Tuesday, August 14, 2007

The End of the Beginning?

I was on vacation and away from the web when the O'Hanlon and Pollack piece came out. With only CNN for news, I was struck at the time by the change in tone on progress in Iraq. But I only saw a small bit of news so it was only when I got back home and plugged in again that I realized that it was a broader trend emerging. The assumption of defeat was broken. Not reversed, but dented at least.

And now the German press (of all places!) is displaying glimmers of the trend:

Ramadi is an irritating contradiction of almost everything the world thinks it knows about Iraq -- it is proof that the US military is more successful than the world wants to believe. Ramadi demonstrates that large parts of Iraq -- not just Anbar Province, but also many other rural areas along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers -- are essentially pacified today. This is news the world doesn't hear: Ramadi, long a hotbed of unrest, a city that once formed the southwestern tip of the notorious "Sunni Triangle," is now telling a different story, a story of Americans who came here as liberators, became hated occupiers and are now the protectors of Iraqi reconstruction.


We could truly be in a turning point in perceptions or it could be a blip. Much depends on how the rest of the year goes. Since I've expressed how perplexed I am that my perception of our accumulating victory isn't widely shared, I should be eager to jump on the turning point thesis.

But I won't. Even if all the turning point talk is real, we have a long way to go inside Iraq to win this campaign. I have also mentioned that I feared the surge would unrealistically heighten expectations for rapid victory among war supporters and risk this core of war support.

Remember, too, that Iraq is not the entire war on terror despite the emphasis on Iraq right now. We have further yet to go in the wider war, though our momentum should get a good boost with victory in Iraq.

I do not see the beginning of the end. But this may be the end of the beginning.

UPDATE: Tony Blankley uses the German article to argue:

We see evidence that the Democrats are beginning to appreciate the truth of the above description. The New York Times has suddenly started counseling caution about any immediate departure from Iraq. Sen. Obama's steroid-enhanced rhetoric now has him calling -- Rambo-like -- for possible preemptive war against Pakistan. Sen. Hillary Clinton announces that she might use nuclear weapons against terrorists (I hope she doesn't find the terrorist in New York (where one of my sons lives) or London (my hometown).) The Democratic Congressional leaders quickly passed President Bush's requested FISA electronic intercepts authority for the president.

The Democrats, after spending the winter, spring and early summer frantically calling to get out of Iraq as fast as their little feet could carry them, are now, as autumn approaches, demonstrating their Olympic-class backpedaling skills.

By winter (with the complicity of the drive-by media -- hat tip to Rush), the Democrats hope to expunge the historic record of their failure of war nerve this spring. This is the moment for Republicans -- from the president, to the candidates for president, to the incumbents and challengers for offices all the way down to dog catcher (and especially dog catcher) to remind the public of the springtime Democratic Party defeatism and lost nerve.

While true, this is premature and possibly short-sighted if carried to extremes. We must focus on the victory first. We won the Cold War without the Left's help and survived their successful effort to portray themselves as partners in winning the Cold War. We will survive a victory in Iraq that everyone clamors to claim as their own. Yet another mythical French "resistance" might breed habits of strength in the short run, after all, as it might have done after the Cold War was won.