and the neoconservative policymakers in the Pentagon and in Vice President Dick Cheney's office had a democracy theory: Implanting democracy in Iraq would be easy, and from there it would spread to Syria , Egypt , Saudi Arabia and beyond. The fact that the most democratic nation in the region, by most standards, is Iran and that Islamists dominate some of the region's most popular political parties, including Hamas in the Palestinian territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon , seems not to have made much of an impression.
Why is the domino theory so discredited? All it is saying is that there is such a thing as momentum, or success being built on success. That idea is controversial?
As for the particulars of Vietnam, in 1965 those dominoes could have fallen if South Vietnam had gone communist. Thailand and Indonesia might have gone down. Malaya and Singapore, too. But in 1975? Different story. The neighboring states had a decade to strengthen themselves. Our fight in Vietnam bought that time and in the end, only two dominoes--Laos and Cambodia--fell.
As for the Middle East today, al Qaeda certainly fears democracy. They've said as much about Iraq. And part of democracy is that the people taking responsibility for their government. In time, if democracy holds, the fanatics will lose. Is the general really justifying despotism to keep people from choosing their leaders? Democracy doesn't mean you get one vote, one time, and you'd better get it right that one time. And until voters shape up, we at least know where they stand. Clarity simplifies things, in my opinion. No hiding from your responsibilities.
Further, unless the Republicans and Democrats have armed men (and I can't speak to the Greens here. Lord knows what they have), it is very misleading to call Hamas and Hizbollah "political parties." They are terrorists who are willing to pursue their goals in elections, too.
And any analysis that starts by saying Iran is most democratic government in the region is a joke and seriously suspect.
In the end, comparing Iraq to Vietnam can be made only at the most basic level.
The funny thing is, we did win the war in Vietnam. We defeated the enemy militarily. And by non-military means we deprived the Viet Cong of support. Then our Congress lost the war for us by denying military aid to Saigon in the face of the North Vietnamese conventional invasion. I wish that result had made any impression at all on this general.
